2013 Fantasy FootballBrett TalleyFantasy Football

2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix, October 8th: Week 6 WR Daily Fantasy Strategy

Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix

Coming up in today’s daily fix I’ve got some buy low and sell high candidates as well as some daily fantasy strategy with wide receiver recommendations for DraftKings daily fantasy contests this weekend.

News and Notes

Buy Low

The New York Giants  – Every offensive player on the Giants is a buy low. The guys in the passing game are buy lows because their schedule the rest of the way is absolute cake. Aside from a rough matchup with Chicago this week and the Seahawks in week 15, the other nine teams the Giants will face are all currently in the bottom 12 of passing yards allowed per game. David Wilson is a buy low because he’s really all they’ve got. His neck injury from last week is a little concerning, but it also makes him easier to acquire at the moment. It wouldn’t take a whole lot to get him, so make an offer.

Sell High

Mike Wallace – I avoided drafting Wallace in all leagues because he’s wildly inconsistent, and he’s been as inconsistent as ever this year with three games with less than 25 yards and two games with more than 100 yards. He’s coming off one of those 100 yards games, and it may be one of the few he has left considering his schedule the rest of the way. Aside from a couple of games against the Bills and a game against the Chargers, Wallace has matchups that are far more likely to see him end up with less than 25 yards.

DraftKings Wide Receiver Recommendations

Week 5 is in the books and I have tripled my money as I cashed in a Triple Up! this weekend. But when week 16 rolls around I could have a chance to “millionaire up” when DraftKings hosts a contest with $3.1 million in prizes and a million dollar grand prize. Qualifiers for this insane contest are going on weekly.

Before we get to the recommendations, here are the rules for the various NFL games DraftKings offers and a quick look at how wide receivers score points:

  • 10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
  • Reception = +1PT
  • Receiving TD = +6PTs
  • 100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
  • Fumble Lost = -1PT
  • 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs

Below I’ve got options in several different price ranges. This will allow you some flexibility when building your team depending on what you would like to do at other positions.

Luxury Options

Dez Bryant, $8,900 – This could not be a bigger mismatch. Dez is one of the two or three best receivers in the game, and the Redskins are one of the five worst pass defense in the league. And the game is inside and on the turf in Dallas.

Torrey Smith, $7,000 – Smith’s usage has been consistently awesome this year. He has at least eight targets in each game and is averaging about ten per game. He also has at least 85 yards per game and thus at least eight fantasy points per game. All of that should continue this week against a Packers team has allowed six touchdowns to receivers in just four games.

Reasonable Options

Reggie Wayne, $6,700 – Wayne has struggled in the three matchups he’s had this year against teams that are top ten in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to receivers. But he had essentially 100 yards and a score in each of the games against non-elite pass defenses. This week he’ll face the Chargers who are not only a non-elite pass defense but one of the five worst pass defenses in the league.

Alshon Jeffery, $5,800 – Jeffery has been getting a lot of targets for several weeks now, but he got 13 this week and turned them into ten catches, 218 yards and a score. DraftKings gets their week 6 contests up very early, so the pricing model isn’t taking Jeffery’s big week 5 into account, which is why he’s only the 28th most expensive receiver. He’s got a good matchup against the Giants this week, and it’s likely that the Giants best cover corner, Prince Amukamara, will spend most of his time covering Brandon Marshall.

Cheap Options

Cecil Shorts, $5,000Justin Blackmon had the bigger day in week 5, but Shorts still got 74 yards and a score and received one more target than Blackmon. There’s room for both of them in this offense, but Shorts has a much longer track record of consistency and is the Jacksonville receiver you want to own. There’s absolutely no reason that Blackmon should be the 16th most expensive receiver and Shorts the 38th. Shorts should be far better than the 38th best receiver this week against the Broncos who are allowing over 200 yards per game to receivers.

Michael Floyd, $4,200 – Floyd’s usage has been very consistent this year as he has been targeted at least six times in each game. And he’s really distanced himself from Andre Roberts and taken over the WR2 role in Arizona as Floyd has 23 targets to Roberts’ seven since week 3. Unfortunately, Floyd has yet find the end zone despite the fact that Mike Clay says his expected TD total was 2.5 after four weeks based on the frequency of his usage and the proximity of his usage to the goal line. Even though his oppoenet for the week, San Francisco, seems like a tough matchup, the Niners have struggled against non-#1 receivers. I think this is the week Floyd finally scores.

Cheapest Guy I Can Recommend

Doug Baldwin, $3,000 – Three grand is the cheapest price a player can go for, and Baldwin is the only 3K receiver who sees regular work. I didn’t go through and check this exactly, but to my knowledge, Baldwin is the only receiver at this price with 15+ targets. The matchup with Tennessee isn’t great, but if you’ve got to go bargain basement with a receiver to spend big elsewhere, Baldwin is probably your best bet.

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