2015 Daily Fantasy Football Strategy: Week 4 Quarterbacks
Hopefully everyone had a better three than I did! But hey, let’s forget about that and move on to bigger and better things… week four football! Good luck to everyone this weekend, I hope you all have a nice payday.
Tier 1 – Elite
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, $7,900 – Another week, another favorable matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The best way to justify starting Aaron Rodgers this week is to remind yourself, he’s Aaron Rodgers. He’s going up against one of the worst secondaries in the league in the 49ers, which makes this a no-brainer heading into the weekend. Honestly, the only bad thing you can say about this matchup for Rodgers and the Packers is that it’s on the road, though that shouldn’t make too much of a difference for the Pack. Keep this in mind when deciding whom you want as your QB,; Rodgers worst game this year is 10% better than Andrew Luck’s best game this year. Choose wisely.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts, $7,800 – There is no doubt that Luck has underperformed so far this season, leaving fantasy owners and DFS players frustrated given the stock that is put into Luck. That being said, Luck is going up against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend, a team he has had plenty of success against so far in his career as he looks to bring the Colts’ record back up to .500. Heading into this weekend, the Jags have given up the tenth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, which makes Luck a pretty easy play. Week three last year, Luck destroyed the Jaguars in Jacksonville, throwing for 370 and four touchdowns. Expect Luck to regain form against the division rival Jags this weekend.
Tier 2 – Value
Eli Manning, New York Giants, $7,000 – Eli and the Giants are going up against a very good Buffalo Bills defense this weekend, but I still like Eli enough to give him the nod for this weekend’s contests. The price tag is surprisingly a little high for Manning given the matchup, but it’s likely that he won’t be highly owned in tournament games. The Bills shut down Andrew Luck when they faced the Colts, but Tom Brady exploded against the defense in week two, throwing for 466 passing yards and three touchdowns. Eli isn’t Tom Brady, obviously, but he does have enough weapons to make for an interesting play, even with Victor Cruz suffering a setback in his recovery. I’m not exactly rushing to my laptop to start Eli this weekend, but if you’re looking to spend a little less on the position rather than to target the high-priced guys, Eli is worth at least taking a look at.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, $6,900 – I actually prefer Matt Ryan to Eli Manning this weekend, which is interesting given the fact that he cots $100 less than Eli. Ryan is going up against the Houston Texans and arguably the best player in the sport, J.J. Watt. However, the Texans somewhat surprisingly rank 29th against quarterbacks, which makes Ryan a solid play this week. It’s pretty easy to target the guy who gets to throw to Julio Jones every week, though Jones is priced at $9,300 this week, something I’m going to have to avoid in my lineup. Matty Ice kicks butt at home, so it won’t be surprising to see him try and take advantage of the Texans’ D and consistent air it out.
Tier 3 – Contrarian
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers, $5,500 – No, I’m not completely crazy for thinking there is some hidden value here in drafting Kaepernick for almost next to nothing…. Just hear me out for a minute. Yes, I watched last week’s game against the Arizona Cardinals and saw Kaepernick get embarrassed to the tune of four interceptions while collecting just 67 passing yards in the game. I am aware of all this; that is why Kaepernick has the price tag next to him that he does. HOWEVER, Kaepernick is going up against the Green Bay Packers this weekend at home, a team he has had success against in the past. This your typical low risk, low reward scenario here, as I’m sure you don’t want Kaep to be your starter going in some big money contests. Let’s not forget, though, that Kaepernick threw for a career-high 412 yards against this Packers team back in 2013, and it’s not like the Pack has a shutdown defense right now. There’s a very good chance that Kaep will likely be playing catch up the entire game, so there’s going to be plenty of garbage time for him to throw the ball downfield to Torrey Smith. I doubt this really matters, but Kaepernick has a 3-0 record against the Packers, the team he grew up rooting for. If you’re looking to spend little on your QB for the week, you might want to make Kaepernick your guy.
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders, $5,300 – This price tag really shocked me, and honestly this might be my pick for my team this weekend. In the first three games this season, Carr has completed over 63 percent of his passes, tallying 726 yards with five touchdowns. Oh, did I mention he’s going up against the Chicago Bears’ defense? Give me a break; I’m going to be all over this one. Carr tore apart the Browns defense last week, so this weekend should be a walk in the park. The Bears’ secondary has given up eight passing touchdowns, 31st in the NFL. All signs are pointing to a breakout season for Carr, as he finally has some offensive weapons to work with in Oakland. Did I mention how much I love Carr this weekend? Sheesh.