Fantasy Football

2015 Fantasy Football: When To Draft A Quarterback

It’s a question that creates strong arguments among fantasy owners and almost everyone’s opinion differs. When is it OK to draft a quarterback? Just the other night I was out at a sports bar and somebody said they planned to take Luck early. This almost started a riot with multiple people expressing how dumb this was while others tried to explain their differing opinions. Needless to say the argument ended up being a draw. No one could agree.

Having a good quarterback for your fantasy season can be the difference between a Championship or the basement. Whether it’s a good move or not depends on when you get them almost as much as whom you get.

The simple answer is do what you want. It’s your team. Personally I have no issue with grabbing the number 1 or 2 player at any position in the first round (except obviously Kicker or D/ST). That’s what early picks are for, grabbing the best guys. When you look at the statistics, though, you really are hard pressed to prove that taking one of the best two QBs in the draft (for the sake of this article we’ll say Rodgers and Luck) makes sense.

Format is the first thing we need to cross of the list. If you are in a 2 QB league, or if your league gives out 6 points per TD pass, or bonus points for amount of yards, etc., then the importance of picking a QB early is amplified. You almost have no choice. I’m really not addressing that faction of owners with this article. I’m addressing owners that are in leagues that are closer to standard.

If you look at the statistics, in standard leagues quarterbacks make up the Top 6 scoring players available. Last year with a 4 point Passing TD/No Frills scoring as our basis, Rodgers, Luck, Wilson, Manning, Roethlisberger and Drew Brees all had more points than the first RB/WR. In fact, of the Top 25 scoring players, 17 of them were quarterbacks.

After reading that last paragraph, proponents of drafting a Quarterback early said, “AH HA! I knew it! See how important they are!” Well of course they are important, they are the one player on the field that has the ball in their hands the most and generally dictates the outcome of every real game. The most important part of that last sentence was “Real Game”.

This is fantasy, not the real game, and while the value of a QB in the real game is your most important (and highest paid) position, in fantasy you have a large pool to choose from for one position. Conversely, you have at minimum, not factoring the flex, the need for 3 RB’s and 3 WR’s. That’s minimum. While having a good QB never hurts, sacrificing at other positions to get that good QB is foolish.

The explanation is simple. On any given Sunday in a standard league with nine positions (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, D/ST, K) the QB makes up 11% of your starting lineup. If you have a 16 man roster and have 2 QBs that’s a whopping 12.5% of your roster. There are 32 teams in the NFL (in case you didn’t know) and that means there are 32 different QBs to choose from. You have those same 32 teams that have to fill out the remaining roster on your team and that pool of useful players will shrink exponentially faster.

Using my latest draft as an example, everyone was scurrying around in the 14th round taking risks on WR/RB’s to fill out their roster, as we all do. One owner drafted Joe Flacco who was the 13th ranked QB last year. That’s fantastic value. Meanwhile the 13th ranked RB (Alfred Morris) went with the last pick in the 3rd round and the 13th ranked non-PPR WR (Golden Tate) went in the 6th.

It’s very important to understand the scoring in your league and the kinds of value different types of players have within your scoring system. That dictates this question the most. It’s also important to understand the value of those players in the heads of the owners in your league. If a guy/girl is a huge Packers fan, I can understand picking Rodgers early. Or maybe Peyton Manning is your favorite player. Under those circumstances go ahead and get your guy.

Personally in standard scoring leagues I can’t condone picking a QB before both of your RB and WR spots are filled. So the 5th round is the earliest you should draft a QB in standard scoring leagues. Using this same philosophy in the very same draft we spoke of earlier I was able to draft Tom Brady in the 5th round and Phillip Rivers in the 11th. Two Top 12 QBs without sacrificing at other positions. I can live with that.

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