2014 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: Week 10 Wide Receivers
Welcome to Wide Receiver Wednesday at the Daily Fix! Each Wednesday of the NFL regular season @RyNoonan will provide you with several receiving options that are strong plays that week at DraftKings. Monday through Friday the Fix writers will provide you with a Daily Fix that covers each position, with a weekly roundup on Friday.
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The Wide Receiver position is loaded with options in this new, ever-prolific passing era of the NFL, so options abound. I’ll break it up into tiers, essentially, WR1’s, 2’s, 3’s and FLEX/deep options.
Your WR1 and WR2’s are no-brainer starts in your normal fantasy leagues. I’ll highlight them if they have an exceptional matchup or price. We’re likely going to find some inexpensive plays here week in a week out as well, due to the depth at the position. We’ll need to dig a little deeper as we’re entering bye weeks, but I hope to continue picking winners for you.
Scoring and other settings can be found here.
For reference, you’ll continue to see me use both aFPA (Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) from 4for4.com and DVOA (Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average) from FootballOutsiders.com. These stats become more reliable each week as have real data points to reference instead of only a hybrid of data mixed with pre-season expectations.
Antonio Brown – PIT @ NYJ ($8,700)
It’s currently Tuesday night, so obviously I’ve started building lineups for next week. Don’t judge me. Guess who’s in all of them? Brown was catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger before catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger was cool/something that everyone does. After last week’s 11/144/1 performance, his price dropped $400. Thank you, DraftKings. Brown needs to be in your lineup against the Jets and their 27th ranked pass defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA metric.
Julio Jones – ATL @ TB ($6,600)
Julio Jones faces Tampa Bay, one of the few team’s worst than the Jets when defending the pass. They rank 31st in DVOA, and they’re consistently, across the board, bad. They’re below average at defending each receiving position and particularly struggle against their opponents’ top option. Healthy and fresh off the bye week, that’s Julio Jones. As you’ll see, I like all Falcons receivers this week, which will lead me to start Matt Ryan more than focus on any individual receiver. Again, if I’m spending big here I’m going with Brown, but Julio and Jordy Nelson ($7,600) make sense as well. Jordy’s in a similar situation as Julio where I love the matchup, but more so for his quarterback.
Brandon Marshall – CHI @ GB ($5,600)
This is a bet on positive regression to the mean. We’ve seen nothing of late from Brandon Marshall and the Bears passing attack that makes you feel good about them, but Brandon Marshall is still elite, he’s coming off of a bye and faces a Packers team that’s middle of the ‘pack’ against the pass. It’s a great price for a top-10 wide receiver. Get some shares of Marshall this weekend.
Percy Harvin –PIT @ NYJ ($5,300)
Situation matters when evaluating players and now that Percy Harvin’s situation has changed I have to change how I’m evaluating him. The Jets clearly want to use their new weapon (84% of the snaps on Sunday), and are doing so quite differently than the Seahawks were. Harvin’s size and skill set will never lend themselves to being an elite downfield threat, but don’t look now. The sheer volume of targets alone would make me bump up Harvin in New York, but so far through 2 games Harvin has an average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.9. That’s nearly three times of what it was in Seattle, where is aDOT was 3.4. That’ significant, and shouldn’t be ignored. The Steelers pass defense is helping Ben break records; they’re keeping the game close by stopping no one. Other options that I like in the price range include Steve Smith Sr. – TEN @ BAL ($5,600) and Roddy White – ATL @ TB ($5,100).
Eric Decker – PIT @ NYJ ($4,900)
The addition of Percy Harvin is a welcome sight for Decker, as he’s no longer the lone outside/downfield threat on the team. The Jets have faced a number of good pass defenses in a row (DEN, NE, BUF, KC) so the Steelers offer the first reprieve that the Jets have had in over a month. Decker saw 11 targets last week, and will always be a threat in the red zone. I think he scores this week.
Kelvin Benjamin-CAR @ PHI ($4,200)
*Lights go down. Spotlight on stage. I walk out*
Hey how’s everyone doing tonight, huh? Good looking crowd. So, the good people over at DraftKings are treating Kelvin Benjamin’s price like Benjamin treats footballs.
They dropped it!
Thank you, I’ll be here all week…
After a 2/10/0 performance on 10 targets, Benjamin’s price fell $2,400 this week. That’s an incredible drop in price and one that few daily players can ignore. The targets continue to be there, especially in and around the end zone and there’s no reason to expect that to change. Rookies are inconsistent at times, and drops are something Benjamin struggled with at Florida State. You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have…Kelvin Benjamin. You have to use him this week.
Harry Douglas– ATL @ TB ($3,300)
My top lotto play of the week is Harry Douglas. I mentioned earlier that I like all Falcons pass catchers this week, and Douglas is no different. His price makes him very appealing, as he offers decent WR3 upside in this contest, at nearly minimum price. A Ryan/Douglas stack could pay off handsomely and it’ll cost you less than it does to start Peyton Manning this week.
Baltimore’s Torrey Smith– TEN @ BAL- ($3,500) is an ideal GPP play most weeks, and this is a good spot for him against Tennessee. Smith has been a useful bye week fill in, he’s been a top-15 WR over the past 4 weeks. With the trade of Percy Harvin, Doug Baldwin is clearly the top option in Seattle, but keep an eye on Paul Richardson– NYG @ SEA ($3,100). He’s a talented rookie out of Colorado and is starting to see more and more snaps and targets each week.