2013 Fantasy FootballBrett TalleyFantasy FootballFantasy Football Salary Cap Analysis

2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix, December 3rd: Week 14 WR Daily Fantasy Strategy

Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix

Coming up in today’s daily fix I discuss Josh McCown, Brian Hartline and Jared Cook, and I have some week 14 wide receiver recommendations for DraftKings contests (#DFS). And you might want to read those WR recommendations because last week my three big recommendations were Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery and Michael Floyd. BOOM.

News and Notes

  • I have taken awhile to buy into Josh McCown because of his career mark of 6.5 yards per attempt (7.0-7.4 is average). But his YPA is 7.9 this year, presumably thanks to Marc Trestman’s offense and having two stud receivers in Marshall and Jeffery. So I’m finally giving in and accepting him as a viable fantasy option. And that’s especially true this week against the Cowboys who had allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks coming into week 13. I like him and the matchup so much that I’m guessing I’ll have him ranked five or six at quarterback this week. Unless you have one of the stud QBs, I’d add McCown and roll with him this week. He’s still available in about 85% of ESPN.com leagues.
  • Brian Hartline now has 41 targets and 24 catches in his last four games with at least five catches and at least 57 yards in each game (average of 82 yards per game). His schedule coming up isn’t terrible. He’s got Pittsburgh this week who has allowed totals of 34, 34 and 44 fantasy points to wide receivers in the last four weeks. New England in week 15 isn’t great, but he’s got two top ten matchups against the Bills and Jets to close out the year. He’s a nice flex option in PPR and is available in about 65% of ESPN.com leagues.
  • Jared Cook has been largely irrelevant since he torched the Cardinals for 26 fantasy points in the first week of the season. But this week he’ll get the Cardinals again, and the Cardinals have continued to struggle with tight ends all year long. Prior to getting lit up by the Philly tight ends last week, they were allowing three and a half more fantasy points per game to tight ends than any other team in the league. Cook may finally be relevant again this week.

DraftKings Wide Receiver Recommendations

Week 13 is in the books and I had a huge week. I cashed in almost all my tournament entries, and the boss Alan Harrison and I won a qualifier for the Week 16 Millionaire Grand Final which has $3.1 million in prizes and a million dollar grand prize. Qualifiers for this insane contest are going on weekly.

As mentioned, my recommendations in this space last week paid off big time. My three big plays were Gordon, Jeffery and Floyd. I paired up Gordon and Jeffery in three lineups and those lineups gave me a 50:1 return. I didn’t have all three in any league, although it easily would have been possible to do so given their prices. Be forewarned that my picks this week have little chance of being that good again. First, I’m not going to get that lucky twice in a row. But second, it’s unlikely that anyone performs like Gordon and Jeffery did this week. So lower your expectations, please.

Below I’ve got options in several different price ranges. This will allow you some flexibility when building your team depending on what you would like to do at other positions.

DraftKings uses a PPR format.

Luxury Options

Here are the luxury priced options for the week.

I love Megatron’s matchup with Philly, but that price is prohibitive. Gordon’s price is also too high, especially with a below average matchup with New England. I like Marshall’s matchup with Dallas, but Jeffery has been the more productive receiver there for awhile now and comes $700 cheaper. And I’m not touching Demaryius in his matchup with Tennessee or Dez who had been medicore at best recently.

So that leaves Jeffery (who I imagine I’ll once again be combining with Josh McCown quite a bit) and Green. It’s really tough to pass up Green because the Colts have been getting killed by receivers lately. In their last four games against anyone other than the Titans, the Colts are allowing 39 fantasy points per game to receivers. THIRTY-NINE! The Eagles, who are last in the league in fantasy points allowed to receivers, were only allowing 28.9 per game for the year prior to week 13.

Reasonable Option

When trying to pick some mid-priced options, four names stood out: Torrey Smith, Riley Cooper, Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas. They all have good matchups, but they all have things that make you hesitate. Smith and Cooper are both fairly boom-or-bust. Wright is a very, very safe option in PPR formats but has little upside. And Douglas will be playing in Green Bay where it will be 18 degrees.

I’m throwing out Douglas because he’s my least favorite of these four in general, and I don’t need much of a reason to cross him off. And I’m not using Wright in any contest with top-heavy payouts. If you want to use him in some 50/50s, go for it. And so, Smith or Cooper? Who is more likely to be boom than bust? Ultimately, I’m going with Cooper ($6,400) because I’m a huge fan of using QB-WR combos and I’d much rather use Nick Foles than Joe Flacco.

Cheap Option

Brian Hartline ($5,100) – I detailed why I like Hartline and why I like the matchup with the Steelers above. And I especially like him as only the 35th most expensive receiver of the week.

Cheapest Guy I Can Recommend

Kris Durham, $3,100 – As mentioned, I love pairing QB-WR combos, but it’s almost impossible to pair Matthew Stafford and Megatron as both are among the most expensive players at their position. But a Stafford/Durham combo will only cost you $13,200 this week. That’s roughly a quarter of your salary and should allow you to fill out the rest of your roster nicely, especially if you go cheap at kicker and defense (as you almost always should).

This is a really good matchup with the Eagles who, as mentioned, were allowing the most fantasy points to receivers prior to last week (and likely still are). Durham was second on the team in targets last week behind only Megatron. And I went back and watched his plays. Most of his targets were on downfield plays and almost all in opposition territory. Throw in his height (6’8″) and that makes for a good candidate to score. I’ll take a shot on that with a guy who is going for only $100 more than the minimum price.

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