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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: February 2, 2016

Tonight we’re looking at a nice five-game NBA DFS slate, and in this article I will be covering it from top to bottom to help provide you with the info needed to help you end the night in the green. First, we’ll look over the Vegas numbers for the five games, and briefly discuss which games we should be targeting heavier and which we should probably shy away from. Then, I will be pointing out a few of the top plays, as well as one or two cheap value options to consider at each position. Lastly, I will give my personal positional rankings that should help give you a sense of the best ways to construct your lineups tonight. I love nights that there are between four and six games, I definitely have won the most money with slates of this size. Now, let’s get to the grind.

Vegas lines and totals

Boston (-2.5) @ New York — 207
Miami (+5) @ Houston — 204
Toronto (-9.5) @ Phoenix — 200.5
Milwaukee (+7.5) @ Portland — 204.5
Minnesota (-4) @ LA Lakers — 202.5

Five games, all with projected totals above 200, that’s a nice sight. That said, it doesn’t help us narrow our DFS sights by fading a low scoring affair, so they’re all in play. The only game that I really have any hesitancy towards is the Raptors/Suns game, just because of how bad the Suns are, so it could potentially end in a blowout, but I really like players on both teams still, so I won’t be ignoring it. So, to sum it up, there’s no game that I’ll be heavily stacking, nor fading tonight. Let’s move on to the top plays and cheap value options for tonight.

POINT GUARD

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Kyle Lowry I told you I wouldn’t be totally fading this game tonight. Even as Lowry is struggling right now against the Nuggets as I write this after suggesting him Monday, I again love Kyle Lowry, and think he’s one of the top plays on the slate at any position. The Suns roll out the red carpet every day for opposing point guards, and make sure they have everything they need to secure a big fantasy night. Even if K-Low doesn’t bounce back from this rough start as I write this, I am not concerned and have Lowry projected at 44 fantasy points (FPs) tonight.

Zach LaVine I just sat here and debated LaVine or Marcus Smart for this spot for about 5 minutes, looking at every angle and statistic imaginable, all just to say that I slightly prefer LaVine. The oddest part is, both have faced their opponent tonight twice this season, and neither has done well, but everything tonight points to them having great nights. It also helps that while both have had struggles this season, they’re both on really good runs right now. I have Zach projected at 29 FPs, with definite upside against the weak Lakers.

Cheap risk option: Usually I have a few cheap PGs that I like, but tonight there’s currently just one, Cory Joseph. CoJo is going to get minutes regardless in this favorable matchup, and if the game starts to get ugly, which is very possible, he’d get even more. Look for him to net you just over 20 FPs on clearance.

SHOOTING GUARD

C.J. McCollum I like several guys in this just below James Harden tier of shooting guards. I’m especially liking the way things are set up for McCollum at home against Milwaukee who just played last night against the Kings. CJ has a lightning quick first step and drive to the lane, and he also has this stop-n-pop jumper that is just killer, he’s a legit baller that will grind his way to 35 FPs tonight.

Dwyane Wade The next second-tier SG that I like tonight is Dwyane Wade who has been carrying the Heat on his back of late, albeit still not enough to pull out many wins, but he keeps them in most games. 32, 46, 52.5, 49.5 and 38.5 FPs over the last five games, and he’s looked really healthy which is the key for him. Harden may be a chore for him on the defensive end, but on the offensive side, Harden is nothing more than a road cone for Wade to zoom by at will. He put up 39 FPs last time versus Houston,and I think he can push towards that kind of a score again tonight.

Cheap risk option: Another spot that I am not overly fond of the value options tonight, but Allen Crabbe is the one guy who I’d consider more than the others just because you know he’ll get around 25 minutes and have a pretty decent shot at 20 FPs.

SMALL FORWARD

Giannis Antetokounmpo I prefer the Greek Freak over Carmelo Anthony tonight, not because I think he’ll for sure out produce Melo, but because he saves you money and has a better chance at outproducing his salary than Melo who I think will at best, hit right at value (38 FPs would be the value line). I have Giannis at 34 FPs, which would be above value, and he always has upside to go off even more.

Trevor Ariza The man has been lighting up the box score recently, and I am going to be riding this hot streak in several lineups tonight, both cash games and GPPs. Ariza will be getting extra looks tonight with Harden having some struggles with defense by Wade, and we just have to hope that Trev still has the hot hand to knock down the treys. The Rockets could also rely on him to facilitate a little more than normal, try to get Harden off the ball looks. I feel Ariza at minimum gets us 28 FPs which is the value line anyways, but he managed 30 FPs against the Heat last time despite shooting just 3/13 from the field.

Cheap risk option: Once again not thrilled with the cheap options, and this is showing you why I am leaning more towards balanced lineups tonight instead of studs-n-duds. There’s just not enough value out there to make a lineup with multiple studs work. Mirza Teletovic is the guy I’d risk on if needed though at SF. The guy can for sure shoot the ball, but the biggest fear here is we have NO IDEA how the Suns rotation will look tonight with a brand new head coach.

POWER FORWARD

Julius Randle With Larry Nance already ruled out tonight, the path is cleared for Randle to have a big night against the Wolves. He should again play 30+ minutes and he’s averaging 34 FPs in 30 MPG over the last six games. Go ahead and pencil him in for another double-double and a 30 FP night.

Kristaps Porzingis The Latvian has been a big fan of playing against the Celtics in his young career, averaging 44 FPs in two matchups against them this season. He’ll also be at home in MSG where he averages four more fantasy points per game (FPPG) than the road. While Randle may be a tad safer, Zinger absolutely has the highest upside of this PF bunch.

Markieff Morris As I said a bit ago, we have no clue how Earl Watson will run the Suns’ rotation tonight, but I would say that between the fact that Kieff gives the Suns a better shot at winning and management probably wants to showcase him for the Raptors who could use an upgraded PF before the trade deadline. There’s risk here, but at his price, I’ll definitely have some shares.

Cheap risk option: There’s a few okay options here, but none anywhere close to safe. Brandon Bass will play about 20 minutes with an upside of 20, but more realistic would be 15 FPs. Also, Noah Vonleh will play 15-20 minutes and tends to get 14+ FPs, averaging 19 FPs over the last four games. Blazers may need his size a bit more tonight against the lengthy Bucks players.

CENTER

Karl-Anthony Towns As seen in the cover photo, the 2015 number one overall pick is my guy tonight, and that won’t be a rare feeling tonight. The kid has put up 49+ FPs in four straight games and faces the Lakers tonight who are awful at stopping opposing big men, especially with the skills like KAT has. I have Towns projected at a moderate 45 FPs, but he could definitely surpass that if he remains sizzling in all facets as he has lately.

Gorgui DiengDouble T-Wolves? Yup! This comes with a slight asterisk though, this is all based on if Dieng remains in the starting lineup. If they (stupidly) take him out of the starting five after his nice last few games in the role, I will probably steer clear because their bench rotation hasn’t been kind to Gorgui this season more often than not. Over the last four games Dieng has put up 26, 47, 37 and 31.5 FPs, and facing the Lakers leaves him with great opportunity to go 30+ again.

Cheap risk option: I probably wouldn’t punt at center tonight, there’s better options, even in the lower-mid-tier price range that have higher upsides, but Meyers Leonard isn’t a bad option if you choose to do so. Meyers has been hot or cold lately, but I think he’ll at least get you 17-20 FPs tonight for cheap if needed.

Cash game rankings:

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Kyle Lowry
2) Isaiah Thomas
3) Zach LaVine
4) Marcus Smart
5) Damian Lillard
6) Ricky Rubio
7) Cory Joseph

SG
1) C.J. McCollum
2) Dwyane Wade
3) DeMar DeRozan
4) Khris Middleton
5) Devin Booker
6) Andrew Wiggins

SF
1) Giannis Antetokounmpo
2) Trevor Ariza
3) Carmelo Anthony
4) Jae Crowder (questionable)
5) P.J. Tucker
6) Al-Farouq Aminu

PF
1) Julius Randle
2) Kristaps Porzingis
3) Amare Stoudemire (only if H. Whiteside is out)
4) Chris Bosh
5) Markieff Morris
6) Clint Capela
7) Josh Smith

C
1) Karl-Anthony Towns
2) Gorgui Dieng (if starting)
4) Mason Plumlee
5) Greg Monroe
6) Alex Len

As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7:30 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.

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