2014 Fantasy FootballFantasy Football

2014 Fantasy Football: Week 6 AFC Target Report

Photo credit: Keith Allison
Photo credit: Keith Allison

For those of you who checked out the Week 5 AFC/NFC Target Reports published last week, the format will be slightly altered from the previous versions. Due to an editorial decision, rather than focusing on the targets for fantasy relevant players on team-to-team basis, the aim of this article is to now examine targets and production for five players to identify potential trends in usage. Below, the first number in parentheses will be the total number of targets for said player while the following number is the percentage of targets caught. Additionally, you’ll see the targets for each player from week-to-week to the right.

Without further ado, here is the Week 6 AFC Target Report.

Mohamed Sanu – (41 targets/67.5% targets caught) 5-4-8-BYE-9-15

With A.J. Green (toe) and Marvin Jones (foot) sidelined by injuries, Sanu has become the de facto number one receiver for Andy Dalton, and he was peppered with 15 targets. Sanu turned the 15 targets into a 10-120-1 line against the Carolina Panthers. Sanu has another favorable matchup against the Indianapolis Colts this week, and with only mediocre talents like Dane Sanzenbacher, Jermaine Gresham, and Brandon Tate to contend with for targets among the wide receiver corps, he can be treated as a WR2 until Green returns.

The 25-year-old Rutgers alum has posted a 27-354-3 line to go along with a passing touchdown to boot, and there’s no questioning that he’s been a pleasant surprise this year. Sanu is currently on pace for 86-1,132-9. Yowzas. More good news for Sanu owners is that Green is no sure thing to play in every game the rest of the way even when he returns as his toe injury will undoubtedly linger for the rest of the year. It’s already forced him to miss two games and likely a third in Week 7. Additionally, Jones was placed on injured reserve yesterday so owners should have nary a worry about him stealing Sanu’s job anymore. Fire up Sanu as a starter in your lineup and don’t look back.

Torrey Smith – (34/44.1%) 7-3-8-3-8-5

In the week leading up to their game in Week 6, Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh made it known they wanted to get struggling wideout Torrey Smith going. Although the target count wasn’t overwhelming, Smith managed to have his most productive outing to date (4-51-2). Seeing that he only had five targets, he sure made them count. According to FantasyPros, Torrey Smith had a 52 ADP and by any measure has been a monumental bust this year as he’s only recorded 15 catches for 227 yards and three touchdowns. That makes him the 55th best wideout in PPR leagues. Ouch.

Smith has yet to catch more than four balls in a game and until he starts receiving 7-10 targets on a weekly basis, it’s going to be hard to trust him as anything more than a low-end WR3. Smith is currently averaging 5.6 targets a game. I do expect him to get better as the season wears on though, and he has WR2 upside if the stars align right. As of now though he’s the number two option behind Steve Smith Sr., and he will continue to be an inconsistent option. He’s a better play in standard formats.

Andre Johnson – (54/63%) 9-7-11-7-8-12

Johnson awoke from his long slumber and owners can collectively breathe a sigh of relief. Johnson dusted the Colts secondary to the tune of a 7-99-1 line. That’s not a misprint, Johnson caught his first touchdown of the season. In fact, it was the first touchdown reception for “The Natural” in his last 77 catches and 12 games, both career-high droughts. He is still on pace for 91 receptions, 1,117 yards, and is averaging 5.7 catches a game. Johnson is also seeing nine targets a game, and with that kind of workload he’ll continue to be consistent option in PPR formats. One could do worse for a WR2 with WR1 upside.

While AJ has yet to have a 100-yard game and has only one touchdown, expects those to come shortly. Excluding his 2005 season that was cut short due to injury and his injuries in the 2007/2011 seasons that forced him to miss seven and nine games respectively, Johnson has managed to post at least three 100+ yard performances and 4+ touchdowns in every season. Contrary to what some may think, Johnson is still the top wideout ahead of DeAndre Hopkins for the Texans so owners shouldn’t fret too much about his presence. The Texans commitment to Arian Foster and the run game combined with Ryan Fitzpatrick not being any good is currently limiting Johnson’s upside, and we’ll see if that changes as the season progresses.

Andre Holmes – (29/51.7%) 0-7-2-12-BYE-8

In a shocking twist for the dysfunctional Oakland Raiders organization, they made a smart move by unleashing their most talented wideout in Andre Holmes and he immediately paid major dividends by posting a 4-121-2 line against the San Diego Chargers. He scored on a bomb from 77 yards out and his other one was a six-yard touchdown. There’s still room aboard the bandwagon before it fills up, come along for the ride before it’s too late. The most encouraging aspect of his recent outings is that his 20 targets lead the Raiders over the last two games. Usually when you have a talented player with plenty of volume to work with, production will follow. Holmes also led Raiders wide receivers in snaps in Week 6, further cementing his status as the wideout to own in Oakland.

The 26-year-old is averaging a sterling 17.9 yards per reception and with Derek Carr looking like a competent quarterback for the Raiders, something that hasn’t been said in years, Holmes’ outlook for the rest of the season looks bright. As long as he sees 7-10 targets weekly and remains the primary read for Carr in the passing game, owners should treat him as a WR3. With that being said, expect some rough patches from him as he still has to contend with James Jones for targets and the Raiders offense is below-average unit as a whole.

T.Y. Hilton – (59/67.8%) 11-11-6-10-12-9

You know the T.Y. in T.Y. Hilton stands for “Thank You”, right? That’s what fantasy owners of Hilton are saying week in and week out based on his output this year. The electrifying 24-year-old had his best career game in Week 6 as he posted a 9-223-1 line against the Houston Texans. The touchdown reception was his first of the year. As foolish as it may sound, fantasy owners may have been expecting more after he started off hot by catching five passes for 147 yards in the first quarter. Even with only one score, Hilton has been the Colts best receiver by far and has been one of the top wideouts in the NFL. Hilton has posted a 40-604-1 line with two 100+ yard efforts while averaging 100.7 yards per game and 15.1 yards per reception.

The Florida International alum is breaking out in his third NFL season and with a top-5 quarterback in Andrew Luck delivering him passes, he oozes upside. He is the fifth ranked WR in PPR formats and has certainly provided owners a tidy profit from draft day. His 59 targets on the year rank as sixth best in the NFL, and with an average of 9.8 a game, Hilton is at worst a surefire WR2 in PPR formats. Considering Hilton is on pace for 107-1,611-3 though, it’s about time to move Hilton into the WR1 stratosphere.

Thanks for reading and be sure to leave your remarks, questions, or corrections in the comments section below. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy.

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