Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: February 20, 2016
Still trying to recover from what was an insanely large slate last night, but the league decided to spare us a bit tonight with just a four-game DFS slate. Today I will be breaking down the top plays and values at each position, as well as my positional rankings for FantasyDraft.com. If you don’t already play DFS at FantasyDraft, you’re missing out on a really solid site. It has basically the same scoring as DraftKings, but it allows so much more positional flexibility. If you sign up through our referal link, you will receive 1-month our Front Office DFS content for free. If you already have a subscription to Front Office, let us know and maybe we can hook you up with a different sign up reward. Now, let’s get right to the slate analysis.
As for positions on FantasyDraft, there’s eight roster spots: Guard x3, F/C x3 and Util x2 and you have a $100,000 salary cap.
All prices shown are for FantasyDraft, but if you play on DraftKings or FanDuel, these are still the players that I will be using on those sites as well.
Vegas lines and totals
Milwaukee (+9) @ Atlanta — Vegas projected game total of 205
New York (+2) @ Minnesota — 204
Washington (?) @ Miami — ???
Golden State (-5) @ LA Clippers — 221.5
Just four games, but all will have solid game totals, with the Warriors/Clippers game obviously standing above the pack. If I was a sports betting man, I would be ALL OVER Warriors -5, even more so after they got embarrassed last night in Portland. We won’t see numbers for the Wizards/Heat game until we know if Dwyane Wade will be active or not, but I’d expect that line to sit around the 198-200 range. OK, let’s get to the top plays and values of the slate.
Chris Paul ($16,700) – My top play of the night at any position on any site is Chris Paul. CP3 faces the Warriors tonight and he continues to just be killing it nightly with Blake Griffin out. Paul has a usage rate of 28% over the past six games and he’s averaged 53 fantasy points (FPs) in two games against the Warriors already this season. Damian Lillard scored 51 points against the Dubs last night, so they’re on the back end of a back-to-back and showed their vulnerability to elite point guards. For $2.5K less than Stephen Curry, I’m loving CP3 (that doesn’t mean that I won’t have some lineups with Curry in them).
Dwyane Wade ($12,700) – I’m skeptical if he’ll play or not after missing last night’s game and knowing that he’s scheduled for an MRI Saturday morning. Hopefully the MRI is clean and they let him play, because with Chris Bosh out, Wade is almost a must-play with his hight usage rate and matchup against the Wizards who give up big time DFS scoring to opposing shooting guards.
Stephen Curry ($19,200) – No breakdown really needed here. If you go with a studs-n-duds lineup tonight or a 1 stud and rest balanced, Curry is a top candidate as always. 58 FPPG in two matchups against CP3 and the Clippers this season, and looking to bounce back after getting blown out of the gym by Lillard and crew. I have Paul ahead of him due to upside v price, but I’d never say someone was wrong to have Curry as their top option.
Goran Dragic ($10,400) – If Wade does miss the game, Dragic will once again be ready to step his game up, tough matchup or not. Dragic lit up the box score last night against Atlanta with Wade out to the sum of 17 points, 10 assists, five boards, four steals and three treys for 45 FPs. If Wade does play, I won’t be on Dragic tonight.
Khris Middleton ($12,900) At a similar price tag, I lean to Wade over Middleton if Wade plays, but if Wade sits, Middleton is my guy here. Khris is super solid for cash-games and has a fine matchup to do what he does and land in the mid-30 FP range or better tonight.
Cheap risk option: Gerald Green ($7,400) is a nice value punt play at guard if Wade is out. Green put up 29 FPs last night in 37 minutes, so if nothing else you have a really cheap play who will play big minutes if Dwyane sits again, love that opportunity. Typically not a guy I like to use or recommend this season, Kyle Korver ($7,900) will try to keep improving on what’s been a let down of a season thus far. Korver sees a favorable matchup for his long-range skill set, and he only needs 21 FPs to hit value at this price level.
Carmelo Anthony ($15,400) – I am a big fan of Melo tonight, especially in GPPs (bigger tournaments). He’s really been doing it all of late from scoring, to grabbing boards, to dishing out assists, and in a matchup against the T’Wolves, he should be able to put up another 45+ FP night at his 30% usage rate over the past six games.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,500) – The Greek Freak is on a roll right now, and is probably the better/safer cash-game play over Melo tonight. Giannis will always get you defensive points, and he’s put up back-to-back double-doubles, tonight should make three in a row. Look for Antetokounmpo to go for 35+ FPs tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($15,100) – Ten straight games with double-digit rebounds and 14 straight that he’s recorded at least one block. This rookie is just an all out stud, the upside here long-term in incredibly high. Towns needs just 34 FPs to hit value tonight which he’s beat in nine straight games. Tonight he takes on the Knicks who are middle of the pack against centers, but KAT’s ability to play inside or out and rebound and block like true studs regardless of matchup.
Gorgui Dieng ($12,400) – Still under-priced, Dieng has really been owning it in the starting PF role for the Wolvesm yet his salary still hasn’t hit high enough to scare us off of him. With this good matchup I expect him to be pretty highly owned on this small slate, but I will be going with him in several lineups regardless.
Luol Deng ($9,300) – Had a big time line last night with Wade out, playing 38 minutes and putting up a line of 30 points, 11 boards, four steals and one 3-pointer. Doubtful that he’d go this big again tonight even if Wade is out, but at his price, he’d be a great play if Wade does sit.
Cheap risk option: Look who got big minutes for what seems like the first time in his mostly injured tenure on the Heat, none other than Josh McRoberts ($6,000) With Chris Bosh out, the Heat need someone to step up, and while Amare hasn’t been terrible, McBob has a chance to be more effective if he keeps getting over 20 minutes. He likely only saw 30 minutes of court time tonight due to Whiteside missing the game, but he’ll return tonight so don’t expect McRoberts to put up 40 FPs again, but on a small slate he’s a fairly decent punt play. Lastly, Mike Scott has been playing over 20 minutes for the Hawks and has put up over 20 FPs the past two games, at minimum price he’s a very viable punt option to fit in bigger salaries elsewhere.
Cash game rankings:
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7:30 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.