2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix, November 26th: Week 13 WR Daily Fantasy Strategy
Coming up in today’s daily fix I discuss Andy Dalton, Nate Burleson and Coby Fleener, and I have some week 13 wide receiver recommendations for DraftKings contests (#DFS).
News and Notes
- With the bye week last week, Andy Dalton was dropped in about 8% of leagues and is now owned in less than half of ESPN.com leagues. He had a run of three bad games before the bye, but he also faced some tough competition. His schedule after the bye is much softer. Below is a chart showing his schedule before and after the bye. To illustrate the difficulty of the matchups, I’ve included his opponent’s rank in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, their ProFootballFocus rank in pass coverage, and their Football Outsiders rank in pass defense.
- Welcome back, Nate Burleson. Burleson’s name will appear in a lot of waiver wire articles this week, and I’ll join in on the love. He caught seven balls for 77 yards and a score on ten targets. And he was clearly the second option for Stafford as Kris Durham only saw six targets. The one concern I have is that the Lions have several other good red zone targets. Megatron is obviously a red zone threat. Joseph Fauria seems to get all his looks in the end zone. And Durham is even a big target that would seem to be a better red zone receiver. So Burleson should be more of a target in PPR leagues.
- I mentioned Coby Fleener in this space last week, and he had a nice day against the Cardinals with four catches for 55 yards and a score. He’s got 26 fantasy points and 28 targets the last three weeks, and he’s safely in TE1 territory now. But he’s only owned in about 60% of ESPN.com leagues. Guys like Greg Olsen, Jared Cook and Brandon Myers are owned in more leagues. I assume quite a few of you could drop Olsen for Fleener, and that is a move I’d make. Especially with Fleener having a nice matchup against the Titans this week. The Titans have excellent cover corners on the outside, but up the seam with the tight end is the best way to beat them through the air.
DraftKings Wide Receiver Recommendations
Week 12 is in the books and I have tripled my money as I cashed in a 50/50 this weekend. But when week 16 rolls around I could have a chance to “millionaire up” when DraftKings hosts a contest with $3.1 million in prizes and a million dollar grand prize. Qualifiers for this insane contest are going on weekly.
Before we get to the recommendations, here are the rules for the various NFL games DraftKings offers and a quick look at how wide receivers score points:
- 10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
- Reception = +1PT
- Receiving TD = +6PTs
- 100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
- Fumble Lost = -1PT
- 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs
Below I’ve got options in several different price ranges. This will allow you some flexibility when building your team depending on what you would like to do at other positions.
Note: These selections are only for the Sunday games as the Thanksgiving day games and Sunday games are completely split up this week.
Josh Gordon, $8,000 – In one of my best calls of the year, I recommended Gordon in this article last week. He’s obviously a bit more pricey this week, but I still think he’s the best of the elite options. There’s a clear group of five elite guys as Gordon is the 5th most expensive receiver at $8,000 and the 6th most expensive guy only costs $7,100. Among those other five you have Demaryius Thomas against the Chiefs and one of three good pass-catching options on his team. I’d rather have Gordon. Andre Johnson costs $900 more and is playing in a very uncertain situation in Houston. I’d rather have Gordon. Brandon Marshall has a good matchup, but he costs over $1,000 more and I think Jeffery is the better play on that team. I’d rather have Gordon. I do like A.J. Green against the Chargers, but he’s $600 more than Gordon. I’ll take Gordon and spend that extra $600 elsewhere.
Alshon Jeffery, $6,400 – Since Chicago’s week eight bye, Jeffery has 47 targets in just four games. He’s used heavily and he gets used near the end zone, so he’s an incredibly attractive option. That’s especially true against the Vikings who are a bottom five pass defense according to both ProFootballFocus and Football Outsiders. I’m almost positive Jeffery will end up in my top 10 receivers when I do my week 13 ranks on Tuesday night, but he’s only the 13th most expensive receiver.
Michael Floyd, $5,900 – I wrote at length about Floyd in this article last week, and he did not disappoint with another 100 yard day against the Colts. He’s pretty clearly a top 20 option at this point, and he’s only the 17th most expensive receiver this week with a good matchup against the Jags.
Michael Crabtree, $3,600 – The matchup with the Rams is just average, but this is a huge value if Crabtree plays. Simple as that.
Cheapest Guy I Can Recommend
Rishard Matthews, $3,000 – I was buying the Matthews breakout a few weeks ago to some degree, and I still like him. He followed up his breakout game with four catches for 52 yards against the Chargers and struggled last week in a tough matchup with Carolina. But he was still second on the team in targets with seven. If he gets that many targets this week, he’ll fare much better against the Jets who allow the seventh most fantasy points to wide receivers.