Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: November 3, 2015
It’s just week two and already the new scheduling has me thrown off. Either Monday or Tuesday of any given week was a day with four or less games, but after seven games last night, we have seven again today. I’ll be breaking down that 7-game NBA DFS DraftKings slate here, giving you the top plays and values at each position to help you win cash tonight. Most of this content is geared towards cash games, but there will be points where I mention nice GPP plays also. So let’s get to it.
Vegas lines and totals
Chicago (-3.5) @ Charlotte – 193
Indiana (+5) @ Detroit – 201
Atlanta (+4) @ Miami – 196
Orlando (+3) @ New Orleans – 205
Toronto (-1.5) @ Dallas – 204.5
Memphis (-5) @ Sacramento – 197.5
Denver (-1) @ LA Lakers – 208
Only one of the 14 teams playing tonight was active last night and that’s the Memphis Grizzlies, who played at Golden State and take on the Kings tonight.I won’t be messing with the Grizzlies/Kings game much aside from maybe some cheap plays. Cousins didn’t hit near value either game against them last year and the Memphis D is still tough to beat. There’s no huge totals nor lines that hint at a blowout, but the Nuggets/Lakers game really sticks out to me as the one with the highest fantasy upside. They both are running uptempo offenses and are generous on the defensive end, I smell an over. The best part to watch in this game will be fellow rookie class PG, D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay going head-to-head for the first time.
Here’s a quick reminder of the scoring on DraftKings:
Point = +1 PT
Made 3pt. shot = +0.5 PTs
Rebound = +1.25 PTs
Assist = +1.5 PTs
Steal = +2 PTs
Block = +2 PTs
Turnover = -0.5 PTs
Double-Double = +1.5PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
Triple-Double = +3PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
Now, for the top options and values at each position:
Mike Conley ($6,800) – Conley is a guy that I always like to look at in cash games as a true smooth criminal. He rarely has a total dud and his price is always beneficial to your cash lineups because he equally as rarely has a monster game. Most people hate “safe” plays, but in cash games, give me a high floor, solid ceiling guy like this in a good matchup any day. Conley should hit 30+ DK points with a reasonable shot at 40 as long as the Kings don’t have one of their cruddy nights.
Elfrid Payton ($6,200) – I would have been jumping and screaming to use Elfrid in this matchup from the rooftops before Sunday night, but Sunday Elf was oddly only given 22 minutes of playing time. I’m assuming that was just a night of semi-rest for Elfrid because there is no other explanation for it, so I am going to roll him out there as normal tonight in a great matchup against the Pelicans. His price and matchup opportunity just flash value, and I have him projected at 34 DK points tonight in 34 minutes of play.
Cheap risk option: Jameer Nelson ($3,700) is a guy I’ll be targeting for my G slot a lot tonight, because the Lakers allow ALL THE POINTS to opposing PGs and Jameer has gotten at least 25 minutes in each of the Nuggets three games this season. In those three games Nelson has went for DK scores of 22 – 13 (1/10 FG) – 27 and he should surpass value again tonight.
Dwyane Wade ($7,000) – Yep, I’m going to keep riding the Wade express until he falls off the tracks, because he’s sporting a sexy 33% usage rate, scoring in bunches (20+ in all three games) and just looking fresh out there. Enjoy his 32+ DK point night with upside at a fair price until the price goes up or he slows down.
Evan Fournier ($4,300) – I’ll admit it, I’m not loving Jimmy Butler‘s value at his price, don’t get excited for DeMar DeRozan against even a not 100% Wesley Matthews, so if I don’t go with Wade, I’m going super cheap at SG tonight. Top lower priced option is Evan Fournier, who is playing a ton of unexpected minutes for the Magic and has taken 36 shots in the past two games. There’s always concern of a guy whose fantasy value relies so heavily on his scoring, but at this price, I’m good with that gamble.
Cheap risk option: Will Barton ($4,000) and Marco Belinelli ($3,800) are the two guys under $4K that I am looking at as well at this spot tonight. Both similar to Fournier — although not as many minutes — are getting their shots and rely on their shots falling for fantasy production, but I like the punt route enough to take shots on these types tonight.
Nicolas Batum ($6,800) – I know you’re all wondering why I am going the value route everywhere thus far, but the big money is coming, just be patient and take notes on these not so expensive options are mentioned. I feel like Batum should draw more Tony Snell and DOug McDermott than Jimmy Butler, as I think Jimmy will defend Kemba a good bit especially while Lin is also in the game. Batum should see plenty of shots and the way he can fill the stat sheet, I think he has a very healthy floor and pretty fair upside at his mid-level price tag.
DeMarre Carroll ($5,700) – Carroll has surprised me the way he’s played to start the season and I was always a big fan of him as a roto player in season long leagues when he was a Hawk. I just didn’t think he was the best fit in Toronto from a fantasy perspective, but he’s been really solid. Look for that solidness to continue with Carroll guarding a still rusty Chandler Parsons.
Cheap risk option: This is a cop out, but I just can’t advise anyone to use a player priced under $4K at SF today. Omri Casspi would be the closest but an upside of 18 at $3.9K isn’t wise to shoot for. The cheapest targets I would look at would be Tony Allen ($4,200) and Aaron Gordon ($4,300), both will see minutes in the low-20s and depend quite a bit on their defensive skills, which is never an issue. I lean to Gordon for more upside and because the Magic are really going to need him to help out on Anthony Davis tonight, so he could see more minutes than usual.
Anthony Davis ($10,500) – I don’t care how high the price is, I will have Anthony Davis in every single one of my cash and tournament lineups tonight and you should, too. When I went and saw the Pelicans play the Magic last month in a preseason game, I tweeted out “Anthony Davis will score 50+ points a few times this season and one of those times will be when he faces Orlando.” because he absolutely did as he pleased that night. He’s going to have his first monstrous game of the season tonight, don’t miss out on it.
Nikola Mirotic ($6,700) – 30+ DK points, money in the bank on this one. Without Michael Kidd-Gilchrist around, the Hornets don’t have any big men that are capable of guarding the multiple dimensions of Miro. The only downfall with Mirotic is that his upside is capped by only playing just under 30 minutes, but he’s still a really good option at this price.
Cheap risk option: Dwight Powell ($3,400) has been amazing on a fantasy point per minute basis, and until he stops or his price jumps to over $4K, it’s hard to not auto-place him in your lineups. 20.5 – 18.5 – 24.5 in three games and only the last of those did he play more than 20 minutes. Luis Scola ($3,500) is another guy who is cheap, producing well for price point and helps you bulk up your lineup elsewhere.
Andre Drummond ($8,200) – Absolutely beasting to start the season is Drummond and he has another really good matchup tonight at Indy. Much like Davis, not sure I’ll be able to keep him out of my lineups tonight, but there’s so many good options at center tonight that I will have the urge to hedge a bit. Can’t see Ian Mahinmi and rookie Myles Turner stopping Drum from another 20-20 night.
Nikola Vucevic ($7,700) – This is still a lenient price on Vucci Mane after 42 and 46 fantasy point efforts, and now playing his best matchup of the season. Vucevic was also very impressive against the Pels in the preseason game I attended, and on most nights he’d be an insta-start but as mentioned above, there’s a lot of options here tonight and you can only get two in your lineups.
Cheap risk option: Boogie Cousins is OUT so these were easy. This is the last chance you’ll be able to use Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,000) at such a cheap price, because one he has his third straight nice game, he’ll likely jump close to $1K. The matchup isn’t great, but it’s better than it was a couple nights back against DeAndre Jordan, and Willie Trill still managed 26 fantasy points. Also, Kosta Koufos ($3,700) is the other beneficiary of Cousins missing the game, he’s scored 24+ DK points in two of three games this season and Cousins was ACTIVE for those, so he has a nice shot to crush value tonight as well. I may go loco for one GPP and use both… Good luck choosing what centers to use tonight.
CASH GAME RANKS
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first games tip at 7:00pm EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44.