2014 Fantasy Football: Buying Beckham, Selling Torrey
Buying Odell Beckham Jr.
With Victor Cruz out for the season, the Giants will start turning to Odell Beckham Jr. to be a huge catalyst in the offense. Rueben Randle will act as the top receiver, but he was already receiving a ton of targets, and I would be surprised if he sees a huge boost in passes thrown to him. Currently Randle has been thrown to 49 times, which is more than Alshon Jeffery, for example.
Beckham will be a target frequently, and his size and athleticism fit well for the Giants to attempt to replicate what they had in Cruz. Obviously, having both of them on the field at the same time would be ideal, but I think Beckham is going to be very valuable in both real life and fantasy moving forward.
What is interesting about Beckham is that despite diminutive size he is still a big playmaker. While that is true of say, DeSean Jackson, Beckham is different in that he’s got enough bulk on him to act as a middle of the field chain mover as well. Eli Manning has been difficult to predict this year, but expecting 7-10 targets per game for Beckham going forward seems reasonable.
Even with Cruz being out Beckham should not be too expensive in a trade. There is a lot of upside in acquiring him before his first Cruz-less game, and if you are looking for upside at receiver, you may not have a better time than now to go out and get a guy as talented and in as good of a situation as Beckham.
Selling Torrey Smith
Smith is decently talented and in a good offense, but the targets are just not there for him this season. I traded for Smith earlier this season and regret making the move, thinking I was buying low on him. To me, selling him after his two touchdown performance is an easy decision to make. Savvy owners will know it is likely not a regular performance and will not pay a tremendously high premium for Smith, but moving him now makes sense.
My main point in trading him is that he is such a difficult player to start. His week-to-week inconsistencies and overall lack of targets make him a dice-roll every week. He has only 34 targets and 15 catches so far this year, which is only slightly more than two catches per game. In addition, he has scored double digit fantasy points only once.
You will not get a ton in return for Smith since his inconsistencies are well-documented, but moving him after a good week is a decision you will likely not regret, even if the return is less than you would have hoped when you picked him up on draft day.