Fantasy Basketball

Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Christmas Day Edition

melo land
Source: Alex Goodlett/Getty Images North America

Today’s special Christmas day edition of the NBA daily fix features a couple players at each position that I highly recommend for today’s 5-game slate. In addition to the two player breakdowns per position, I’ll add a cheap risk option if applicable and tell you which ballers I am fading (not using) tonight. At the end I will list the top-5 players I’ll be using at each position in cash games today. Remember that this is written up in advance of any starting lineup or most inactive updates. Be sure to keep your eyes on Twitter and/or Rotoworld for updates that could change things in a big way. Good luck to you all and, I hope DFS Santa brings you all straight cash, homie!

Point Guards:

Tony Parker ($3000?!?) – This had to be a screw up on DraftKings end or possibly a Christmas gift as Parker should never be listed at the minimum price. If Parker plays as expected, he is a must use even if he’ll be 99% owned. The Spurs wouldn’t be playing him if he weren’t 100%, so he shouldn’t see much, if any, limitation.

Chris Paul ($10,200) – Paul is the cheapest of the four top-tier point guards going today and has possibly the best matchup of any of them. With a beautiful 217.5 over/under on this game between the Clips and Warriors, I like CP3 to do his usual 50 DK point output with a nice output of points, assists and steals. If you’re unable to form a lineup you’re confident in using Russell Westbrook ($12,000!!), then I would look to CP3.

Derrick Rose ($6900) – In season long leagues I was fully passing on Rose and even in DFS I’m normally skeptical, but for this small game slate and at this good price, I like Rose to play above value against the Lakers who are 30th against point guards. Just hope that the Bulls don’t jump out to a huge lead early, but either way Rose should have around a 40 DK point day.

Cheap risk plays: Aaron Brooks ($4200) should see a lot of court time again with Hinrich out, and if the game does get out of hand he’d have even more opportunity to rack up points. While I don’t like the matchup at all, the depleted guards for the Knicks leaves Jose Calderon ($4800) getting a lot of usage and coming off back-to-back 35 DK point outings. He’s a good G or Util option.

PGs I’m fading tonight: Stephen Curry and John Wall only because if I’m paying a ton for a point guard it’s going to be Westrbook or Paul. Fading Curry is always dangerous, but I’m taking the chance today.

Shooting Guards:

Dwyane Wade ($8400) – Assuming Wade will be a go again today, his usage rate is just insanely high when Chris Bosh is sidelined (already confirmed). If I have the budget, Wade is my SG of choice whether LeBron will be chasing him around or not.

Bradley Beal ($6400) – I like Beal and Danny Green today and was torn on who to put here. The Knicks are 24th against shooting guards and Tim Hardaway Jr. will have his work cut out for him trying to keep up with Beal in today’s first game. I think the young gun puts up a 40 spot on DK.

Cheap risk plays: Manu Ginobili ($5000) likes to show up big in key matchups like this one versus OKC. He’s a mid-level priced guy who seems a safe bet for at least around 25 DK points. Jamal Crawford ($4700) will be on most of my teams due to his price and being a top scorer in a game with such a high over/under. If you need even cheaper Marco Belinelli ($4000) is a risky play, but at this cost it’s a decent gamble with Kawhi Leonard out and Belinelli in line for around 30 minutes.

SGs I’m fading: Kobe Bryant in a tough matchup with Jimmy Butler and supposedly having his minutes “watched.”

Small Forwards:

Carmelo Anthony ($10,400) – Melo voiced his disappointment in missing the Christmas day game last season, and he made it clear he’d be a go this time. The Wizard forwards will not be able to stop Anthony from scoring in bunches, and I think they’ll make their game plan to let Melo take a ton of shots and score however many he can but shutting down the rest of their offensive options. One guy scoring 40 isn’t going to get you a W against this talented Wizards team, but for DFS purposes, I have a shooting-the-lights-out Carmelo Anthony near the top of my wish list.

Draymond Green ($7300) – If I don’t pay up for Melo, I’m likely going with Dray in my SF slot. After an absolute disaster game for he and his teammates against the Lakers, I expect a big bounce back game where Green will light up the stat sheet like a Christmas tree. Look for him to do around his season DK point average of 32.

Cheap risk plays: I don’t see much for cheap options at this position. but if I had to name one it’d be Shawn Marion ($3200) only because he’s near the minimum, gets more than 20 minutes a game and could net you 20-25, but it’s nowhere near a sure bet.

SFs I’m fading: There’s really no fades here for me. Just make sure you know that Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard have been ruled out.

Power Forwards:

Pau Gasol ($9000) – Sweet, sweet revenge! Pau must have been extra nice this year for Santa to grant him his number one wish on this primetime day as he’ll get to annihilate his ex-team. The Lakers have nobody that can stop Pau from doing whatever he wants in this game whether it be in the paint or at the T. Pau should rack up 40 DK points if the Bulls run away with it and he sits late, and 50 DK points if it stays fairly close.

Tristan Thompson ($5100) – This is one of the more obvious plays of the day. With Anderson Varejao shelved for the rest of the season (shocking…) Tristan hops in as the starting center for the Cavs and should see over 30 minutes a night until they bring in another big man. The matchup against the Heat isn’t perfect, but TT should be able to deliver a DD (double-double) for his owners. The concern is his lack of steals and blocks but still getting 25ish DK points from a $5100 guy in your F slot on a small slate is solid.

Cheap risk plays: If Festus Ezeli can’t go, Marreese Speights ($4300) should get the start, and he’s shown when given playing time he can really put up impressive stat lines. Ed Davis ($4200) should see a fair share of minutes with Carlos Boozer getting owned on the defensive side by Pau. Ed has the potential to score in double digits, grab a handful of boards and block a shot or two which ends up as  a fine DFS day for a low priced guy. Udonis Haslem ($3000) has averaged 21 DK points in his last three games, so if you need to throw a minimum level dart, he’s an option.

PFs I’m fading: Kevin Love just because the matchup isn’t great and I like other options better today at PF.

Centers:

DeAndre Jordan ($8500) – Call me crazy, but I just can’t see Festus Ezeli or Marreese Speights being able to stop DJ from dominating the glass. While Speights is a decent player, he’s too undersized for DJ and should allow Jordan plenty of opportunities for blocks. With a floor of around 34 and an upside of 50, I really like Dre today.

Jordan Hill ($5300) – There’s not a lot of options at center today with Chris Bosh and Andrew Bogut out, so if you can’t go with DeAndre, you’re going to be playing on thin ice. If I pass on Dre, there are only two guys I’m looking to today and one is Hill. Sure, his minutes have been up and down as has his play of late, but Hill has a fair price tag and a decent matchup with the Bulls. There’s obvious downside here, but I just have a feeling that Hill becomes a good play today (near 30 DK points) only because of his price.

Cheap risk plays: The Thunder are going to need Steven Adams ($4400) in this one against the Spurs. He should get his usual 25-minutes and with it should come somewhere between 20-26 DK points. It’s nothing special, but at the price, it’s a definite option if you decide to go pricy at other positions.

Cs I’m fading: Marcin Gortat who should be decent but I’m either going with a higher price option or a lot lower priced targets today.

Cash game positional rankings: (These are in the order that I’ll be using them based on situation + price, NOT who I think will score the most)

PG:
1) Tony Parker (if he plays obviously)
2) Derrick Rose
3) Chris Paul
4) Russell Westbrook
5) Aaron Brooks
6) Jose Calderon

SG:
1) Dwyane Wade
2) Bradley Beal
3) Jamal Crawford
4) Danny Green
5) Manu Ginobili
6) Dion Waiters

SF:
1) Carmelo Anthony
2) Draymond Green
3) LeBron James
4) Paul Pierce
5) Shawn Marion

PF:
1) Pau Gasol
2) Tristan Thompson
3) Marreese Speights (if Ezeli out)
4) Blake Griffin
5) Ed Davis
6) Amar’e Stoudemire

C:
1) DeAndre Jordan
2) Steven Adams
3) Jordan Hill
4) Joakim Noah

For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions you may have answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44

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1 Comment

  1. December 25, 2014 at 10:46 pm

    Like the site nice work.