2013 Fantasy FootballBrett TalleyFantasy Football

2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: September 24

Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix

Coming up in today’s fantasy football version of the daily fix, I’ve got some buy low and sell high candidates as well as some daily fantasy strategy with wide receiver recommendations for DraftKings daily fantasy contests this weekend.

News and Notes

Buy Low

Doug Martin – Aside from Adrian Peterson, there’s still no one I’d rather own than Martin. Not considering Martin, the strongest arguments for the #2 overall pick if we redrafted today would be LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch. I love McCoy and had him as a top five overall pick this preseason, but I’d still prefer Martin by a hair just because of McCoy’s concussion history. Predicting injuries is usually a bad idea, but when you’re splitting hairs like this, it’s enough to break a virtual tie.

As for Lynch, I was not a fan of his in the preseason. I was of the opinion that everything went right for Lynch last year. His offensive line stayed almost completely healthy, and he saw the biggest increase in yards per carry ever for a back playing with a new running quarterback. But he’s off to an inauspicious start this year. He’s averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, his star left tackle is out until week 13, and he has six and four fantasy points in two of his three games this year.

Sell High

Jordan Cameron – Full disclosure: I was not high on Cameron in the preseason, and I was not buying into him after the first two weeks. But I am ready and willing to admit that I was wrong. Dead, dead wrong. If we were redrafting tomorrow, I’d probably have Cameron ranked as my fourth or fifth tight end. And that’s probably where most would have him ranked.

But the reason I’d be looking to sell him right now is that I’d probably have my fourth or fifth ranked tight end ranked somewhere in the 70-80 range overall while the consensus would likely have him in the 50-60 range. The fourth and fifth tight ends taken in ESPN drafts were Jason Witten and Vernon Davis who went right about pick 55 on average. Assuming that is indeed where Cameron would be redrafted, here is a list of guys that went after pick 55 in ADP that I assume would still go later than 55 if we redrafted today. I would trade Cameron for all of them.

  • Steve Smith
  • Dwayne Bowe
  • James Jones
  • Ryan Mathews
  • Pierre Garcon
  • Anquan Boldin
  • Torrey Smith

Josh Gordon – I have nothing against Brian Hoyer. And he’s really not much of the reason why I’m selling on both of these Cleveland pass catchers. I didn’t even mention his name when discussing Cameron. The reason I’m selling the two is simply value. As stated, I agree with Cameron’s positional ranking but not his overall ranking. With Gordon, I think his positional ranking is too high even though I do think he’s very useful even in ten-team leagues.

Just to get a feel for what people are thinking on Gordon, I asked my followers where they would rank Gordon at receiver for the rest of the season. I was expecting people to say top 25, maybe even top 20. But the answers I got where either top 20 or top 15. That’s just nuts. There isn’t a single guy who went in the top 15 at WR that I’d take Gordon over at this point. Check out those names here. And there are at least nine or ten names that went outside the top 15 that I’d take over Gordon. So for me he’s a borderline top 25 receiver but probably more of a top 30 guy.

DraftKings Wide Receiver Recommendations

Week 3 is in the books and I have tripled my money as I cashed in a Triple Up! this weekend. But when week 16 rolls around I could have a chance to “millionaire up” when DraftKings hosts a contest with $3.1 million in prizes and a million dollar grand prize. Qualifiers for this insane contest are going on weekly.

Before we get to the recommendations, here are the rules for the various NFL games DraftKings offers and a quick look at how wide receivers score points:

  • 10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
  • Reception = +1PT
  • Receiving TD = +6PTs
  • 100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
  • Fumble Lost = -1PT
  • 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs

One way to find value in DraftKings contests is to take advantage of guys whose performance in week 3 really increased their value. The DraftKings pricing model doesn’t take week 3 performance into account so that they can open contests very early in the week. So let’s take a look at a few guys who saw a big increase in value last week and who might be too cheap this week as a result.

Denarius Moore, $4,700 – Moore had a big night last night with 124 yards and a score on six catches. Because of this recent performance and because of his sweet, sweet matchup against the awful Redskins defense, Moore may be a top 30 receiver for a lot of people this week. But he’s only the 36th most expensive receiver according to DraftKings.

Dwayne Harris, $3,000 – Harris only caught one ball on Sunday, but he made it count as it was a 24 yard touchdown catch. But the most important thing about the TD catch is that it came after Miles Austin left the game with a hamstring injury. The status of Austin for next week was unclear as of this writing. It seems like it’s a minor issue, but given Austin’s history with hamstring injuries, I’d say his status for this week is in doubt. And if he does miss the game, Harris could be a big beneficiary going against a Chargers team that is allowing 234 yards and a score per game to opposing wide receivers. Harris also comes at the cheapest price possible on DraftKings.

Another way to find value is to target guys who have under-performed so far this season. The DK pricing system may not factor week 3 performances into a player’s price, but it does take weeks 1 and 2 into account.

Torrey Smith, $5,700 – Smith has had a very tough schedule to begin the season as he’s had to line up opposite Casey Hayward and Sam Shields, Joe Haden and Jonathan Joseph. Despite that, he’s managed to accumulate 269 yards, which puts him on pace for 1400+ yards. But he hasn’t found the end zone yet. I expect this is the week he finally does that against a Bills defense that has allowed five touchdowns to receivers and three receivers to rack up 100 yards against them. Smith is the 26th most expensive receiver this week, but I think he’s a top 15, borderline top 10, play.

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