2014 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: Week 15 Wide Receivers
Welcome to Wide Receiver Wednesday at the Daily Fix! Each Wednesday of the NFL regular season @RyNoonan will provide you with several receiving options that are strong plays that week at DraftKings. Monday through Friday the Fix writers will provide you with a Daily Fix that covers each position, with a weekly roundup on Friday.
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The Wide Receiver position is loaded with options in this new, ever-prolific passing era of the NFL, so options abound. I’ll break it up into tiers, essentially, WR1’s, 2’s, 3’s and FLEX/deep options.
Your WR1 and WR2’s are no-brainer starts in your normal fantasy leagues. I’ll highlight them if they have an exceptional matchup or price. We’re likely going to find some inexpensive plays here week in a week out as well, due to the depth at the position. We’ll need to dig a little deeper as we’re entering bye weeks, but I hope to continue picking winners for you.
Scoring and other settings can be found here.
For reference, you’ll continue to see me use both aFPA (Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) from 4for4.com and DVOA (Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average) from FootballOutsiders.com. These stats become more reliable each week as have real data points to reference instead of only a hybrid of data mixed with pre-season expectations.
Odell Beckham Jr. – WAS @ NYG ($8,400)
I’m worried about how many lineups I’ll be building this week. There are just so many intriguing plays this week, and the top of the wide receiver heap is loaded with fantasy goodness. The Giants are all but forcing the ball to Beckham Jr. and you need to scroll down a long ways at Pro Football Focus to find the top graded Washington cornerback (searching from the bottom up is much, much quicker). The Redskins rank dead-last in pass defense DVOA, and this game should stay close enough to keep Beckham Jr. in play for four quarters.
T.Y. Hilton – HOU @ IND ($8,000)
Six catches for 122 yards and 1.2 scores. That’s T.Y. Hilton’s career average game against the Texans, including Week 6’s 9/223/1 outburst that really catapulted Hilton’s season into gear. The Texans have been torched consistently by the opposition’s WR1 this season, and Hilton is coming off of a 19 target performance against one of the hottest cornerbacks in the league, Joe Haden. He’s a must-start in cash games, but just know that his ownership will be through the roof in GPP’s.
Other Options: As was the case last week, Calvin Johnson ($9,400) is an elite play, yet comes with an elite price tag. He was worth it last week and it’s very likely he will be again. You can construct a lineup this week with him in it and feel good about how it looks. Antonio Brown ($8,700) is matchup-proof and his price dropped $600 after hanging a 9/117/1 on Cincinnati. Hmm, ok. Wait and see on Julio Jones ($7,800) but the hip injury he sustained on Monday night might be enough to keep his ownership levels in check after destroying the Packers secondary in front of a national audience.
Mike Evans – TB @ CAR ($6,600)
Last week against Detroit, Josh McCown employed the Bears playbook from last season; Chuck and Duck. What took them so long? The big play ability is always appealing with Evans, he’s such a physical mismatch one on one, and it’ll continue to serve the Buccaneers well if they exploit it whenever possible. Evans lost the catch battle to his teammate Vincent Jackson (who’s a decent play this week as well) but the touchdowns continue to be there for Evans. It’s a random variation that’s difficult to put much stock in, but it makes Evans’ upside in a matchup against one of the worst secondary’s extremely appealing.
Jordan Matthews –DAL @ PHI ($5,600)
I really like Jeremy Maclin ($6,100) here as well, but I’ll take Matthews for $500 cheaper. Both players are discounted this week coming off of a difficult week against the Seahawks. Matthews fared well against this Cowboys secondary on Thanksgiving Day, and his chemistry with Mark Sanchez is undeniable. The 55 point O/U is the highest of the week, and is something that’s worth your attention. On the season, Dallas ranks 31st in DVOA against their opponents WR2.
Other Options: Kenny Stills ($5,700) will be an interesting case this week. He was touted so heavily last week and laid an egg in a plush matchup. I’ll be interested to see if the general public will bypass him in this spot, making him an intriguing GPP play against the Bears. In a similar sense, you wonder if the Cam Newton injury keeps Kelvin Benjamin ($6,200) under-owned. As was the case back in Week 1, Benjamin is likely to face the Buccaneers with Derek Anderson under center, and the two connected for 6/92/1 on opening day.
Charles Johnson – MIN @ DET ($5,000)
Charles Johnson is the Antonio Brown of WR3’s for me. I can’t stay away. This is a tougher matchup than Johnson faced last week against the Jets, but the usage is there to support playing him. As has been the case with most teams of late when facing Detroit, look for the Vikings to abandon any hope of a running game early, making this a prime spot for Johnson. Yes, the Lions defense has been a steady force this season, but they’re susceptible to plays in the passing game, and Johnson is clearly the top option on this Vikings team.
Marqise Lee– JAX @ BAL ($3,600)
I’d play Marqise Lee this week for $4,600, so $3,600 feels like a steal. I love this spot for the USC rookie. Jacksonville is a 14-point road dog, and the ground attack they showed in prior weeks has long since disappeared. The injuries in the Ravens secondary are so bad that my boy JuneBug from Saturday morning flag football is now playing corner for the Ravens. Ok, they haven’t actually called him yet, but he’s on the list that’s how depleted they are in the back half. The 41.8 aFPA that the Ravens have allowed to wide receivers in PPR scoring is the 4th highest total in the league, and Lee has solidified himself as Blake Bortles top option in Jacksonville.
If you find yourself in need of a minimum priced play this week you have a couple of options, but since Marqise Lee is so close to minimum I advise you stick with him. After a 0 catch performance, it’s hard to start Terrance Williams ($3,000) but the matchup against the Eagles is enticing. I’ve dogged Williams all season on The Football Fix podcast and begged listeners to sell high. He’s just so boom or bust, he’s hard to trust week in and week out. This is a perfect spot for him though, because he’s a lotto ticket every week. You can also deploy Brandon Marshall’s replacement, Marquess Wilson ($3,000) for minimum too. Like Williams, he’s also facing an exploitable defense as the porous Saints roll into Chicago on Monday night.