2014 Fantasy FootballFantasy Football

2014 Fantasy Football: Week 10 AFC Target Report

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Source: Alex Goodlett/Getty Images North America 

Welcome to the Week 10 AFC Target Report. For those unfamiliar with the format, five players will be examined based on their usage in the passing game and an attempt to describe what it means from a fantasy standpoint is the end goal. The first number in parentheses is the number of targets followed by the percentage of targets caught. Additionally, the targets for said player will be listed to the right on a week-by-week basis. Time to get the Week 10 AFC Targets Report started.

Percy Harvin – (54 targets/73.6 percent targets caught) 7-1-10-BYE-5-4-DNP-9-13-5

Since being traded from the Seattle Seahawks to the New York Jets a few weeks ago, Harvin has averaged nine targets per game after only averaging 5.4 targets per in five games with the Seahawks. The Jets have used him as the focal point of their offense and while he’s only had one good game since his arrival, it’s encouraging to see him receive more downfield passes and rushing attempts. Against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday, the enigmatic 26-year-old wide receiver posted a 3-23 line through the air and a 6-33 line on the ground. In eight games, Harvin has 39 receptions for 307 yards (7.9 YPC) and 22 rushes for 161 yards with a touchdown.

While Harvin has never been a prolific touchdown scorer in his career, it’s certainly surprising he’s yet to find pay dirt as a wide receiver this season and it’s severely limiting his fantasy upside. Additionally, his averages of 38.4 yards per game and 7.9 YPC are both easily career-low figures at the moment. His underwhelming box score totals so far has led to him being the 49th ranked wideout in PPR formats. This is certainly not what owners envisioned when drafting the talented wide receiver. While his rest of season value is on the rise due to the Jets implementing Michael Vick as the quarterback, he is best suited as a WR3 with WR2 upside. The Jets are on bye this week and will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 12.

A.J. Green – (41/56.1%) 9-0-9-BYE-7-DNP-DNP-DNP-6-10

If Harvin has been a headache for owners to own, then Green has been a migraine. After missing only one game in his first three NFL seasons, Green has missed three games this year and had to exit another one in the first quarter due to his lingering toe issue. While he’s managed to get through the last two games without emerging with any setbacks, Green still isn’t providing the fantasy production owners have grown accustomed with. While he saw a season-high 10 targets in the Cincinnati Bengals Week 10 showdown against the Cleveland Browns, Green only managed a 3-23 line. This was largely due to Andy Dalton having one of the worst efforts by a quarterback in recent memory in addition to a couple uncharacteristic drops. For the season, Green owns an underwhelming 23-381-3 line.

While he hasn’t produced up to expectations so far this year, the 26-year-old is a proven WR1 and remains an excellent buy-low option for the stretch run with trade deadlines rapidly approaching in many leagues. His 16.6 YPC would be a career-best mark and he also has two 100-yard performances in six games. As long as he remains healthy, Green has an excellent chance to get back on track with a soft schedule coming up (@NO, @HOU, @TAM, vs. PIT).

Steve Smith Sr. – (84/58.3%) 15-10-7-10-7-6-5-9-8-7

While Smith Sr. remains the WR12 overall in PPR formats due to his stellar early season production, his sub-par performances the last four weeks suggests his unimaginable start was a little fluky. “Smiff” has failed to clear 10+ PPR points in his last four games and five of the last six. With defenses understandably clamping down on the 35-year-old in addition to the reemergence of Torrey Smith, his value has been on the decline for quite some time. Against the Titans in Week 10, Smith managed a measly 3-17 line. After averaging 9.8 targets through the first five weeks, he’s only seen an an average of 7 targets the last five weeks. In reality, Smith’s value lies somewhere in between his scorching start and his recent ice cold play. It’s worth mentioning Smith has only managed to find the end zone once in his last six games. For now, treat him as a high-end WR3. The Ravens are on bye this week and will face the Saints in Week 12.

Torrey Smith – (56/48.2%) 7-3-8-3-8-5-5-2-7-8

While Smith Sr. has predictably faded since Week 4, the other Smith for the Ravens has busted out of his early slump. Smith has averaged 13.3 PPR points the last six weeks to go along with five touchdowns. Against the Titans last Sunday, Smith turned in a 5-75-1 line and tied a season-high with eight targets. Smith has yet to record a 100-yard game this year but he leads Ravens wide receivers with six touchdowns and is well on his way to breaking his career-high mark of eight touchdowns he set back in 2012. Even though Smith has been more boom than bust lately, he still remains the epitome of a boom-or-bust player due to his meager reception total (27) in addition to him only averaging 5.6 targets per week. It’s simply unrealistic to expect Smith to manage WR2 value this year due to his lack of targets and owners can deploy him as a WR3 when the Ravens come out of their Week 11 bye to face the Saints in Week 12.

Mychal Rivera – (52/66.7%) 5-7-4-4-BYE-3-1-9-11-8

After being a complete non-factor for fantasy purposes through the first seven weeks, Rivera has burst into fantasy relevance with his solid output the last three weeks. Rivera delivered in a big way for owners streaming him against the Broncos as the 24-year-old posted a 6-64-1 line. Over his last three games, the Tennessee product is averaging a sterling 19.2 PPR points as has recorded at least six catches in each outing to go with three touchdowns. While his sister Naya Rivera (Santana Lopez from Glee) may get all the attention from the male crowd, Rivera’s play the last few weeks has surely given owners proper time to bestow mancrush status on his fantasy services. The second-year tight end has averaged 9.3 targets the last three weeks and it’s obvious that he has become a favorite target of quarterback Derek Carr in the aerial attack.

While he won’t keep up this production, one could certainly do worse at the TE position based on how much of a crapshoot the position as a whole has been this year. Rivera and the Oakland Raiders face the San Diego Chargers in Week 11. Temper expectations as the Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL against tight ends.

Thanks for reading and be sure to comment below with any questions or remarks you have concerning the article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’m more than willing to answer any questions.

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