Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 6, 2015
I know it’s football Sunday, but if you’re like me, you already have your lineups set for the week and can start studying up for DFS. Today we’re going to breakdown the four-game evening NBA slate on DraftKings. Four a small slate, this looks to be a pretty high scoring night thanks to some of the league’s biggest scorers. Let’s get right to it.
Vegas lines and totals
LA Lakers (-9) @ Detroit — total of 197
Golden State (-10) @ Brooklyn — 209
Dallas (-2) @ Washington — 207.5
Sacramento (+11) @ Oklahoma City — 220
Can’t. Stop. Staring. At. That. 220. Total…. Usually a 209 total is pretty tantalizing, but when a game has a 220 total, it’s hard to not want to go mega-stack that game. Crazy to think that there’s a game with a 220 total and it’s not the game involving the 21-0 Warriors. OK, let’s get to the top plays of the night.
Russell Westbrook ($10,400) – When Kevin Durant is out, Russ is a must play, but as we’ve seen in recent games, just because KD is back doesn’t mean that Russ isn’t a top-tier fantasy performer. The Kings are one of the worst in the league defensively, especially against point guards. With scorers like Russ in a game projected so highly, you want the top players, period. I’m expecting nothing less than 50+ fantasy points (FPs) from Westy tonight.
Reggie Jackson ($7,700) – No matter how great or average a starting point guard is that’s going up against the Lakers, I always find a way to get them into at least one lineup. When it comes to a player as good as Reggie Jackson taking on the Lakers, it’s almost a must play for me. Jackson has been a bit boom or bust (reasonably speaking, usually gets at least 30 on “down” nights) lately, but I can’t foresee this being a bad night for him. Be sure to mix him in, especially if you try a contrarian lineup where you fade Russ.
Cheap risk option: Lou Williams ($4,100) has gotten 30+ minutes in back-to-back games, and at this price on a night that you want to fit a few studs in the lineup, it’s tough to not use a guy like Lou at this price. After his play the last two games with extended minutes, I can’t see even Byron Scott ruining this.
Kobe Bryant ($6,100) – If you want to fit in big money guys elsewhere, you have to go mid-tier or value options in spots as well, and Kobe fits right in that mid-tier zone. Bryant may miss a lot of shots, but he takes so many shots that he still ends up with fine fantasy nights. 33, 41, 32 and 25 FPs the last four games for Kobe despite shooting a disgusting 26.6% from the field in those games. Yeah… And if he miraculously shoots it well, you have a big time steal.
Jordan Clarkson ($5,800) – Clarkson isn’t a great option, but I’m just leaning to the mid-tier guys at SG tonight or punt it totally. He does play 30+ minutes most of the time and will get you anywhere from 22 to 30 FPs most nights. I’m either going with Kobe or cheaper more than likely though.
Cheap risk option: These are all extremely risky and inconsistent options, but to fit the big guns in your lineups, you have to take some chances and this may be a spot that I do just that. Here are the couple guys that I’ll toss in lineups as punt plays: Dion Waiters ($4,200), Ben McLemore ($3,500), Brandon Rush ($3,500), Gary Neal ($3,200) and Andre Roberson ($3,200). Pick your poison.
Kevin Durant ($10,200) – One of the best scorers in the league and he’s in the game projected at 220, on the team projected at over 120 points, yeah, gimme that. I could bore you with more reasoning, but it’s KD in a high scoring game, guys…
Marcus Morris ($6,400) – Morris has been really solid lately and is playing major minutes nightly for the Pistons, so he’s absolutely in play against the Lakers who have not been good against opposing small forwards, oh who am I kidding? The Lakers are just terrible defensively, period. I just prefer Morris for a little less money than Rudy Gay tonight as my secondary SF play.
Cheap risk option: Chandler Parsons ($4,100) is still playing limited minutes, but he got up to 27 in the last Mavs game, so maybe there’s a 30 minute night looming for us? Either way, he’s cheap and should get about 20 FPs, and if he happens to get hot in his stints, he could go for a good bit more.
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,800) – Big Cuz continues the stud targeting in the Kings/Thunder game, as he’s obviously another top option in this big scoring game. DMC has had two consecutive down games after a few of his typical monstrous lines, so look for him to bounce back in a big way against a tough foe like OKC. I tend to lean to the Thunder duo over Cousins if I have to choose just two of them, but I’ll have some shares of the Boogie man as well.
Thaddeus Young ($6,900) – I started to use Draymond here, but with the Warriors playing the backend of a back-to-back set and fourth straight road game, I think it may be better to just shoot a little cheaper with Young. At this price, I’m totally fine with cashing in Thad for around 35 DK points against a tired Warriors roster.
Cheap risk option: Well, there’s a big mystery as to who which of the Wizard bigs will give it a go, but with Marcin Gortat out again, if Nene Hilario ($4,100) or Kris Humphries ($3,800) give it a go, they’ll be the bargain play of the night. If neither of those guys are active tonight, I would lean to going super cheap with Brandon Bass ($3,400) who never does anything special, but he’s put up 19 and 17 FPs in the last two games at least.
Andre Drummond ($9,300) – This is just another obvious one, but if I didn’t list him as a top play, I wouldn’t be doing this right. The Lakers are awful everywhere, but they’re especially bad against centers, and Drummond is one of the best in the league. Drum only managed 45 FPs against the Lakers earlier this season, and sadly he could do even better but 45 is still solid at his price.
Roy Hibbert ($4,700) – On the flip-side of the above mentioned game, Hibbert is set at a really good price and while he’s been pretty ‘blah’ this season, he did produce 25 FPs last time against Drummond. As mentioned throughout this piece, to fit in big names, you have to go cheaper elsewhere and Hibbert is a pretty good option without going full-on punt mode and he’s a lot less risky.
Cheap risk option: If Andrew Bogut sits again tonight with back spasms as I anticipate since the Warriors are playing a team like the Nets, Festus Ezeli ($4,300) instantly comes into play as he’ll start and play plenty of minutes to top this prices value fairly Ezeli (sorry, I had to). Festus put up 24.5 FPs in 27 minutes last night, and I’d expect similar tonight IF Bogut is for sure out.
Cash game rankings:
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 6 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.