2015 Fantasy FootballFantasy FootballRyan Noonan

2015 Fantasy Football Daily Fix: Week 3 Wide Recievers

Welcome to Wide Receiver Wednesday at the Daily Fix! Each Wednesday of the NFL regular season I’ll provide you with several receiving options that are strong plays that week at DraftKings. Monday through Friday the Fix writers will provide you with a Daily Fix that covers each position, with a weekly roundup on Friday. Hit me up on Twitter, @RyNoonan.

The Wide Receiver position is loaded with options in this new, ever-prolific passing era of the NFL, so options abound. I’ll break it up into tiers, essentially, WR1’s, 2’s, 3’s and FLEX/deep options. We won’t get too legalistic on the tiers. The goal is to highlight players in each pricing tier, highlighting the plays and matchups in each spot.

Your WR1 and WR2’s are no-brainer starts in your normal season-long fantasy leagues. I’ll highlight them if they have an exceptional matchup or price. We’re likely going to find some inexpensive plays here week in a week out as well, due to the depth at the position. When applicable, I’ll note if the player is more of a cash game play versus a tournament option. Cash games (where roughly 40-50% of the player pool wins money) and the players that you want to use in those contests can vary drastically from a tournament option (tournaments or GPP’s where 10-15% of the pool wins money).

Scoring and other settings can be found here.


Antonio Brown – PIT @ STL ($8,900)

Ok, so I don’t want to be lazy, I take my job seriously, but what really needs to be said here? When you’re building a cash game lineup you start with Antonio Brown and you figure out the rest. (Disclaimer: this is how I opened last week’s article as well.) Really, don’t over-think this in cash, just lock him in. His game logs are a joke. He’s functional regardless of game script because they run so many quick hits at the line to him he’s essentially an extension of their running game. His 13.2 aDOT, or average depth of target, is still strong enough to make him a tournament option since he’s their best deep threat with Martavis Bryant sidelined for one more game. St. Louis isn’t likely to use Trumaine Johnson or Jenoris Jenkins in a shadow-type role against Brown, but both have graded out well through the first two weeks. Antonio Brown can change those grades REAL quick. He’s averaging 0.94 PPR points per opportunity (carries + routes) this season, the most of any wideout with more than 10 targets.

Odell Beckham Jr. – NYG vs. WAS ($9,000)

I really like this spot for Odell Beckham Jr., but I’m torn because I love to play in Thursday contests and fade the game. I used this strategy in baseball this season for day games, and had great success in doing so. Everyone wants to watch their guys play, so Island Games (primetime, when nothing else is on) typically see inflated ownership totals. I scooped up a bunch of head-to-heads last Thursday and saw the likes of Owen Daniels, Albert Wilson, Alex Smith and multiple teams rostering Knile Davis. Perhaps I stumbled in to some lucky ones, but it gives you a feel for how that game is perceived by the masses. Washington is strong against the run, so I really like Manning/OBJ stacks here, but I plan on limiting my exposure.

The Falcons are doing whatever they need to do to get the ball in Julio Jones ($9,000) hands. That’s smart. Jones has an aDOT of just 7.7 so far, a really low number for a top-5 WR. It’s not a problem for Julio though. He’s taking quick screens and slant off the line and breaking them for big gains time and time again. I like Brown a lot more for $100 cheap though because Dallas will try and play down in pace, limiting the amount of snaps/routes run for Julio. I’ll still have a few shares though in tournaments.

We’ve seen Demaryius Thomas‘ ($8,000) price drop $1,100 since Week 1. That’s a huge dip for one of the game’s best wide receivers, one that’s played pretty well in the first two weeks. He’ll likely see both Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis, two solid corners but nothing that’ll force me off of Thomas. Detroit forces you to throw on them, and targeting top level talent at a depressed price is extremely +EV.


Brandon Marshall – NYJ vs. PHI ($6,200)

There is so much fantasy goodness lined up for Brandon Marshall this week. First is the matchup against Philadelphia, who enters play ranked 31st in Football Outsider’s pass DVOA (defensive-adjust value over average) metric against a team’s WR1. The root cause of this is Byron Maxwell, who’s graded out as one of the league’s worst corners through the first two weeks. He’s much better at jamming a WR with safety help then chasing around a guy one on one. Playing up in pace will help Marshall, who may see a few more targets if Eric Decker is unable to suit up for this one.

Julian Edelman – NE vs. JAX ($7,000)

Through two weeks Julian Edelman leads the NFL in targets with 31. He’s a machine. It helps that New England is throwing the ball on 70% of their snaps, tied for the fourth highest mark in the game despite leading early and often in their first two games. The peddle-to-the-medal mentality makes me feel better about Edelman in a spot where he and the Patriots are 14-point favorites, something that typically lends itself to heavy running back usage. I don’t think they’ll maintain that 70% pace here, but Edelman will be a huge focus in helping them build a lead.

DeAndre Hopkins – HOU vs. TB ($7,400)

I like to attack bad players. I know, what a crazy idea. It worked last week when I mentioned here that I like Torrey Smith against the Steelers, primarily because he’d be facing off against Cortez Allen a lot in coverage. Smith went for 120 and a score. This week I want to target the Buccaneers’ cornerbacks, even in what projects to be a low scoring game (40.5). With Arian Foster still likely on the shelf here, Hopkins is the primo offensive option in Houston, and neither Alterraun Verner or Johnathan Banks matchup up well against the dynamic Hopkins. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in pass DVOA against WR1’s and 32nd against WR2’s making both Hopkins and Cecil Shorts ($3,500) viable options.

Anyone that used Mike Evans ($6,600) will likely stay away from him this week. A zero is a difficult pill to swallow, especially when it costs you $7,400. With a bit of game action under his belt, Evans presents a strong value at his $6,600 price point. He’ll likely see a bunch of Jonathan Joseph in coverage, and Joseph has struggled mightily through the first two weeks.

Jarvis Landry‘s ($6,400) price is climbing, but he’s still a viable cash game play against Buffalo. Miami is also throwing it a ton (70%), and will likely struggle to move the ball on the ground against Buffalo. Landry’s 5.4 aDOT minimizes his upside, but he’s being targeted a ton and catching 80% of those targets so far this season.


Allen Robinson – JAX @NE ($5,200)

I had a really strong Week 2 but one thing that I regret is not having enough Allen Robinson, even after I wrote him up in this very spot last week. As a 14-point road dog in New England, the expected game script sets up very favorably for A-Rob. He leads all receivers with 8 targets of 20 yards or more, validating his 19.1 aDOT through the first two weeks. He’s really just too talented to be $5,200. As the best option on the Jaguars, it’ll be interesting to see how New England defends him and how much attention he draws from the defense.

Donte Moncrief – IND @ TEN ($5,100)

There hasn’t been a lot to be happy about for Indianapolis through the first two games, but the play of Donte Moncrief has to be considered a win. He’s hauled in 13 of his 19 targets so far, with a 0.56 PPO, a mark that’s higher than OBJ, Randall Cobb and DeAndre Hopkins. He’s played on 76% of Indy’s snaps so far this season, the same rates as both Andre Johnson (possibly dead?) and T.Y. Hilton (definitely hurt). This feels like a good bounce back spot for the Colts against the Titans porous secondary.

James Jones – GB vs. KC ($4,900)

James Jones is strictly a tournament play, but he’s a good one. Despite playing on 95% of Green Bay’s snaps this season, Jones has only been targeted six times this season. The good news is he’s caught five of those targets, three of them for scores. That’s…not sustainable. Here’s the good news though; Jones is typically flanked out to the left and faces the opposition’s RCB the majority of the time. Kansas City’s Jamell Fleming lines up as the RCB on 96% of his snaps, and his -8 coverage grade from PFF through Week 2 is by far the worst in the league.

Kendall Wright – TEN vs. IND ($5,000)

Kendall Wright‘s viability this week is solely dependent on the status of Indy’s All-Pro cornerback Vonte Davis. If Davis suites up for this one, he’s likely to chase Wright to the slot and make things very difficult for the Titans passing game. If he’s out, Wright will feast on Jalil Brown, who covers the slot more than any other Colts defensive back and has a -4 coverage grade from PFF. He’s the reason that Eric Decker dominated Monday night before his injury.


Michael Crabtree – OAK @ CLE ($4,600)

Michael Crabtree has always been more of the low aDOT-shore-handed style of receiver, but Oakland is using him differently so far. His 11.6 aDOT is more than twice that of Amari Cooper‘s (5.6) and his 23 targets lead the team. It helps that Oakland has one of the highest passing percentages in the league (72%), and Crabtree will be able to work on both Tremon and K’Wuan Williams.

Tyler Lockett – SEA vs. CHI ($3,400)

Poor Bears fans. After a strong first two games of his career, Chicago fans thought they had a steal in first round pick Kyle Fuller. The reality is far, far different from that first impression. Fuller finished last season as PFF’s third worst cornerback, 121st out of 123. Woof. He’s up to the same tricks so far this season, with a -5 grade through Week 2. He works primarily on the left side, and Tyler Lockett is leading the Seahawks in snaps from that position. He’s also a strong correlation play as a kick returner when paired with Seattle’s D/ST.

Previous post

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: September 23, 2015

Next post

Fantasy Baseball Final: September 23, 2015