Fantasy Basketball

2013 Fantasy Basketball: Targeting the Mini Lebrons

nicolas.batum
Photo Credit: Who’s The Bet ?

Let’s face it.  If you don’t have the first or second pick in your fantasy basketball draft this year, then you aren’t getting Lebron James or Kevin Durant.  And although that may be a bummer, you can still find plenty of value in Mini Lebron types throughout the draft.  What is a Mini Lebron you ask?  Well, to explain it properly, let’s first look at James’s 9-category line last season:

PPG

RPG

APG

3PG

SPG

BPG

TO/PG

FG%

FT%

26.8

8.0

7.3

1.4

1.7

.9

3.0

.565

.753

 

Just to make it clear, Durant had a similarly dominating season, but we can partially thank Goran Dragic for the title of this article.  James contributes across the board.  The only average stat-line he puts up is free throw percentage and that’s nitpicking.  Now that we explained what James is so awesome at doing, we can now define Mini Lebron.

1.       1.  Mini Lebron

A player who contributes quality numbers for all eight fantasy basketball (standard) categories (but not quite like Lebron James).

2.      2.  Mini Lebron

According to Goran Dragic, “Eric Bledsoe”.

For the sake of the piece, let’s go with the first one.  The goal here is to find the guys who can achieve this kind of success.  We will first look at last year’s numbers, and then select some other possible breakout players who can give us across the board results.  

In order to make this process manageable, I am going to use my own judgment, but I will lay down some general ground rules (that won’t be strictly followed).  I will try to avoid first round picks according to Yahoo! ADP.  All players selected must have come close to averaging (in 2012) 14ppg a game with at least four assists and rebounds per game, as well as make at least one three per game.  Since blocks are hard to come by, we are going to have to be a little more forgiving with that category, but we are looking for players who at least help contribute in both steals and blocks.  Now that we have the criteria settled, let’s find ourselves some Mini Lebrons.

Note: If you don’t see players like Dwayne Wade on this list, it is because they lack three pointers made.  They do not qualify for this list, but I do suggest you keep them in mind.  In saying that, I do emphasize the three-ball in fantasy basketball.  If you do not shoot the three, then you better be extremely beneficial in some of the more difficult categories (i.e. blocks).  According to Yahoo ADP, Nicolas Batum and Wade have almost identical draft averages (.1 difference), but I would draft Batum every time because he makes threes (among other reasons).

 

PLAYER

Y! ADP

PPG

RPG

APG

3PG

SPG

BPG

TO/PG

FG%

FT%

Paul George

9.7

17.4

7.6

4.1

2.2

1.8

0.6

2.9

0.419

0.807

Nicolas Batum

21.1

14.3

5.6

4.9

2.3

1.2

1.1

2.6

0.423

0.848

Kobe Bryant

30.9

27.3

5.6

6

1.7

1.4

0.3

3.7

0.463

0.839

Josh Smith

39

17.5

8.4

4.2

0.8

1.2

1.8

3

0.465

0.517

Monta Ellis

41.6

19.2

3.9

6

1.1

2.1

0.4

3.1

0.416

0.773

Kemba Walker

43.2

17.7

3.5

5.7

1.3

2

0.4

2.4

0.423

0.798

Jrue Holiday

58.4

17.7

4.2

8

1.2

1.6

0.4

3.7

0.431

0.752

Chandler Parsons

59.1

15.5

5.3

3.5

2

1

0.4

1.9

0.486

0.729

George Hill

62.3

14.2

3.7

4.7

1.7

1.1

0.3

1.5

0.443

0.817

Andre Iguodala

63.4

13

5.3

5.4

1.1

1.7

0.7

2.6

0.451

0.574

Kyle Lowry

69

11.6

4.7

6.4

1.5

1.4

0.4

2.3

0.401

0.795

Luol Deng

   79.5

16.5

6.3

3.0

1.0

1.1

0.4

1.9

0.426

0.816

 

Paul Pierce

79.6

18.6

6.3

4.8

1.9

1.1

0.4

2.8

0.436

0.787

Tyreke Evans

79.7

15.2

4.4

3.5

0.7

1.4

0.4

2

0.478

0.775

O.J. Mayo

84.8

15.3

3.5

4.4

1.7

1.1

0.3

2.5

0.449

0.82

 

As you can see, obtaining blocks is extremely difficult.  A strict list would only contain four players.

If there is one thing this chart does tell us, it is that Nicolas Batum should be taken a lot sooner than his current ADP indicates.  He does it all, and if it wasn’t for that wrist injury and later a shoulder injury, I have a feeling he would have completely broke out.  Paul George is taken 10 picks ahead of him.  Batum is being undervalued and I can only assume this will change as the season draws near.  But there is no doubt the injuries gives us a discount, so take advantage on what should be first round profit.

Each player on this list has flaws.  I highlighted some of their deficiencies in red.  Personally, I like to avoid low shooting percentage players, but if you have a lot of plus percentage guys on your team, you can get away with having a couple of low percentage shooters, especially if they are as valuable as Batum or George.

Kobe Bryant really is amazing.  The age and injury are concerning, no doubt, but he hates to not play and that certainly helps his case for being taken towards the end of the third round.  If he is close to full health towards the start of the season, he is a guy to grab.

Josh Smith is the kind of fantasy player that is really enticing, but that free throw percentage is a disaster.  The turnovers don’t help either.  You also have to wonder if he will give up on shooting the three or if they will simply fail to go in.  He shot only 30.3% from downtown in 2012 and it was even worse in 2011.  A much more attractive fantasy option than real life option, I may bite the bullet on the FT% and TOs if I trust I can get the rest of my team to make up for his deficiencies. 

Chandler Parsons needs to be on your team.  His price should be cheap enough come draft day and I don’t believe Dwight Howard will hurt his value anyway.  In fact, those steals, assists, and threes may go up a tick.

There are a few players on this list whose numbers could decline.  Paul Pierce seems to be an early favorite to see that occur.  He is already a risk to miss double digit games (voluntary rest/injury), and his usage should be lessened on a Nets team that has a lot of weapons.  Another potential decliner is Jrue Holiday.  The more I look into him, the more I understand why the Philadelphia 76ers did what they did.  Holiday is more of a high volume/high usage player, than a highly efficient one, and the turnovers are a bit out of hand as well.  He will be entering his 5th year into the league and has yet to improve upon any of his shooting percentages.  He will need to be paid big time soon, so why commit that much of your cap space to a guy you aren’t sure on.  You can’t take that chance anymore; the new CBA is so unforgiving. 

Potential Mini Lebrons in 2013:

Here are a few players who didn’t make the list above, but may enter into the Mini Lebron category this season:

John Wall (205 ADP): Some dislike Wall, and that contract will only make the critics come out stronger against him, but he is developing a three-point shot away from being a big across the board fantasy contributor.  He even averaged .9 blocks a game last season (.8 in 2011).  He does need to stay healthy, however.

Eric Bledsoe (49.2): As mentioned earlier, teammate Goran Dragic actually called Bledsoe, “Mini Lebron James”, so it is only right for him to be on this list.  Well that, and because he actually deserves it.  I expect an uptick in threes and I believe he will be filling up the stat sheet for the Phoenix Suns, and that could even include some blocked shots.

Gordon Hayward (95.6 ADP): He is ready for a big role increase on the Utah Jazz after the departure of Paul Millsap and Zach Randolph.  He already posted some real nice across the board numbers last season, and now with the added minutes and responsibility, I see no reason for a decline.  Teammates such as Derrick Favors have more than enough talent to help out the fourth year swingman. 

Jimmy Butler (95.8 ADP): He stepped up in a big way for the Chicago Bulls during the playoffs, but there is a chance this pick as a Mini Lebron could not work out.  Butler’s offensive game still needed some polishing last season, so it should be interesting to see how much he has developed.  However, I like his game and he could contribute in most of the eight categories.  Hopefully he worked on that three-ball.

Danny Granger (109.2 ADP): His health will probably stop him from really ever getting there, but there was a point in time when Granger put up close to a steal and block per game, drained threes, scooped a half a dime in rebounds, and added a couple of assists.  Those days may be long gone, but it is certainly worth to take a late flyer on that type of production.  Just be aware of his poor FG%.

Victor Oladipo (127 ADP): The Orlando Magic will give him every opportunity to be the focal point of their team.  Oladipo is expected to play both guard positions, and although there may be some bumps in the road, he should end up being a nice fantasy contributor this season.

Across the board contributors can help lead you to a title, so be sure to find those gems.  They may not be great at one particular thing, but they will help you each week in every category.  I suggest passing on players who provide awesomeness in a couple of categories and draft the more balanced player who gives you something in every area (ADP driving the context of course).  A collection of these guys could push your team towards greatness.

I sent the definitions of Mini Lebron to UrbanDictionary.com, but I’m not sure they will make the cut.  If I missed a player who could qualify for definition number one, be sure to point him out in the comments below.  Also be sure to follow me on Twitter @Rich_Migs.  You can tweet me any questions or comments you may have about basketball or anything else.  I will be involved with basketball all season long as I wait for the Knicks to disappoint me yet again.

Previous post

Fantasy Football 2013: Critiquing Brian Hoyer

Next post

2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix, October 1: Week 5 WR Daily Fantasy Strategy

5 Comments

  1. Tom
    October 3, 2013 at 10:50 pm

    MKD – If he ever develops a jump shot; AK47 – needs playing time to be a mini LeBron; Valanciunas – could be a mini LeBron of the C position; What about Reggie Jackson?

    • October 3, 2013 at 11:38 pm

      Reggie Jackson is really interesting. This article was released before Westbrook’s setback. He can definitely help all fantasy teams. His per-36 indicates he can contribute across the board, but maybe we shouldn’t have those kind of expectations. Still, a guy to go get on draft day because even when Westbrook comes back, there’s no reason for him not to get significant minutes if he is producing.

      I assume you mean MKG, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Not a 3-point threat, at least as of yet, but if he can even drain .5 a game, it would help. He can help with steals and blocks. If he can get his offensive game together, he could give some nice value. That seems like a big IF, however.

      As for Andrei Kirilenko, his dual SF/PF eligibility will help his value some. Too bad he isn’t in a starting situation. But with the Nets and their age, time off and injury could occur.

      Valanciunas is primed for a big season, but I wouldn’t expect him to produce in areas such as assists, threes, and even steals. I am going to have a big man article up in the coming days, so look out for it.

      Out of all the guys you mentioned, Reggie Jackson is most deserving to be on that list. That was a solid mention. If AK47 was in a better situation, he’d also belong on the list, but I am not sure how limited his playing time will be. He could go from 32 minutes to 20-25 minutes. Big time drop.

      I would rank AK47 ahead of MKG, but if MKG ever got it together, you could almost seem him putting up numbers similar to what AK47 did last season.

      • Alex
        November 10, 2013 at 6:59 pm

        Hi Rich,
        This article was one of my favorites for fantasy basketball. Is there anyway you can do a follow-up article?

        I’d love to know how these players have performed so far relative to projections. I’m also more interested in players who have stepped up into “Mini Lebron” territory.

        Alex

        • November 10, 2013 at 8:14 pm

          Hi Alex,

          Thanks so much for the compliment. I like to know when people enjoy our work here because it will help me and all the writers come up with more great ideas to write about in the future. So thanks for that,

          As for the Mini Lebrons follow up piece, that’s a good idea. I think it would be good to follow up on some realistic trade targets and even possible pickups. Of course, they would be on the low-end, since anyone performing well will likely be taken and it would seem unlikely anyone deals Lebron (bad back or not) or Durant.

          As for guys who are entering Mini Lebron territory, I think we successfully hit on some guys in the article above. I’m happy about that. Especially the first three mentioned in the potential Mini Lebron camp.

          It’s still early, but if Lillard can up his steals and continue to crash the boards like he has, he is definitely can be placed in the Mini Lebron tier. Evan Turner is knocking on the door. And Afflalo is off to a hot start and producing across the board numbers. I don’t think that will continue, but I also didn’t think Afflalo would be going off like this. I expected him to put up more boring numbers.

          I think looking at more big men would be helpful as well. We would normally ignore threes, but someone like Kevin Love is just smashing so many cats that if he can manage to get one steal and half a block per game, wowza. Paul Millsap is dishing out almost 4 assists per game and is hitting every category. He was a steal in a lot of leagues because of that injury he had in the last week of the preseason.

          Thanks for the idea Alex, I think I will revisit these kinds of players this week!

        • Alex
          October 6, 2014 at 9:37 pm

          Checking in again for the “mini-Lebron” article again haha. Would love one for the new season!