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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: November 22, 2015

Just like last week, I am going to focus on the evening slate and not including the day game between the Raptors and Clippers. The reason for this is that the big DraftKings tournaments and such are set for the evening slate and not the all-day. A lot of the top fantasy heavy hitters are going to be active tonight, so you’re likely going to want to have a few varying lineups just to have a share of all of them. Keep an eye out for Kevin Durant‘s status as the day goes on, because if he is active there’s no way you’re paying $12K+ for Russell Westbrook when guys like Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard and Brandon Knight are also active for much cheaper. Now, let’s get right to this enticing five-game slate.

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Vegas lines and totals

Phoenix (+1) @ New Orleans — 211
Boston (-5) @ Brooklyn — 204.5
Dallas (?) @ Oklahoma City — N/A (Will be added when posted by Vegas)
Golden State (-11) @ Denver — 213.5
Portland (-3) @ LA Lakers — 203

Well, there may only be a handful of games for this slate, but it makes up for that with what look to be high scoring games. Each game is projected over 200, two of which over 210. This leaves no game off the table, unless you’re concerned Golden State may put Denver away too early to spend up for a guy like Steph, but I wouldn’t be too worried on that.

Let’s get to my top plays and values at each position:

POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook ($12,300) – If Durant is out, you have to think highly on using Westbrook simply because he is doing it all for OKC right now. His usage rate over the last five games is an absolutely ridiculous 39.4% according to Statmuse. I know it will be tough to spend an extra $1,400 when Steph is available, but for cash games, there’s nobody safer to have a huge night.

Stephen Curry ($10,900) – He’s the absolute no-brainer top play if Kevin Durant is active tonight, but I still prefer to pay up for Russ if KD sits. Curry should put up upwards of 50 DK points against a poor PG defending team like Denver, but he may have to hit that number in just three quarters — very possible.

Isaiah Thomas ($7,400) – I love all of the top-5 point guards for tonight’s slate, but for cash games of the second tier (non-Russ/Steph) PGs, I tend to look at Isaiah simply because he’s cheaper. All of them have plus matchups, but with Marcus Smart already ruled out, Isaiah’s usage rate should be even higher than normal and he should be a really solid cash-play. I’ll have exposure to the whole group though honestly.

Cheap risk option: Shane Larkin ($3,100) is one of the punt options I lean towards on nights like this where I really want as many top player in my lineups as possible. Larkin is getting over 20 minutes per game recently and over his last three has put up 23, 19 and 26 DK points.

SHOOTING GUARD

Avery Bradley ($5,000) – I’m likely going to live or die by this guy tonight, because I simply love the price and with Smart out, I assume Bradley will start and have another nice game. He’s averaging 30 DK points over the last four games and joining the starting lineup (more minutes) plus this good matchup basically demands you to use him at this price.

Kobe Bryant ($5,900) – Yeah, I’m going the cheaper route at SG tonight, and Bradley and Kobe are two of my top targets. I don’t love that Kobe will likely be guarded by Al-Farouq Aminu, but you know he’s going to play big minutes, take a lot of shots and fill the stat sheet up even if it’s inefficiently.

Cheap risk option: I doubt I’ll go below the above guys at this spot tonight, but if I had to choose a total punt play it’d be Andre Roberson ($3,000). He doesn’t get many shots even with KD out, but he plays a lot of minutes and should be able to secure you at least 13 DK points if Durant is out as I expect.

SMALL FORWARD

Al-Farouq Aminu ($6,200) – You know this is my guy. He scores it, rebounds well, hits treys and tends to get steals and blocks nightly as well. While he’ll be chasing around 37-year-old Kobe on one end, he’ll also have the advantage of that matchup on the offensive side of the ball. Despite shooting 31% from the field the last two games, AFA has still managed 39 and 37 DK points in those games. He’s a great value tonight.

Harrison Barnes ($5,300) – I don’t totally love any other small forwards tonight, but I don’t mind riding the hot hand of Harrison Barnes. The Warriors should score a ton tonight and Barnes is playing over 30 minutes a night, and he’s shot 7/13 from behind the arc the past two games. While he may or may not get his third straight 30+ DK point night, I think he’s a decently safe bet to end up in the mid-20s.

Cheap risk option: Mirza Teletovic ($3,000) has went for 27, 23, 12 and 28 DK point the last 4 games for the Suns, and while he’s nowhere near safe, he does seem to put in work with the minutes he’s given. If he can net 20 minutes again tonight, he should at least hit a little above value at the minimum price. P.J. Tucker ($3,700) is probably a safer bet if you can afford the nudge up in price.

POWER FORWARD

Serge Ibaka ($6,700) – Most won’t be on Ibaka tonight after he’s had back-to-back absolute dud games shooting a combined 6/24 from the field, just eight rebounds and one blocked shot. That all said, Ibaka is usually pretty solid, so a bounce back game against Dirk and the Mavs seems like it has slump-buster written all over it. Look for Serge to deliver around 35 DK points tonight.

Julius Randle ($5,800) – I like the rookie tonight in a game against the Blazers who have not been good at slowing down opposing power forwards. Randle will be looking to dribble drive his way to the hoop tonight, and with just guys like Mason Plumlee and Noah Vonleh patrolling the paint, he should get a lot of finishes and boards. Randle should be primed for his fourth career double-double.

Cheap risk option: Ed Davis ($4,000) is coming off of a huge 17 points, 15 rebounds night, but there’s no way to be sure he’ll play that much or be near that efficient again. With a lack of other cheap options though, Davis makes a decent semi-punt target, especially in GPPs. He could view this as a somewhat revenge game against the team he played for last season, too.

CENTER

Mason Plumlee ($5,500) – There are no big money centers going tonight, so this is a spot that you’ll be taking a bit of a relief in the salary department. The Lakers have been getting destroyed by opposing centers and Plumlee has been pretty consistent for the most part this season. Plums should get you around 30 DK points tonight, which is a nice score at a value tonight.

Roy Hibbert ($4,800) – The guy on the other side of the above mentioned matchup is also a nice target tonight. Plumlee and Hibbert are going to do your fantasy team favors tonight by allowing each other to put up nice fantasy numbers. Hibbs has put up 25+ DK points in five straight games and this will make six.

Cheap risk option: I don’t see myself going any lower tonight that Hibbert, but if I did it would be for Festus Ezeli ($4,400) who is getting minutes in the low-20s with Bogut back, but he’s still managed 27, 17 and 24 DK points over the last three games. Nikola Jokic ($3,600) is another cheap guy to glance at, but even if he starts, he faces a really tough game in Golden State.

Cash game rankings:

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Russell Westbrook (if KD sits)
2) Stephen Curry
3) Isaiah Thomas
4) Damian Lillard
5) Brandon Knight
6) D’Angelo Russell
7) Shane Larkin

SG
1) Avery Bradley
2) Kobe Bryant
3) Will Barton
4) Eric Bledsoe
5) Wesley Matthews
6) Jordan Clarkson

SF
1) Al-Farouq Aminu
2) Harrison Barnes
3) Joe Johnson
4) P.J. Tucker
5) Andre Iguodala
6) Mirza Teletovic

PF
1) Serge Ibaka
2) Julius Randle
3) Anthony Davis
4) Thaddeus Young
5) Ed Davis
6) Draymond Green

C
1) Mason Plumlee
2) Roy Hibbert
3) Brook Lopez
4) Zaza Pachulia
5) Festus Ezeli
6) Jared Sullinger
7) Nikola Jokic (if he starts)

As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 6 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.

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