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2015 Daily Fantasy Football Strategy: Week 5 Tight Ends

It is on to Week 5 of the NFL and Daily Fantasy Football at DraftKings. I’m back to provide recommendations for Tight Ends for your weekly lineup. This week is the perfect week to take a dip into the Daily Fantasy pool as you can win $1,200,000! Daily Fantasy can help you with lineup decision for your season-long league and give you another team to root on during the weekend.

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DraftKings Tight End Recommendations

If you’ve never played on DraftKings before, you can get a deposit bonus by signing up. And there are different options to pick from at DraftKings for any skill level.

Four teams are on bye this week including another one of the stud TEs. We get another test of our “play the TE against the Raiders.” And maybe Gary Barnidge’s work against the Raiders was the start of a break out at the tender age of 30.

Finally, a gentle reminder on the scoring for Tight Ends – this is a PPR site so remember that when selecting players. The full for scoring for Tight Ends is at the end of this column.

Tight Ends can also be used in the flex position at DraftKings. However, with the entire world of RBs and WRs at your disposal Rob Gronkowski is probably the only TE you’d consider as a flex option. TEs still make a viable option at the flex spot as long as the pricing continues to be soft.

Let’s take a look at a couple of options at each price point. For those who are new to the column, I’ll generally look at a couple of options in each pricing tier broken out based on the socioeconomic status of 1970s sitcom families. And I’ll always cover Rob Gronkowski.

I’ll mention Football Outsiders a lot over the season – the passes per game and yards per game stats I use are from Football Outsiders. Here is the link to Football Outsiders’ 2013 stats. FO stats for 2014 are here and I like to use the defense versus types of receivers to fill out my rosters. And we now have 2015 stats located here – now with receiver types!

Gronk’s back and at $7,500 no less so we have a $5,000 spread from the top to the bottom.

Teams on bye: Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings and New York Jets. So, we lose Greg Olsen which is a big blow, Jordan Cameron and Kyle Rudolph which hurts a bit and the Jets TE whoever that may be.

Over/Under

We’ve added a new feature this year highlighting the top totals (over/under) in Vegas for the week.

The top over/under totals for Week 5 (according to Vegas Insider consensus):

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (o/u 49.5 points)
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (o/u 49 points)
Washington at Atlanta Falcons (o/u 48 points)

And nothing else higher than 46 points.

The Gronk Tier

Rob Gronkowski | Patriots | $7,500 – Welcome back big guy! On bye. Hurry back Gronk! He’s averaged just over 25 points in the three games he’s played this year. But, his point total has dropped each week. Dallas is actually pretty good against TEs, except they haven’t really played any TEs yet (Daniel Fells/Larry Donnell, Zach Ertz, Levine Toilolo, and Josh Hill/Ben Watson. And they may be without stud LB Sean Lee this week. He’s probably a guaranteed 20 points just about every week.

The Jeffersons

Jimmy Graham | Seahawks | $6,100 – There just isn’t any reason to trust Graham right now. The Seahawks looked to be in disarray on offense last week. They haven’t figured out a way to use Graham and I don’t trust they will in the near term.

Travis Kelce | $5,200 | Chiefs – Perhaps I was a bit incorrect about Maclin’s effect on Kelce. We knew the matchup wasn’t great last week and Kelce still got seven targets. But he didn’t produce and bumps up against a Bears defense that has been tough TEs so far this year. They’ve given up under six passes per game to TEs and just over 40 yards per game. Jimmy Graham did put up a seven catch, 83 yard performance with a TD in Week 3 so the Bears can be had.

Martellus Bennett | $5,000 | Bears – Phew. This is some rarified air for Mr. Bennett. He jumped $500 on the strength of his work against the Raiders. I’m going to generally fade TEs off of Raiders’ matchups (though it didn’t work last week with Gary Barnidge) as their salary jumps too much based on the past week’s performance. Moreover, his matchup is pretty tough against the Chiefs who haven’t given up more than three receptions to a TE this year.

All in the Family

Tyler Eifert | Bengals | $4,600 – Do you remember that time? In Week 1? When you scored all those points? Sure. That was awesome.

Jason Witten | Cowboys | $4,500 – Witten is one of the Cowboys’ healthiest offensive players at the moment. With the loss of Lance Dunbar, Witten could see a few more targets. His matchup against the Patriots will probably mean a lot of throwing. And the Pats have given up 9.3 passes per game (fifth highest total in the NFL) to TEs and a TD in two of the three games.

Julius Thomas | Jaguars | $4,500 – He’s still a week away.

Antonio Gates | Chargers | $4,200 – He’s back off his four game suspension for PEDs. The Chargers get a Steelers team that gave up three TDs to Gronk in Week 1, but has been stingy since. It’s unclear how the targets will shake out between Gates and Ladarius Green ($3,200) so I’ll stay away. Now, if Stevie Johnson and Malcolm Floyd miss this week then both could come into play. We’d like Green (as he’s so much cheaper) in that scenario.

Charles Clay | Bills | $4,100 – Clay is in off back to back 19+ point games including his best game of the year last week. The Bills offense is a bit of disarray as LeSean McCoy and Karlos Willams are likely out along with Sammy Watkins. Clay is a rock in the passing game and his matchup with the Titans is good. Tennessee was lit up by ASJ in Week 1 and gave up seven catches and 83 yards to the Colts’ TE’s in Week 3. Clay makes an excellent choice in the mid-tier.

Good Times

Delanie Walker | $3,800 – The matchup for Walker against the Bills looks great until you recall that the Bills’ stats are skewed by the Week 2 matchup with Gronk. It’s a thin week at TE so Walker should be in the top 10 and at this price point, he’s an option.

Eric Ebron | $3,700 | Lions – Ebron is out for three weeks. The hope is that Brandon Pettigrew ($2,500) is back from injury. Tim Wright ($2,500) will probably see some targets as well. Neither are great options.

Heath Miller | $3,300 | Steelers – I have difficulty trusting Miller with Michael Vick at QB. They are going to lean on Le’Veon Bell as much as possible. Plus, Martavis Bryant returns this week sucking up a couple of more targets of the few that Vick will offer.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins | $3,600 | Buccaneers – Still out with an injury.

Vernon Davis | $3,000 | 49ers – Davis’ matchup with the Giants is great, but unfortunately he is not. And there is a chance he doesn’t play which would put Garrett Celek ($2,500) in the driver’s seat for targets.

Sanford and Son

As we strive to give you more and more each week, we’ve added a new tier. The Sanford & Son tier. If you want to go dumpster diving hoping to find that gem, let Sanford & Son be your guide. You hear that Elizabeth? I’m coming to join ya!

Owen Daniels | Broncos | $2,700– As I said, we have real test of our “play every TE against the Raiders” scheme. He hasn’t had more than 28 yards receiving in any game this year. He does have two TDs to his name, but he’s not exactly the first or second choice in that lineup. But, the Raiders haven’t given up fewer than five catches to a TE in a game and every TE has scored a TD against them. The Raiders haven’t given up fewer than 25 points to a TE this year.

Derek Carrier | Washington | $2,500– Jordan Reed ($4,500) suffered a concussion along with spraining his knee and ankle. I can’t see any way he plays Sunday. Carrier should be the next man up and he inherits an important role in the Washington offense. Jordan Reed averaged 8.5 targets through the first four games so the chances will be there for Carrier.

And that’s it. I’m probably paying up for Gronk, or slumming it here with Daniels or Carrier. Jason Witten is probably my favorite mid-tier option though Charles Clay is right behind him.

Thursday Game – Indianapolis Colts at the Houston Texans

I’ll make this pretty short. The Colts are going to get Dwayne Allen ($2,900) back which renders both he and Coby Fleener ($3,200) useless. Or at least too tough to call which of the two will get the targets. And with the issues at QB for the Colts, I’d rather stay away.

As for the Texans, they will be without Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington, there should be some targets available. Which is great, until you realize that the TEs for the Texans are C.J. Fiedorowicz, Garrett Graham and Jack Doyle – all at $2,500. Fiedorowicz is probably the best option, but he’s not much of one.

Good luck in Week 5!

DraftKings Tight End Scoring

10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
Reception = +1PT
Receiving TD = +6PTs
100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
Fumble Lost = -1PT
2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs
Offensive Fumble Recovery TD = +6PTs

The full DraftKings scoring system is here.

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