Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: November 12, 2015
It may be just a 3-game NBA slate tonight, but that doesn’t mean the DFS action stops. We’re here to help you cash in even on the smallest of slates, and who are we kidding, after the monster slate last night, we need a calm night. Let’s get right to the breakdown.
Vegas lines and totals
Utah (+5) @ Miami — 182
Golden State (-8) @ Minnesota — 210
LA Clippers (-2.5) @ Phoenix — 209
One game reeks of slow pace, and the 182 total agrees. On a night this slim, you can’t totally fade a game, but you definitely lean heavier on the others. With a small slate, a most will share common players, it’s the smaller pieces you use that will make or break you tonight.
RICKY RUBIO IS A GAME-TIME DECISION!
Stephen Curry ($10,600) – The reigning league MVP will be highly owned tonight, and that’s never fun, but you really can’t fade him due to his ridiculous game and a plus matchup. 40 DK points is his floor and his ceiling is basically limitless.
Brandon Knight ($7,000) – This game is sure to be a high scoring affair, and in games like this the Suns really rely on the studly guard duo to run the show. A little over a week ago when these teams squared off, Knight had a poor shooting night (4/20) yet still put up 36 DK points. We’ll be hoping he hits more of those shots tonight to combine with the rest of his loaded stat sheet.
Cheap risk option: Zach LaVine ($3,500) is really the chalk value play here tonight whether Rubio plays or not. If Rubio is out, LaVine is a must-play in all lineups, but if Rubio plays Zach should still see a fair share of minutes and net you around 20 DK points. UPDATE: With Dwyane Wade sitting out tonight, I like Beno Udrih ($3,000) as a decent punt option for minimum price. This is his first game with Miami, so he’s not a safe bet, but I am optimistic that he’ll see around 20 minutes.
DWAYNE WADE AND J.J. REDICK ARE OUT TONIGHT!
Eric Bledsoe ($8,000) – As I mentioned above, the Suns guard duo will be the Suns only hope of competing in this game, so their usage should be really high for this one. 35+ DK points in five straight games for Bledsoe and with the Suns coming off three nights off while the Clippers are on the second half of a road back-to-back. Yeah, the Suns fresh legs should be zooming to the ball tonight.
Alec Burks ($5,000) – If I don’t go with Bledsoe at SG, I might just semi-punt the position and run with the good scoring Burks. 29+ DK points in three of the last four games and the Jazz will need his scoring off the bench tonight. I like the value route here on this small slate.
Cheap risk option: If you have to fully punt the position, there’s really no ideal options at all, but if I had to use one I’d roll with Jamal Crawford ($3,500) and just pray he’s on tonight. Jamal typically only plays right about 20 minutes this season, but he can light it up time-to-time, so he’s the GPP punt target here. Really though, you’re hoping he lands above 15 DK points. UPDATE: With J.J. Redick ruled out tonight, Crawford will be starting for the Clips and see a boost in minutes. I now love him basically as a must play.
Gordon Hayward ($6,300) – There’s really only one star at SF tonight and it’s hands down Gordon Hayward. He started the season really slowly, but he’s started to heat up his past few games going for 31 – 33 – 29 DK points in those games. Most will go cheaper here tonight so that they can afford more expensive PG, PF and C, but maybe you gain points on your competitors here if you can work Hayward in.
Luol Deng ($4,300) – You could always just play along and save $2K by dropping down to Deng, but you are taking on a lot of uncertainty if you do. Deng has only hit value once in his last five games, but the game he hit was the most recent. He will see 30 minutes of PT and really you’re just hoping Deng can manage 25 fantasy points. Not a lot of upside here.
Cheap risk option: Justise Winslow ($4,000) has played 30+ minutes in four straight Heat games, and while he’s not getting a lot of DK points to make you feel he’s a good bet, it’s a 3-game slate and pickings are slim. I’ll have some Winslow mixed in tonight expecting 17 but low-key hoping for 25 fantasy points.
Draymond Green ($6,900) – Draymond has been pretty consistently reliable this season and should have his way with either Kevin Garnett or any other PF the Wolves try to put on him. Dray will fill the stat sheet up for you tonight, so look for around 40 DK points.
Blake Griffin ($9,400) – Blake scored less than 40 fantasy points for the first time this season, last night. Taking it to Markieff Morris tonight should be just the recipe to return him to the high scoring, highlight reel society.
Cheap risk option: I wouldn’t go any cheaper than Nemanja Bjelica ($4,700) tonight at power forward. Bjelica has had a couple of really good games in a row, and has been earning more significant playing time by the game with the Wolves. Tonight he should see around 30 minutes and plenty of opportunity to beat his prices value. He’ll be in a good bit of my (and everyone elses) lineups. UPDATE: Trevor Booker ($3,000) should see a nice boost in PT with Gobert out and is yet another good minimum priced option.
RUDY GOBERT IS OUT TONIGHT!
Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,500) – This is not your average rookie. Towns is a beast and despite not having the greatest of matchups, he should get a good amount of boards and scoring opportunities in this one. Watch for the Wolves to go to their big man early and often and he’ll reward your fantasy lineup with a solid score.
Tyson Chandler ($5,400) – Chandler has had a couple of down games lately, so with big names available, he will be under-owned tonight. The Suns will depend on him to slow down DeAndre like he did a couple of weeks ago. He doesn’t have a super high ceiling, but a low end double-double should hit him right around the low 30s.
Cheap risk option: If I am going cheap here tonight, I’m going to go for Alex Len ($3,000) at the minimum price. Len’s minutes have been all over the place game-to-game, so this isn’t a safe play at all, but I’m guessing the Suns will get him out there for at least 15 minutes where he can rack up some boards and blocks to get around 17 fantasy points. The floor here is rock bottom though, so know the risk.
Cash game rankings
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
As always, stay locked to Twitter and RotoWorld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.