Fantasy Football

Week 17 Fantasy Football, "Peckin' Order": 2012 Outlook, Players On The Rise & Fall

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Matthew Stafford (credits below)

YOU ARE THE CHAMPION! But what do you do to repeat next season?

You’re season is over, or at the very least has one more week left. For the majority of leagues a champion has already been crowned. And if you read this column for the second half of the season, and followed the players listed here you probably won, I know I did. But the hard part isn’t over just yet, there is still next season you need to worry about. And while you may be scratching your head trying to figure out why I would be worrying about next season when technically this season isn’t over yet, it’s for good reason. Just like the NFL, as an entirety repeating championships isn’t an easy task to complete. Players get hurt, they get traded, new teams sign them and things can completely go awry, So going into next season here is my list of guys rising up the charts, and those falling to the bottom.

RISE:

Cam Newton (CAR, 3) has SHATTERED some NFL records let alone rookie records. Before the season even began NO ONE knew what was about to happen as for the most part Cam went undrafted. Following his first week performance when he came out and outplayed most veteran QBs he was snatched up faster then fallen money at a strip club. Next season we may see a drop off in rushing TDs, but when you score 14 rushing TDs one season the drop off would still be well worth a top QB pick. He only gets better as he goes and with a full off season for him to work out just imagine what he will be capable of going forward.

Matthew Stafford (DET, 5) finally stayed healthy, and has brought his Lions to the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade because of it. Many fantasy prognosticators believed that if healthy Stafford would be a monster, and they were absolutely right. Stafford threw for multiple TDs in every game except for two, including 6 games with 3 or more touchdowns. Combined with his great TD statistics Stafford also threw for more than 240 yards 12 times this season resulting in him finishing as a top 5 QB in the NFL.

Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC, 4) proved that his injury is something of the past. The beginning of the season he was a yard-gaining monster, running for no less than 85 yards through the first 7 weeks of the season, and he only ran for less than 85 yards once all season. The problem was his inability to get in the end zone, and that had a lot to do with the Jaguars anemic offense. As the season went on MJD was able to find the end zone more frequently scoring 5 times on the ground in the last 7 games with three more through the air. If Jones-Drew can keep up the pace scoring more often than he was he will be back to a top 5 draft pick in 2012.

If you’re a Jets fan you will think I am absolutely out of my mind, but Mark Sanchez (NYJ, 10) put together a pretty good fantasy season. With double-digit touchdowns in 8 weeks so far this season, and 6 games of more than 230 yards passing puts him in the top 10 of fantasy QBs this season. His turnover numbers were high, and he had more under 230-yard games then he had over, but if he can grow on those numbers next season and become more consistent in the passing game Sanchez could find himself rising up the charts even more in 2012.

Not only was Rob Gronkowski (NE, 1) the best overall tight end this season, but also the 2nd best wide receiver to Calvin Johnson (DET, 1) and not by much. Gronkowski finished 16th among all fantasy point getters, ahead of some quarterbacks including Michael Vick (PHI, 11) and topnotch running backs like Adrian Peterson (MIN, 6). Rob caught at least 5 passes in 9 games this season and surpassed 70 yards receiving 9 times as well. Gronkowski blew people away with his record setting touchdown grabs breaking the record for the most touchdowns by a tight end in a season and that was done in a season where in 6 games he had zero scores. The Gronkman is going to warrant a very high draft pick next season and I could see him being the highest drafted tight end in fantasy sports history.

Marshawn Lynch (SEA, 5) proved me wrong, and showed that matchups mean nothing to him. Going into the final playoff weeks of the season Lynch had the toughest schedule for opposing running backs going up against strong run defenses such as the Bears and the best of the best 49ers. Not only did Lynch prove me wrong but he recorded 100 yards or more in 4 of his last 5 games, scored 6 touchdowns in his last 4 games and was the only running back to gain 100 yards and the only running back to score on the vaunted 49er defense. Lynch seems to be back to his early career form and that should be represented with a high draft pick next season.

FALL:

Josh Freeman (TB, 18) was a highly touted sleeper candidate for quarterbacks in 2011, but man did he disappoint. Freeman was outscored by Tim Tebow (DEN, 14), Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF, 13), and Alex Smith (SF, 17) and only had two double-digit touchdown performances all season long. For the most part Freeman had the yards completing more than 240 yards passing 7 times this season, but his inability to find the end zone not only hurt him, but the playmakers around him.

Mike Williams (TB, 49) was one of those playmakers around Freeman that struggled big time in 2011. Williams came off an amazing rookie season scoring more than 10 times, but this year was a major difference with only 3 scores. It wasn’t just the number of touchdowns, or lack thereof that was the problem but his inability to gain yards that caused most of the problems. Williams had 11 games where he caught 4 or more passes, but had 8 games of 50 of fewer receiving yards and 4 of those games under 40 yards. If Williams plans on getting drafted next season he better pick it up big time in the off season.

Probably the biggest flop of the season was Chris Johnson (TEN, 17). Formerly known as CJ2k only had 5 games of more than 60 yards and only found the end zone 4 times on the ground. No one knows if it was the signing of his contract, or the hold out that slowed him down, but everyone waited for him to break out and the consistency just never came. His back to back 150+ yard games a few weeks ago were extremely promising, his 3 straight under 60 yard performances to follow sent him right back to the cellar where he belongs. CJ0K is not worth drafting in 2012.

Speaking of flopping first round draft picks, Rashard Mendenhall (PIT, 18) actually played worse than Chris Johnson. Mendenhall matched CJ’s 5 games of more than 60 yards rushing, and scored more touchdowns than Johnson did, but with only two 100-yard rushing games Mendenhall found him in the flex spot realm more often than not. Until Mendenhall can show that he consistently can get it done on the ground keep him off your draft boards entirely.

Another struggling halfback goes to Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG, 22) who was drafted among the top running backs in the league to start the season and finished outside of RB2 honors in the end. Missing 4 games in a row can easily do that to a player, but injury isn’t the reason why Bradshaw found himself falling as far as he did. With only one 100-yard game and only one other game over 60 yards rushing Bradshaw just didn’t get it done for your fantasy team. He couldn’t find the end zone consistently either. He did score 8 times on the ground this season, but with 3 in one game, and 3 in the last two weeks Bradshaw found himself with more goose eggs than not. Bradshaw just like Mendenhall, and Johnson have the talent of top tier halfbacks, but until he can prove that he can be there with fluidity he should be skipped on draft day.

Despite Mark Sanchez reaching top 10 numbers for fantasy QBs, his wide receivers weren’t all that consistent in their own rankings this year. Santonio Holmes (NYJ, 27) and Plaxico Burress (NYJ, 34) combined for only 205 fantasy points and never were able to put things together on a week-to-week basis. Burress and Holmes were able to combine for 16 receiving touchdowns which normally would be an amazing total however they only combined for 6 games of more than 60 yard performances and no games of 100 yards which brought their values down greatly. In 2012, flex spots for either wide receiver should be market value, reaching on either of these athletes would be a major mistake.

Congratulations on winning your leagues, and if you didn’t or came up short there is always next year (just ask the New York Mets, haha). Your seasons may be over, but the job is not done. Many of you are playing in keeper leagues, which will need to be worked out over the next 8 months until draft day. Knowing where these guys rank now and going forward will be a helpful tool going forward. Please look for my "I was right, I was wrong" column next week, as I break down the players who I was right about rising, and those who I was wrong about.

You can follow me on twitter @PeckinTheFix

All Stats are up to date as of Week 16 games, and follow NON PPR Standard leagues unless otherwise stated

As always you can find me on twitter from 10am – 12pm every Sunday answering your start / sit questions.

Check out my Baseball PeckinOrder coming to you in the middle of January. 


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