2013 Fantasy Football: Week 13 Start/Sit
Below are the guys I like or dislike in week 13 compared to the other experts on FantasyPros.com. I’m focusing on guys that are actually on that start/sit bubble. There’s no need to tell you I’m lower on LeSean McCoy when I have him ranked #10 and the expert consensus rank (ECR) has him ranked #5. Both rankings tell you to start him.
Some of the names discussed below are Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, Le’Veon Bell, Kendall Wright and several others.
Andy Dalton / at San Diego / ECR: 11 / My rank: 8
I wrote about Dalton at length on Monday, but the long and short of what I wrote is that Dalton has played poorly recently in large part because he’s had some tough matchups. But the matchup this week is far from tough. He gets San Diego who is one of the three worst pass defenses in the league according to fantasy points allowed to QBs, ProFootballFocus, and Football Outsiders.
Whoever starts at RB for the Jets / vs. Miami / ECR: outside the top 20 RB / My rank: inside the top 20 RB
Chris Ivory had worked himself into the lead role in the Jets backfield and into safe RB2 territory for fantasy owners. And if he turns out to be healthy come Sunday, he’ll easily be a top 20 back in a great matchup against the Dolphins. They allow the 7th most fantasy points to running backs and are the 4th worst run defense in the league according to Football Outsiders. The matchup is so good that I’d even put Bilal Powell in the top 20 backs if Ivory couldn’t go.
Kendall Wright / at Indianapolis / ECR: 26 / My rank: 20
Last week I listed Wright as a “sit” because he’s not much of a scoring threat. So of course he went out and put up 100 yards and a score. I still worry about his usage in the the red zone, but I’m encouraged that Fitzpatrick looked to Wright in tight in a pivotal late game scenario as you can see in the GIF below. But the main reason I like Wright this week is the matchup with the Colts. Since week five, the colts are allowing over 30 points per game to receivers. The worst team in the league, the Eagles, are allowing 28.9 fantasy points per game to receivers.
Martellus Bennett / at Minnesota / ECR: 11 / My rank: 8
The Vikings are one of the very best matchups for tight ends as they have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends and the second most touchdowns to tight ends. Two of those nine were scored by Bennett when these teams met back in week two. Call it a hunch, but I think Bennett and Alshon Jeffery are more likely to find the end zone this week than Brandon Marshall.
Nick Foles / vs. Arizona / ECR: 7 / My rank: 16
I’m buying Foles as a legit fantasy option, but not until week 14. From week 14 on he faces Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, and Dallas. Those are all excellent matchups, but Arizona this week is not an excellent matchup. According to ProFootballFocus, the Cardinals have two of the ten best cover DBs in the league in Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. And both Football Outsiders and ProFootballfocus have Arizona rated as a top five pass defense.
Le’Veon Bell / at Baltimore / ECR: 19 / My rank: 25
I’ve been saying this for a few weeks now, but Bell just isn’t that good. Of the 51 backs who have been responsible for at least 25% of their team’s carries, Bell ranks 43rd in yards per carry and 38th in yards after contact per carry. And he has just one run of more than 15 yards this year. As you can see below it was just a little inside draw where a big hole opened on the far side of the field. It’s not an overly impressive run. It just seems to be a rare instance of a bad run blocking line opening up a nice hole.
Riley Cooper / vs. Arizona / ECR: 21 / My rank: 34
Like Foles, I’m buying Cooper as a fantasy option. Just not this week in this matchup.
Tony Gonzalez / at Buffalo / ECR: 8 / My rank: 11
Gonzalez is no longer one of the elite tight ends that you roll out each week regardless of his matchup. He’s in that low-end TE1 range where you sit him in the really tough matchups. And this is one of those weeks where he has a tough matchup. The Bills allow the sixth fewest fantasy points to tight ends and are fourth best against the position according to Football Outsiders.