2015 Daily Fantasy Football Strategy: Week 7 Wide Receivers
Welcome to Wide Receiver Wednesday at the Daily Fix! Each Wednesday of the NFL regular season I’ll provide you with several receiving options that are strong plays that week at DraftKings. Monday through Friday the Fix writers will provide you with a Daily Fix that covers each position, with a weekly roundup by Brett on Thursday or Friday. Any questions? Find me on Twitter, @RyNoonan.
The Wide Receiver position is loaded with options in this new, ever-prolific passing era of the NFL, so options abound. I’ll break it up into tiers, essentially, WR1’s, 2’s, 3’s and FLEX/deep options. We won’t get too legalistic on the tiers. The goal is to highlight players in each pricing tier, highlighting the plays and matchups in each spot.
Your WR1 and WR2’s are no-brainer starts in your normal season-long fantasy leagues. I’ll highlight them if they have an exceptional matchup or price. We’re likely going to find some inexpensive plays here week in a week out as well, due to the depth at the position. When applicable, I’ll note if the player is more of a cash game play versus a tournament option. Cash games (where roughly 40-50% of the player pool wins money) and the players that you want to use in those contests can vary drastically from a tournament option (tournaments or GPP’s where 10-15% of the pool wins money).
Scoring and other settings can be found here.
DeAndre Hopkins – HOU @ MIA ($8,600)
Despite seeing his price rise $900 this week, DeAndre Hopkins is still the top play this week. He’s just impossible to move off of right now. Miami doesn’t have anyone that can shut him down, and after last week’s fourth quarter explosion WHILE HOUSTON WAS LEADING, he’s virtually game script proof as well. The Texans are four point road dogs here, and Miami enters play ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average) metric against WR1’s.
Julio Jones – ATL @ TEN ($9,100)
It’s difficult to spend up on Julio Jones when you can grab Hopkins for $500 less, but some times spending up at a position is a contrarian play for tournaments, and that applies here. For cash games I’ll be fine with Hopkins, but Julio is still the top priced option for a reason. Despite having a fairly putrid secondary, the Titans are playing well on the back end right now and have limited the damage by WR1’s this season. Perhaps it’s part of their game plan, but I expect Jones will still get his in Tennessee.
We have the first inter-divisional rematches of the season this week, as Dallas and New York do battle again after meeting in Week 1. The Cowboys managed to keep Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,700) pretty quiet, limiting him to just five catches and 44 yards. They’ll likely play him the same way, which doesn’t assure that they’ll have the same success, but with OBJ being less than 100% he’s easy to fade this week.
Another rematch takes place in the NFC Central, with Calvin Johnson ($7,700) squared up with Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings. Johnson had a strong Week 2 against Rhodes, hauling in 10 balls for 83 yards and a score. Xavier Rhodes has had an up and down 2015 season, but he’s clearly Minnesota’s top cover corner, so expect more of the same for Megatron this week.
Julian Edelman ($8,200) sees so much volume that he’s essentially always in play, but this week should be more difficult than most. He’s likely to have former teammate Darrell Revis shadowing him around the field on Sunday, which is enough reason to expect Edelman’s upside to be limited in comparison to most other weeks.
Larry Fitzgerald – AZ vs. BAL ($7,400)
Again, don’t get caught up in my arbitrary WR1/WR2 ranks here. If you have Larry Fitzgerald as your top/most expensive wide receiver this week, you’ll be just fine. The Ravens’ secondary is absolutely atrocious and will have their hands full with the Cardinals passing game. The Cardinals push the ball down the field vertically more than any other team in the league and despite doing most of his damage out of the slot, Fitzgerald is catching 80% of his targets and has a solid average depth of target (aDOT) of 10.5 yards, more than any other slot receiver. I feel like John Brown ($5,500) is in play too, but I like the safety and touchdown upside of Fitzgerald.
T.Y. Hilton–IND vs. NO ($6,500)
There are a few positives at play here for T.Y. Hilton. First, his salary has dropped $1,100 from his Week 1 price and that alone is an indicator of value. His 9.8 targets per game are strong for a player who’s general perceived to be a big-play-high-variance option, and he’s facing a Saints defense that’s ranked dead last in pass DVOA so far in 2015. It’s important to understand that these defensive-adjusted rankings are more accurate as each week passes, and after having six weeks worth of data, their completely actionable at this point. I think Hilton will be off of most people’s radar when you consider the options above and below him.
Jarvis Landry–MIA vs. HOU ($6,200)
I feel like I write up Jarvis Landry (and Allen Robinson) every week. Perhaps that’s because I do. They just have such high floors, Landry in particular. His 6.1 aDOT and 10.2 targets per game make him extremely safe in DraftKings full PPR scoring system, and his run after the catch skills (and return skills) help raise his floor. He has a quiet Week 6 as Miami jumped ahead big in the second half, but don’t let that fool you.
I don’t love Brandin Cooks ($5,500) but he’s so cheap and I like this spot for the Saints offense. Indianapolis is just 26th in pass DVOA and stud corner back Vontae Davis hasn’t been shadowing the oppositions top receiver lately so I’m not concerned that he’ll be an issue for Cooks. It’s a tournament only play, but a Brees/Cooks stack won’t be popular yet still has a ton of upside.
It’s time for Allen Robinson‘s ($6,400) weekly appearence. He jumped in price a bit, but he’s still in play. He’s getting 10 targets per game this season and with the Jaguars often playing from behind, that makes Robinson appealing more times than not. Buffalo’s outside corners have been strong this season, but not enough to keep me completely off of A-Rob.
Michael Crabtree – OAK @ SD ($4,300)
I like Michael Crabtree so much this week I nearly made him the ‘coverboy’ for the piece. Safe to say that DeAndre Hopkins has earned it, but you get the point. For as well as Amari Cooper has played this season, Crabtree has been even better. He’s being used to stretch the field too, with an aDOT nearly double that of Cooper (11.5 to 6.6), which increases his big-play chances in the passing game. Oakland’s coaching staff was talking Crabtree up during their bye week, saying that they want to continue to grow his role in the offense. I don’t know what that looks like since he already has more targets than Cooper (46 to 41), but it sounds promising. He’s likely to square off with Brandon Flowers, who has a coverage grade of -10 through six weeks according to Pro Football Focus.
Stefon Diggs – MIN @ DET ($4,200)
After another strong week, Stefon Diggs will likely be quite a bit more popular than he’s been over the Vikings past two contests. If Charles Johnson sits this one out again, don’t let Diggs’ perceived ownership number drive you away, this kid can play. He was on the field for 81% of Minnesota’s Week 6 plays against Kansas City and he hauling in seven balls on nine targets for 129 yards after his 6/87 performance the week prior. Detroit is 29th in pass DVOA so if Johnson sits, get some Diggs, ya dig?
Ted Ginn Jr. – CAR vs. PHI ($3,300)
With some strong values above you may not need to ‘punt’ to this level of salary but if you do I think Ted Ginn Jr. is viable in this spot. He’s just $300 more than the minimum and will be playing up in pace against the Eagles secondary. I don’t love him as a stand alone value, but I think Cam/Greg Olson stacks could be popular, and this is a way to get exposure to Carolina without following the masses.