2012 Fantasy Football, Week 10 Sit ‘Em/Start ‘Em: Mountain Out of a Tannehill
QB Start
Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins, Week 10: vs. Tennessee, FantasyPros.com rank: 18, My rank: 11)
Tannehill is 16th in yards per attempt and 16th in accuracy % (which is completion % less drops, throw aways and spikes). So he’s right in the middle of the pack skill-wise at QB, which means he’s talented enough to be a guy who can crack the top 12 in the right matchup. And the Titans are just that matchup.
The Titans allow the sixth most net yards per pass attempt, and Tannehill has shown an ability to throw the deep ball. It’s a small sample size, but on throws of 20+ yards Tannehill is 12-21 for 403 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. Moreover, he has the highest accuracy % on those 20+ yard throws.
If you’re looking for a bye-week filler for Rodgers or RGIII, Tannehill is available in 15.8% of ESPN leagues.
QB Sit
Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers, Week 10: @ Tampa Bay, FantasyPros.com rank: 12, My rank 18)
Rivers is 25th in DVOA among QBs, 18th in ProFootballFocus.com’s QB rating, and 21st in yards per attempt. Everyone is counting on Rivers to bounce back, but this isn’t a situation where the underlying numbers portend a recovery from some bad luck like a high interception rate. Rivers has just been bad, and there doesn’t seem to be any indication that he’s going to get good again.
RB Start
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs, Week 10: @ Pittsburgh, FantasyPros.com rank: 19, My rank: 15)
There is a reason you drafted Charles in the second or third round. I’m just not a fan of sitting your high draft picks absent injury or them losing their job. The Chiefs game plan has essentially taken Charles’ role away the last few weeks, but the people who make that game plan need to utilize Charles more if they want to keep making game plans.
RB Sit
Mikel Leshoure (Detroit Lions, Week 10: @ Minnesota, FantasyPros.com rank: 18, My rank: 23)
The Lions offensive line is a pretty good run blocking squad at 7th in adjusted line yards. But the Minnesota defensive line isn’t bad either at 8th in adjusted line yards. So assuming the matchup of the lines is a wash, Leshoure’s talent is the tiebreaker. And Leshoure’s talent is suspect. He’s 45th of 48 in yards after contact and has only forced four missed tackles in 112 touches.
With Joique Bell getting three more yards on three less carries last week, it’s clear this is somewhat of a timeshare. And even though Leshoure looks to be the goal line back, you can’t trust a less-than-talented back in a timeshare.
WR Start
Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants, Week 10: @Cincinnati, FantasyPros.com rank: 22, My rank: 18)
Like Charles, there is a reason you drafted Nicks when you did. As long as he’s healthy, you have to keep running him out there.
WR Sit
Steve Johnson (Buffalo Bills, Week 10: @ New England, FantasyPros.com rank: 23, My rank: 20)
Of 70 qualified receivers, only two have failed to record a reception on a ball thrown more than 20 yards. Those two receivers are Johnson and the incredibly disappointing Justin Blackmon. The Bills actually haven’t utilized Johnson as much of a deep threat in the past, but they’re doing so even less this season. And he’s just been less effective. His yards per route run was 1.95 in 2010, dropped to 1.82 in 2011, and is down to 1.52 this year.
TE Start
Brandon Myers (Oakland Raiders, Week 10: @ Baltimore, FantasyPros.com rank: 12, My rank: 8)
TE Sit
Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers, Week 10: @ Tampa Bay, FantasyPros.com rank: 5, My rank: 14)
I know I keep listing these guys in these respective capacities (three weeks running), but I’ll continue to do so until perception of them changes, which it clearly hasn’t.
Among tight ends, Myers is 7th in DVOA, 5th in receptions, 12th in targets and 3rd in catch rate. He also has 23 catches in Oakland’s four games since their bye. Myers has displayed the ability to consistently catch balls and place him in that second tier of tight ends that won’t kill you if they don’t find the end zone.
Meanwhile, Gates has not displayed such consistency. He has two or fewer fantasy points in half of his games. He’s 20th among tight ends in receptions, 18th in targets, and 22nd in DVOA. He’s had one great game, one decent one, and that’s it. He can’t be trusted.
Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins, Week 10: vs. Tennessee, FantasyPros.com rank: 18, My rank: 11)
Tannehill is 16th in yards per attempt and 16th in accuracy % (which is completion % less drops, throw aways and spikes). So he’s right in the middle of the pack skill-wise at QB, which means he’s talented enough to be a guy who can crack the top 12 in the right matchup. And the Titans are just that matchup.
The Titans allow the sixth most net yards per pass attempt, and Tannehill has shown an ability to throw the deep ball. It’s a small sample size, but on throws of 20+ yards Tannehill is 12-21 for 403 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. Moreover, he has the highest accuracy % on those 20+ yard throws.
If you’re looking for a bye-week filler for Rodgers or RGIII, Tannehill is available in 15.8% of ESPN leagues.
QB Sit
Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers, Week 10: @ Tampa Bay, FantasyPros.com rank: 12, My rank 18)
Rivers is 25th in DVOA among QBs, 18th in ProFootballFocus.com’s QB rating, and 21st in yards per attempt. Everyone is counting on Rivers to bounce back, but this isn’t a situation where the underlying numbers portend a recovery from some bad luck like a high interception rate. Rivers has just been bad, and there doesn’t seem to be any indication that he’s going to get good again.
RB Start
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs, Week 10: @ Pittsburgh, FantasyPros.com rank: 19, My rank: 15)
There is a reason you drafted Charles in the second or third round. I’m just not a fan of sitting your high draft picks absent injury or them losing their job. The Chiefs game plan has essentially taken Charles’ role away the last few weeks, but the people who make that game plan need to utilize Charles more if they want to keep making game plans.
RB Sit
Mikel Leshoure (Detroit Lions, Week 10: @ Minnesota, FantasyPros.com rank: 18, My rank: 23)
The Lions offensive line is a pretty good run blocking squad at 7th in adjusted line yards. But the Minnesota defensive line isn’t bad either at 8th in adjusted line yards. So assuming the matchup of the lines is a wash, Leshoure’s talent is the tiebreaker. And Leshoure’s talent is suspect. He’s 45th of 48 in yards after contact and has only forced four missed tackles in 112 touches.
With Joique Bell getting three more yards on three less carries last week, it’s clear this is somewhat of a timeshare. And even though Leshoure looks to be the goal line back, you can’t trust a less-than-talented back in a timeshare.
WR Start
Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants, Week 10: @Cincinnati, FantasyPros.com rank: 22, My rank: 18)
Like Charles, there is a reason you drafted Nicks when you did. As long as he’s healthy, you have to keep running him out there.
WR Sit
Steve Johnson (Buffalo Bills, Week 10: @ New England, FantasyPros.com rank: 23, My rank: 20)
Of 70 qualified receivers, only two have failed to record a reception on a ball thrown more than 20 yards. Those two receivers are Johnson and the incredibly disappointing Justin Blackmon. The Bills actually haven’t utilized Johnson as much of a deep threat in the past, but they’re doing so even less this season. And he’s just been less effective. His yards per route run was 1.95 in 2010, dropped to 1.82 in 2011, and is down to 1.52 this year.
TE Start
Brandon Myers (Oakland Raiders, Week 10: @ Baltimore, FantasyPros.com rank: 12, My rank: 8)
TE Sit
Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers, Week 10: @ Tampa Bay, FantasyPros.com rank: 5, My rank: 14)
I know I keep listing these guys in these respective capacities (three weeks running), but I’ll continue to do so until perception of them changes, which it clearly hasn’t.
Among tight ends, Myers is 7th in DVOA, 5th in receptions, 12th in targets and 3rd in catch rate. He also has 23 catches in Oakland’s four games since their bye. Myers has displayed the ability to consistently catch balls and place him in that second tier of tight ends that won’t kill you if they don’t find the end zone.
Meanwhile, Gates has not displayed such consistency. He has two or fewer fantasy points in half of his games. He’s 20th among tight ends in receptions, 18th in targets, and 22nd in DVOA. He’s had one great game, one decent one, and that’s it. He can’t be trusted.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. If you have any further questions about this particular topic, feel free to ask him on Twitter (@TheRealTAL) or email him at [email protected].
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