Fantasy Hockey

2014-15 Fantasy Hockey Daily Fix, December 19th

flames land
Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler, and Josh Jooris
Source: Jenn Pierce / Calgary Herald

Five games are on tap in the NHL tonight. My strategy tonight in cash games is to pay for some high talent names, and fill out the rest of my roster with some good cheap secondary players. Targeting games with a high goal total is a good idea, and with some teams playing back-to-back games, be on the look out for backup goalies that could provide decent fantasy value. With that, let’s take a look at each match up and sort through which players you should be looking to start tonight.

Game Breakdowns:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New Jersey Devils– Start Time—7:00PM

Quick Stats:

  • Tampa is 8-6-2 on the road this year (ranked 12th)
  • Second best goals per game this season (3.30/GP)
  • 12th best goals against per game (2.54/GP)
  • 9th ranked power play (21.2%)
  • 15th ranked penalty kill (80.7%)
  • Averaging 29.6 shots per game (20th in the NHL)

 

  • Devils are 3-5-4 at home this season (Last in the NHL)
  • 26th in goals-per-game this season (2.21/GP)
  • 19TH in goals against per game this season (2.76/GP)
  • 8th ranked power play (21.9%)
  • 26th ranked penalty kill (76.7%)
  • Averaging 26.5 shots per game (29th in the NHL)

New Jersey threw everything at Craig Anderson Wednesday night except the kitchen sink and couldn’t score a goal. Tampa Bay isn’t New Jersey, having many capable finishers including Steven Stamkos ($8800) who I will be paying up for. A top ten power play against a bottom five penalty-kill could mean a big night for guys like Ryan Callahan ($5100) and Victor Hedman ($5100). Another great play is rookie Jonathan Drouin ($3800). Drouin is expected to play the wing alongside Stamkos and Callahan and could definitely see some time on the 2nd power play unit. The only Devil players I would consider using in a large tournament (GPP) would be a stack of Jaromir Jagr ($4700) and Scott Gomez ($3400). They seem to have developed some chemistry playing together since Gomez joined the Devils, but I wouldn’t trust them in a cash game.

All Games: Steven Stamkos—C, Ryan Callahan—W, Jonathan Drouin—W, Andrei Vasilevskiy

GPP Only: Scott Gomez—C and Jaromir Jagr—W together

Anaheim Ducks @ Ottawa Senators—Start time—7:30 PM

Quick Stats:

  • Anaheim is 12-4-2 on the road this year (1st in the NHL)
  • 14th best goals per game this season (2.79/GP)
  • 13th best goals against per game (2.56/GP)
  • 17th ranked power play (17.5%)
  • 16th ranked penalty kill (80.5%)
  • Averaging 30.2 shots per game (14th in the NHL)

 

  • Ottawa is 6-4-3 at home this season (24th in the NHL)
  • 19th best goals per game this season (2.55/GP)
  • 17th best goals against per game (2.68/GP)
  • 13th ranked power play (19.6%)
  • 12th ranked penalty kill (82.7%)
  • Averaging 288 shots per game (24th in the NHL)

The Senators definitely have their hands full with Anaheim in town.  Craig Anderson ($8900) stood on his head against New Jersey and Ottawa looked flatfooted—being pinned in their zone for larger periods of time. Had the Devils been able to convert on one of their power play opportunities, the Sens would have probably lost that game. The Duck are coming off a 2-1 win in Montreal last night and even with the back-to-back games, I expect Anaheim to be able to dominate Ottawa in every offensive category.

First player I’d look to get into my lineups would be Ryan Getzlaf ($8900) if you decide not to go with Stamkos. Getzlaf is definitely the most talented player on the Ducks and could easily finish the night with a few shots and some points. Rene Bourque ($2900) and Devante Smith-Pelly ($3200) are listed as his wingers, and a stack of either with Getzlaf could pay off very well. On defense, Cam Fowler ($3900) is a cheaper option if you can’t fit Sami Vatanen ($5300) in your lineups, but both are excellent GPP options and Vatanen is a safe play in cash games. Matt Beleskey ($4000) is also a good GPP play if you need to fill out your line up with a potential goal-scorer.

As for the Ottawa Senators, Erik Karsson ($7500) is a great alternative if you decide to look past Vatanen and Fowler. A good GPP line stack would be Mike Hoffman ($3600)—Mika Zibanejad ($4700)—Bobby Ryan ($5800). The entire trio comes out to average $4700/player.

All Games: Ryan Getzlaf—C, Devante Smith-Pelly—W, Sami Vatanen—D, Erik Karlsson—D.

GPP only: Mike Hoffman/Mika Zibanejad/Bobby Ryan (the entire line), Rene Bourque—W (especially if paired with Getzlaf), Matt Beleskey—W.

New York Islanders @ Detroit Red Wings—Start Time—7:30PM

Quick Stats:

  • New York is 9-7-0 on the road this season (10th in the NHL)
  • 6th best goals per game this season (3.00/GP)
  • 24th best goals against per game (2.87/GP)
  • 14th ranked power play (19.5%)
  • 30th ranked penalty kill (71.1%)
  • Averaging 32.1 shots per game (3rd in the NHL)

 

  • Detroit is 11-3-5 at home this season (2nd in the NHL)
  • 11th best goals per game this season (2.84/GP)
  • 5th best goals against per game (2.31/GP)
  • 7th ranked power play (22.3%)
  • 2nd ranked penalty kill (88.1%)
  • Averaging 30.9 shots per game (10th in the NHL)

This is a GPP match up. The goal total is set at O/U 5.5 with Detroit the favorite to win. With the Islanders having the worse PK in the league, the deadly combo of Pavel Datsyuk ($6200) and Henrik Zetterberg ($6000) is one I’m willing to play in both cash and GPP. If you want to save some salary at C, Riley Sheahan ($3500) is an excellent play and has been very reliable all season. On defense, Niklas Kronwall ($4500) is a guy I would like to fit in my lineup, but I wouldn’t force him in with some other cheaper options available like Dan DeKeyser ($2700). A sneaky player that could provide some DFS value is Justin Abdelkader($3900), who is expected to be playing on the top line with Zetterberg.

Over to the Islanders where it seem like I won’t be starting anyone in cash games unless I’m really desperate to fill holes. John Tavares ($7800) and Kyle Okposo ($7700) is the only stack I would consider using in GPP to save some salary, but they’ve both been inconsistent recently and I would look elsewhere for value. On defense, Nick Leddy ($3700) provides good price/value ratio and Lubomir Visnovsky ($3400) provides the same value for GPP. For a sneaky low-ownership play, Andres Lee ($3300) would be the guy to go with.

All Games: Pavel Datsyuk—C, Henrik Zetterberg—W, Riley Sheahan—C.

GPP Only: John Tavares/Kyle Okposo stack, Dan DeKyser—D, Justin Abdelkader—W, Nick Leddy—D, Lubomir Visnovski—D

Boston Bruins @ Winnipeg Jets—Start Time—8:00PM

Quick Stats:

  • Boston is 7-7-1 on the road this season (17th in the NHL)
  • 21st best in goals per game (2.47/GP)
  • 11th best goals against per game (2.53/GP)
  • 20th ranked power play (16.2%)
  • 23rd ranked penalty kill (79.2%)
  • Averaging 30.1 shots per game (16th in the NHL)

 

  • Winnipeg is 7-6-2 at home this season (20th in the NHL)
  • 23rd in goals per game this season (2.38/GP)
  • 4th in goals against per game (2.25/GP)
  • 21st ranked power play (15.7%)
  • 8th ranked penalty kill (84.0%)
  • Averaging 30.6 shots per game (12th in the NHL)

This game is going to be a battle of the defenses (O/U set a 5.0). Both teams come in outside the top 20 in goals per game and in the top half of goals against per game. For Boston, the main players I’m trusting in cash games are Patrice Bergeron ($6500) and Dougie Hamilton ($4100). Zdeno Chara ($4900) is another player I would trust in cash games, but if you need to save the salary, go with Hamilton. A player that could provide excellent value is David Krejci ($4800). His price is a little high for my liking, but I’m willing to roll with him in a GPP lineup. As for goaltending, if you have the salary to spend on Tuukka Rask ($8800), I would go with him in GPP and in cash games tonight even if Winnipeg is the favorite to win.

The Winnipeg Jets are losing defenseman left and right and it will be interesting to see if they can keep the Bruins in check. Two players I would roll with in cash game are Evander Kane ($5400) and Blake Wheeler ($7000), the prices are a little high for both, but if I was a betting man (and I am), I would expect one of those two to score a goal tonight. If you’re looking for a relatively low-priced stack option, Bryan Little ($4600) and Wheeler would be my pairing of choice.  Seeing as Dustin Byfuglien ($6700) is listed as a W, there are some pretty good options on defense for Winnipeg. The top value plays would be Paul Postma ($2500) and Ben Chiarot ($3000) for GPP. If I had to pick one, I would go with Postma, as he has the best chance to see some power play time.

All Games: Patrice Bergeron—C, Dougie Hamilton—D, Tuukka Rask—G, Evander Kane—W, Blake Wheeler—W

GPP only: David Krejci—C, Bryan Little—C (paired with Wheeler), Paul Postma—D, Ben Chiarot—D (if you don’t go with Postma)

Dallas Stars @ Calgary Flames—Start Time—9:00PM

Quick Stats:

  • Dallas is 6-7-0 on the road this season (26th in the NHL)
  • 9th best goals per game this season (2.87/GP)
  • Worst goals against per game (3.40/GP)
  • 24th ranked power play (15.1%)
  • 22nd ranked penalty kill (79.2%)
  • Averaging 29.6 shots per game (19th in the NHL)

 

  • Calgary is 8-5-2 at home this season (18th in the NHL)
  • 10th best goals per game this season (2.85/GP)
  • 18th best goals against per game (2.70/GP)
  • 12th ranked power play (19.5%)
  • 25th ranked penalty kill (77.1%)
  • Averaging 27.7 shots per game (27th in the NHL)

Friday night finishes off with what I expect to be a high scoring game. Dallas is giving up the most goals per game in the NHL (even worse than Edmonton), and Calgary is averaging as many goals a game as Dallas, making it a scoring fest in Calgary tonight.

Everyone is going to be thinking Tyler Seguin ($9400) and Jamie Benn ($7500), but for those prices, I would move away from them both and go with some of the better values. If you absolutely want to go with either one, I suggest pairing Benn with a cheaper Cody Eakin ($3800), who is expected to be the center between both Seguin and Benn. Eakin is a great GPP option that I would even consider in cash games if I’m tight on salary. On defense, I like the rookie John Klingberg ($3100) as a cheap option who could end up with at least one power play point on the night. As for GPP, Erik Cole ($2700) is almost minimum price and has the potential to score a goal tonight with Calgary paying lots of attention to the top line.

Calgary is the team I will be stacking for sure tonight. The line of Johnny Gaudreau ($4400), Josh Jooris ($3000), and Jiri Hudler ($5000) for $4133/player is probably the best value of the night. All three are great option in cash and GPP and I would also include Sean Monohan ($4700) in that group. On defense, the combo of Mark Giordano ($7200) and T.J Brodie($4300) might be the pairing to try and stop Dallas’ top line, so if you wanted to start one and save some salary, Brodie is the player I would go with in cash and, if possible, Giordano in GPP. When it comes to cheap goaltending options, Jonas Hiller ($7000) is someone I would consider rolling in both cash and GPP. Even with Dallas’ top line, Hiller has an excellent chance of coming up with a win and that to me is the selling point. Don’t be afraid of the top line in Dallas!!!

All Games: Cody Eakin—C, Tyler Seguin—C, Jamie Benn—W, Johnny Gaudreau—W, Josh Jooris—C, Jiri Hudler—W, Sean Monahan—C, T.J Brodie—D, Jonas Hiller—G

GPP Only: Mark Giordano—D, Erik Cole—W

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

  1. Josh Jorris– $3000—Calgary Flames
  2. Steven Stamkos– $8800—Tampa Bay Lightning
  3. Henrik Zetterberg– $6000—Detroit Red Wings
  4. Patrice Bergeron– $6500—Boston Bruins
  5. Pavel Datsyuk– $6200—Detroit Red Wings
  6. Tyler Seguin– $9400—Dallas Stars
  7. Ryan Getzlaf– $8900—Anaheim Ducks

Winger

  1. Jiri Hudler– $5000—Calgary Flames
  2. Ryan Callahan– $5100—Tampa Bay Lightning
  3. Blake Wheeler– $7000—Winnipeg Jets
  4. Johnny Gaudreau– $4400—Calgary Flames
  5. Jamie Benn– $7500—Dallas Stars
  6. Devante Smith-Pelly– $3200—Anaheim Ducks
  7. Evander Kane– $5400—Winnipeg Jets

Defense

  1. Erik Karlsson– $7500—Ottawa Senators
  2. T.j Brodie– $4300—Calgary Flames
  3. Dougie Hamilton– $4100—Boston Bruins
  4. Mark Giordano– $7200—Calgary Flames
  5. Sami Vatanen– $5300—Anaheim Ducks
  6. Paul Postma– $2500—Winnipeg Jets
  7. Niklas Kronwall– $4500—Detroit Red Wings

Goalie

(Make sure to check www.leftwinglock.com for starting goalies)

  1. Jonas Hiller– $7000—Calgary Flames
  2. Tuukka Rask–$8800—Boston Bruins
Previous post

2014 Fantasy Football: Week 16 NFL DFS Deep Dive

Next post

2014-15 Fantasy Basketball Daily Fix, December 19th