garcon land
Pierre Garcon
Source: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Below are the guys I like or dislike in Week 5 compared to the other experts on FantasyPros.com. I’m focusing on guys that are actually on that start/sit bubble in 12-team leagues. For quarterbacks and tight ends, that means I’m focusing on guys I have on one side of 12th at the position while the consensus is on the other side. For running backs and receivers that means guys I have on one side of 24th at the position while the consensus is on the other side. For example, there’s no need to tell you I’m higher on Alfred Morris when I have him ranked #7 and the expert consensus rank (ECR) has him ranked #15. Both rankings have him in the top 24 and tell you to start him.

If you have specific start/sit questions, leave them in the comments or hit me up on Twitter @TheRealTAL. Let’s change things up this week and start with the Sit ‘Ems.

Sit ‘Em

Justin Forsett / at Indianapolis / ECR: 22 / My rank: 27

This is admittedly a good matchup. Indy allows the second most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs according to 4for4.com. And for the record, 4for4.com’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric will be referred to as aFPA for the rest of this post. But back to Forsett. Despite it being a good matchup, the Baltimore backfield situation is too fluid to trust any of them. First of all, Lorenzo Taliaferro got seven more carries and three more touches than Forsett last week. And Taliaferro got the only two carries the Ravens had inside their opponent’s 5-yard line, one of which he scored on. Moreover, Bernard Pierce was active but held out of action last week as a precaution. If he’s good to go this week, that further muddies the waters. Stay away from these backs.

Ahmad Bradshaw / vs. Baltimore / ECR: 20 / My rank: 29

While Bradshaw’s defense is a good matchup for Forsett and Co., Forsett’s defense is not a good matchup for Bradshaw. The Ravens are second in aFPA and the sixth best run defense according to Football Outsiders. And Bradshaw is still splitting work Trent Richardson. Not just splitting, Richardson is averaging six more touches per game. That has limited Bradshaw to about 12 touches per game. It’s really tough to count on a guy only getting that much work in a tough matchup.

Ben Tate / at Tennessee / ECR: 24 / My rank: 44

Starting Tate seems insane. First of all, it’s hard to know whether his knee will allow him to carry a full workload his first week back. Second, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell have filled in more than adequately in Tate’s absence. Who knows how carries will be split after they’ve had the chance to prove their adequacy. And finally, this matchup may not be as good as it appears. The Titans have allowed the ninth most fantasy points per game to running backs, but they’re the eighth worst matchup for backs according to aFPA. If you own Tate, you should certainly hope he jumps right back into a lead back role, but you should wait to see it before you act as if it’s going to happen.

Roddy White / at New York Giants / ECR: 19 / My rank: 29

Once you get past the top 15 wide receivers, it gets really hard to differentiate the next 20 or so receivers. Matchup is the easiest thing to point to when trying to separate the second tier of receivers into starters and bench guys each week. And White’s matchup with New York this week isn’t a great one. The Giants are the eighth toughest matchup for receivers according to aFPA, and Football Outsiders ranks the Giants in the top ten at defending No 1. receivers, No. 2 receivers and slot receivers.

Jordan Cameron / at Tennessee / ECR: 8 / My rank: 14

Cameron averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game in the first four weeks of 2013, but fantasy owners may be remembering those performances too fondly. In the 13 games since then he is averaging just 5.7 fantasy points per game. That average makes him a borderline top 12 tight end, so he’ll still have some weeks where he’ll be startable, but those weeks are more infrequent than the unstartable weeks.

Start ‘Em

Mike Glennon / at New Orleans / ECR: 22 / My rank: 17

This obviously isn’t a situation where I have a player on the other side of the top 12 cut line, but there isn’t a quarterback I have ranked inside the top 12 that the other experts have outside the top 12 this week. With only Ryan Tannehill and whoever will start the next game for Oakland on bye, there’s really only one situation where you might need Glennon this week: If you own Tom Brady. In addition to Brady being useless so far this year with just one game with more than 10 fantasy points (13 in Week 3), he’s got a brutal matchup this week against Cincinnati. There may well be a better Brady-replacement on your waiver wire, Eli Manning in particular. But if Eli is owned, Glennon is available in virtually all leagues. He’s an adequate replacement for the week in a matchup with the Saints where he should have to throw quite a bit to keep up with the Saints.

Andre Williams / vs. Atlanta / ECR: 43 / My rank: 24

It’s understandable that most experts don’t want to rank a back up running back as a fantasy starter, but the Falcons have allowed multiple teams to have two top 24 running backs in the same week. In Week 2 Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill both finished as top 12 running backs against Atlanta. Last week Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon both finished as top 10 running backs. In Week 1 Mark Ingram was a top five back and two other New Orleans backs finished in the top 30 against Atlanta. The only rushing attack that Atlanta has held in check was a Doug Martin-less Tampa Bay team in Week 3. So there’s absolutely no reason to think the Giants can’t produce two start-worthy running backs this week. Williams will have to get enough carries, but he got 15 carries last week. And there have been reports that Williams might continue to get more work in order to get a fragile Rashad Jennings off a 300+ touch pace.

Bishop Sankey / vs. Cleveland / ECR: 27 / My rank: 23

After barely leading all Tennessee backs in touches in Week 3, Sankey out-touched Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster combined last week. And coach Ken Whisenhunt has come out this week and said that Sankey will see more reps this week and more earlier in the game. It’s a great game for Sankey to see his role increase as its a great matchup against Cleveland who allows the third most aFPA to running backs.

Pierre Garcon / vs. Seattle / ECR: 30 / My rank: 21

The complete no show for Garcon last week is concerning. The tough matchup with Seattle is concerning. The good news is that Garcon is tied for sixth among receivers in targets and is averaging 9.5 targets per game. As for the matchup, it may not be as bad for Garcon.

According to Football Outsiders, Seattle is the second worst in the league at defending a team’s second receiver. Assuming that’s because Sherman spends most of his time covering the opposition’s top receiver and assuming Clay’s assumption about Sherman covering Jackson is right, this may not be a bad matchup after all.

Garrett Graham / at Dallas / ECR: 18 / My rank: 12

In the first four weeks of the season the Cowboys have allowed two tight ends to finished second at the position in that week and another to finish sixth in the position. And in the other week they allowed two Rams tight ends to finish top 12 at the position. So in four games they have allowed five tight ends to finish in the top 12. Graham missed Week 1, but he’s the only Texans tight end to receive a target since his return, so if the Cowboys allow another top 12 tight end, it’s going to be Graham.

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6 Comments

  1. erik
    October 2, 2014 at 8:44 am

    Should I start frank gore or Fred Jackson

    • October 2, 2014 at 9:21 pm

      Jackson has a really tough matchup against Detroit. The Lions are one of the best rush defenses in the league, if not the best. I’d go with Gore.

  2. Neil
    October 2, 2014 at 9:36 am

    Interesting. I had Bradshaw slotted to flex over Garcon (.5 PPR), which goes directly against your view here.

    • October 2, 2014 at 9:22 pm

      Yeah, honestly neither are great options this week, but I don’t think the matchup is quite as bad as you might think for Garcon.

  3. gage
    October 4, 2014 at 3:50 pm

    Isaiah Crowell or Pierre Garcon for flex?

  4. Frank
    October 4, 2014 at 5:59 pm

    Can’t decide between Wheaton and Garcon. Also, between Kelce and Jordan Cameron.