Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: March 28, 2016
We have a big, ugly 10-game NBA slate on our hands tonight, and I’ll be breaking it down from top to bottom to help you formulate your DFS lineups, and lead you towards ending the night in the green. I’ll review and analyze the top plays of the night, point out the best cheap values on the slate, and then finish with positional rankings. Let’s get right to the daily grind!
SO that you are aware in advance, as you probably read last week, due to DFS being banned from New York, I have been left without a DFS writing partner. So, it’s me seven days a week the rest of the way, and due to that damn thing they call “life,” I can’t write for a couple hours every single night, so some days like today, I will be typing up much less analysis or reasoning, but I am doing just as much research as always.
Damian Lillard – He’s Damian Lillard, he’s going up against the team that allows the second most fantasy points (FPs) to opposing point guards, and he’s almost a grand cheaper than Westbrook. I have him projected at 49 FPs.
Ricky Rubio – One team gives up more FPs per game to PGs than the Kings, and that’s the Suns, which Rubio plays tonight. Rubes put up 50 FPs against Phoenix earlier this month. Projections on Rubio tonight are 40 FPs.
Shelvin Mack – He’s been ‘meh’ the last three games, but there’s not many better slump busters out there than the Lakers. Another plus is his non-stellar play dropped his price a few hundred bucks. I have Mack bouncing back for 34 FPs tonight.
Cheap risk option: Jose Calderon has hit well over value in three straight and plays the bad Pelicans defense, Tim Frazier remains a solid play if Norris Cole is out again, and Shane Larkin doesn’t have a great matchup, but plays where he went to college (Miami) and has been hitting value consistently the last few games. Now repeat after me: I will not roster Patty Mills even though he’s starting. I will NOT roster Patty Mills even though he’s starting. I will not… well, you get it. I always fall for it, but Patty has hit value ZERO times when Parker has been out this season.
Dwyane Wade – He’s gotten to play a few less minutes the last two games, and now at home against the defensively lacking Nets who he has averaged 43 FPs against this season in three matchups. I have him at 39 FPs.
Zach LaVine – Love the Wolves’ guard stack against the Suns just as I did the last time these teams faced off. It worked last time (Rubio had 50 FP, LaVine 35) and there’s no reason to think it won’t be great again this time around.
Raymond Felton – Another good spot to use the cheaply priced, Felton. Deron is out as mentioned earlier, and Felton will see another uptick in usage and try to put up his third straight game of 30+ FPs.
Cheap risk option: Don’t love any of the current values at SG, but if I were to go with one it’d be Arron Afflalo against the Pelicans. My projections sheet puts him at 22 FPs which is just a tad over his value line.
Kevin Durant – This is a great spot for KD, as if there’s a bad spot. Toronto has nobody to matchup with what Durant can do inside-out, and much how he did the lone time they played the Raps this season (53 FPs), we should see much of the same. I have him at 50 FPs.
Gordon Hayward – Have to love his price today against such a bad defense in the Lakers. He’s been a little inconsistent lately, but this should be a pretty safe spot for him to at least hit at his value line of 30 FPs, but I have him at 36 FPs.
Cheap risk option: It’s Maurice Harkless and there’s zero hesitation saying that. He’s been starting and played 25, 31 and 30 minutes the last three games, amassing 31, 23 and 26 FPs in those games respectively. With no Cousins for Sacramento, Hark should hit 20+ again.
LaMarcus Aldridge – Plain and simply, if Kawhi Leonard is out again, LMA is almost a must-use. I like LMA regardless, especially in cash-games, but he’s just been amazing any time Leonard has missed. I have him at 36 FPs if Kawhi is in, 43 if he’s out.
Kristaps Porzingis – He’s finally seen the minutes bump we were hoping for and it’s put him on a hot streak — shocking how good players produce when given minutes. 32, 39, 44, 28 and 36 FPs over the last five games and now faces a team without their star defensive paint dweller. Oh dear. I have Zinger at 34 FPs tonight.
Cheap risk option: Ed Davis has been great the last few games since Meyers Leonard has been out and Noah Vonleh was removed from the starting lineup. Look for Ed to hit above his 21 FP value line tonight against a Boogie-less Kings team. Also, with Tim Duncan out again, David West should play around 25 minutes and have a real good shot at breaking 20+ FPs for the Spurs.
Karl-Anthony Towns – So many good center options tonight at the top that it’s tough to choose, but give me the rookie against the Suns. My spreadsheet loves him as well and put him at 21 points, 13 rebounds and 2+ blocks, totaling 48 FPs in the end.
DeAndre Jordan – Another game set up for Dre to go the hell off. Boston has nobody to stop him from getting all the boards and blocks that he feels like accumulating. Projection: Pain.
Robin Lopez – Love the value and upside you get with RoLo tonight against the Pelicans. I’ll have plenty of shares of him in my lineups that I spend up elsewhere than center, if I don’t go to the value guys mentioned below. Projections on RoLo at 33 FPs.
Cheap risk option: Lots of value here tonight. Willie Cauley-Stein coming off two really big games, and tonight he plays without Cousins taking away. WCS put up 21 points and 7 boards last night, and the projection on him tonight sits at 27 FPs, and there’s upside there, no question. Kostas Koufos put up 38 FPs last time DMC was out, but don’t go expecting that tonight, I instead have him projected at 23 FPs.
Cash game rankings:
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.