2014 Fantasy Football: Week 11 NFC Target Report
If you happened to miss the Week 11 AFC Targets Report published earlier today, check it out right here. For those unfamiliar with the formatting, five players will be examined from a fantasy standpoint with the end goal being to explain what recent production and targets mean for future fantasy value. The targets and percentage of targets caught are listed in parentheses to the right of each player. Additionally, the week-by-week target data is also included. Without further ado, the Week 11 NFC Targets Report is live.
Alshon Jeffery – (90 targets/61.1% targets caught) 6-6-13-7-7-7-7-8-BYE-12-17
Owners had to wait until Week 11 for a signature fantasy outing from Jeffery but his monstrous 11-135-1 line on 17 targets was well worth the wait. Currently, Jeffery is the WR13 in PPR leagues and should have no problem delivering WR1 value from here on out. Although he isn’t likely to match his lofty numbers from his outstanding sophomore season last year, Jeffery is still on a 88-1,218-6 pace. The presence of Brandon Marshall likely has something to do with it, but he’s been marred by ineffectiveness at times throughout the year to due to injuries so it’s been somewhat perplexing Jeffery hasn’t done more.
His yards per game average is down from (88.8 > 76.1) while his yards per reception average is as well (16.0 > 13.8). While many owners likely envisioned more from their early-round selection, knowing he is still basically providing WR1 value with some room to improve should give owners some peace of mind. Additionally, the 24-year-old from South Carolina has a lot of easy matchups in the upcoming weeks (TAM, @DET, DAL, NOR, DET, @MIN). Fire up Jeffery as a WR1 with confidence against the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary in Week 12.
Julio Jones – (105/63.8%) 9-13-11-8-16-12-8-6-BYE-11-11
Although his 105 targets are the third-most in the NFL, Jones hasn’t been efficient as others with less targets as he comes in as the WR10 overall in PPR leagues. He continued to disappoint in Week 11 as he only caught six passes for 59 yards. Shockingly, Jones has failed to catch a touchdown pass since Week 3. This would seem unfathomable for the uber-athletic 6’3/220 pound wideout who is a beast around the red zone, but it’s true. All this means is that touchdowns will likely be coming in bunches for the Alabama product in the coming weeks. Jones is still on a 107-1,459-5 pace and placing a bet on whether he ends up with more than five scores seems like easy money at this point.
Jones already has four 100-yard games this season and only needs two such more performances to set a career-high in that regard. Additionally, it’s been especially encouraging Jones has yet to miss a game this year due to foot issues which have plagued him throughout his brief career. While Jones has tough matchups the next two weeks (CLE, ARI), the four weeks after that present some cakewalk matchups (@GB, PIT, @NOR, CAR). If you can weather the storm the next two weeks or Jones surprises and outperforms expectations, owners are likely in store for a big finish. Joe Haden will likely shadow Jones in the Week 12 matchup on Sunday, so downgrade Jones to low-end WR1 status.
Vincent Jackson – (94/45.9%) 9-7-9-10-12-13-BYE-5-12-13-4
Oof. That about best sums it up when it comes to the actual fantasy production from V-Jax this year from the expected output. Jackson produced another putrid effort in Week 11 as he caught three balls for 43 yards on a season-low four targets. He hasn’t caught a touchdown since Week 4 and has taken a backseat to phenomenal rookie wideout Mike Evans of late. The 31-year-old out of Northern Colorado has always been known for being inconsistent but he’s really taken it to another level this year. No consistency at the quarterback position combined with the presence of a wide receiver as talented as Evans has undoubtedly hurt his production this year, but his current 69-898-3 pace would be awfully hard for owners to stomach.
His YPR (13.0) would be a career-low by 2.2 yards while his 56.1 Y/G would be his lowest rate since 2007 (excluding 2010 injury-shortened season). He only has one 100-yard effort in 2014 and unfortunately for V-Jax owners, there doesn’t appear to be much help on the way. His 94 targets are seventh-most in the NFL, but he’s only catching a measly 45.9% of his targets. Among players with at least 50 targets, his 45.9% targets caught is worse than everyone but Michael Floyd (45.6%) and Justin Hunter (42.6%). For the season, he is the WR39 in PPR formats. Yowza. Although he has a nice matchup against the pitiful Chicago Bears secondary in Week 12, continue to treat V-Jax as a high-upside WR3 until he proves otherwise.
Pierre Garcon – (64/67.2%) 12-4-16-6-3-6-6-4-5-BYE-2
It’s officially time to abandon ship for Garcon owners as his latest debacle of one catch for six yards in Week 11 should be the final nail in the coffin for his chances of supplying WR2/3 value in 2014. As of right now, the 28-year-old is the WR43 overall in PPR, an unimaginable scenario before the season considering his stellar season in 2013. He saw a season-low two targets and has failed to clear four receptions or 47 yards in each of his last three games. Operating as the No. 2 wideout behind DeSean Jackson, Garcon has struggled for consistency as he’s only averaging 6.4 weekly targets. In fact, since Week 3 Garcon is only averaging 4.6 targets. Considering his decreased usage in Washington’s aerial attack, Garcon will have a hard time “eating” the rest of the year.
Jay Gruden employs a pass-oriented offense that focuses on the vertical attack, which suits the strengths of D-Jax, not Garcon. With his role vastly different from the one he was accustomed to a year ago, it’s well past time for owners to downgrade expectations on his rest of season outlook. With another tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers on deck, Garcon is should be a benchwarmer or weak FLEX option for the majority of owners. There’s no upside here.
Marques Colston – (58/57.6%) 8-0-5-10-6-BYE-10-5-3-3-8
The next man up phrase is used quite often in the football world due to the litany of injuries which occur on a yearly basis and we have ourselves another example on the New Orleans Saints. Unfortunately, 21-year-old rookie wideout Brandin Cooks broke his thumb in Week 11 and will be out the rest of the season. According to ESPN Saints reporter Mike Triplett, grizzled veteran Marques Colston looks to be the player who will benefit the most from Cooks’ absence. It makes sense since Colston is a slot receiver so he’ll be in his comfort zone. Even with a larger role likely in store for Colston the ROS, it’s hard to be too bullish on his outlook considering his season to date. The 31-year-old has 34 receptions for 536 yards and one touchdown, leaving him on a ghastly 54-858-2 pace. If he were to finish at that pace, his touchdown total would be a career-low while the yardage and reception totals would be the second-lowest marks of his remarkably consistent career.
Colston has caught at least five touchdowns in each season of his eight-year career and it would be surprising if he doesn’t pick up the pace in that department as we enter the home stretch. Additionally, his 15.8 YPC would be the second-best mark of his carer. With this being said, owners shouldn’t be expecting any miracles from Colston as he’s failed to clear four receptions or 56 yards in each of the last four weeks. With an abundance of advantageous matchups on deck though (BAL, @PIT, CAR, @CHI, ATL, @TAM), Colston should be able to provide low-end WR3 value at worst.
Thanks for reading and be sure to comment below with any questions or remarks you have concerning the article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’m more than willing to answer any questions.