2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix, November 12th: Week 11 WR Daily Fantasy Strategy
News and Notes
- Attention Tony Romo owners: Nick Foles is still available in over half of ESPN.com leagues. If you need a bye week fill-in, Foles is obviously your #1 waiver wire target this week. But if Foles is still available in your league, I might honestly be looking to deal my starting QB and rolling with Foles the rest of the way. Any criticism of Foles has to start with the argument that the seven TD game was a fluke. OK, fine. But if we’re throwing out his best game, it seems only fair to throw out his worst as well. Once you throw out his stinker against Dallas, you’re left with three starts where Foles averaged 22 fantasy points. He’s #1 in ProFootballFocus’ passer rating, he’s 9th in accuracy percentage (completion percentage less drops, throw aways and spikes), and he’s got a kick ass schedule coming up: Washington, Bye, Arizona, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas. Damn. What a playoff schedule. Seriously, I might deal guys like Romo, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and Russell Wilson for good RBs and WRs if I had the option of adding Foles.
- I always like to look at running backs who scored touchdowns in the previous week to see if any of them are potential sell high candidates. Maurice Jones-Drew and DeAngelo Williams both scored this week but did little else. People are likely wise to their flaws, but if you’re going to unload them, it’ll be easier to do this week than in future weeks when they don’t score.
- Rob Housler was a tight end I took a flier on in a league or two. Unfortunately it took ten weeks for him to do anything. But he’s a guy I like. He seems to fit that big and athletic tight end mold. And I really like his matchup with the Jaguars this week who are allowing about 10 fantasy points per game to tight ends (4th most in the league) and who have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends in the last six weeks. Housler is available in virtually every league, so there’s a TE streamer candidate for you if you’re the streamer type. He could also be a nice value play in daily fantasy contests.
DraftKings Wide Receiver Recommendations
Week 10 is in the books and I have tripled my money as I cashed in a 50/50 this weekend. But when week 16 rolls around I could have a chance to “millionaire up” when DraftKings hosts a contest with $3.1 million in prizes and a million dollar grand prize. Qualifiers for this insane contest are going on weekly.
Before we get to the recommendations, here are the rules for the various NFL games DraftKings offers and a quick look at how wide receivers score points:
- 10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
- Reception = +1PT
- Receiving TD = +6PTs
- 100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
- Fumble Lost = -1PT
- 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs
Below I’ve got options in several different price ranges. This will allow you some flexibility when building your team depending on what you would like to do at other positions.
Andre Johnson, $8,800 – Surely you’ve heard this stat, but Andre Johnson’s five touchdowns in his last two games are more than he had in the 28 games prior. Case Keenum is getting a lot of the credit for this. And he deserves some because he has heavily targeted Johnson. But another big reason for Johnson’s sudden TD outburst is the injuries to Foster and Tate. The Texans ran the ball a lot in tight, and that doesn’t seem to be such a huge focus with their backs ailing. Keenum is the QB this week and Foster is done for the year, so I expect Johnson’s TD resurgence to continue, especially in a nice matchup against Oakland.
Vincent Jackson, $7,100 – Jackson struggled on Monday night, but Miami has Brent Grimes who is a top end cover corner according to ProFootballfocus. But this week he’ll face the Falcons who don’t have anyone nearly as good as Grimes. Their rookie, Desmond Trufant, has played well, but he’s not a corner you have to stay away from.
Antonio Brown, $6,500 – Brown should be listed among the luxury options. He’s an elite receiver, but he’s not priced like one (only the 14th most expensive receiver this week). He is 7th in the league in targets, 9th in receiving yards, and most importantly, since DraftKings uses a PPR format, 1st in receptions. He has a great matchup against the Lions who have allowed the third most fantasy points per game to receivers.
Torrey Smith, $5,400 – Here is your bargain of the week. Only the 26th most expensive receiver of the week, Smith has the potential to return serious value. His usage has been good (fairly consistent targets and receptions), but he just hasn’t scored. But he’s got a good chance to hit a big one this week. He’ll face the Bears who have allowed the most net yards per pass attempt, and Smith is the league’s biggest deep threat as he’s seen the highest number of deep targets in the league this year.
Percy Harvin, $3,400 – The DraftKings pricing model doesn’t have as much information as we do. Obviously. As long as Harvin plays this week as has been reported, how are you not starting him at this price? That would be the case in any matchup, but Harvin has an especially good one against Minnesota.
Cheapest Guy I Can Recommend
Rishard Matthews, $3,000 – 14 targets, 11 receptions, 120 yards, two touchdowns, 24 fantasy points. What a line from Matthews on Monday Night Football. Brandon Gibson was doing a lot of damage as the #3 receiver in Miami’s offense prior to getting hurt, so maybe Matthews is taking over that role a little bit. He won’t have a game that good the rest of the season, but even if he cut his production in half next week (5 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD), he’d still return big value on this price. And there’s a decent chance he could do that in a good matchup with San Diego.