Daily Fantasy Hockey: DraftKings Value Picks, November 10th
The Fix always has a full breakdown of significant NHL slates for our Front Office subscribers, but now we’re also going to be highlighting a few value plays for everyone on most days with big NHL slates. Below you’ll find three or four players who are cheap and undervalued in today’s DraftKings contests.
If you’d like to read our full breakdown of tonight’s slate, complete with player rankings, you can become a Front Office member or purchase today’s breakdown individually right here.
Reilly Smith – RW – Florida Panthers – $3,700
Vincent Trocheck – C – Florida Panthers – $3,800
While we won’t always be able to identify a really cheap, undervalued mini-stack, this pair from Florida’s second line really stands out today. The Panthers are hosting the Flames tonight, and Calgary is one of the best matchups in the league for opposing skaters. Only Colorado allows more shot attempts per 60 at even strength than Calgary, and Calgary has the worst team save percentage in the league by a full percentage point. Lots of shots plus not a lot of saves equals a lot of goals.
In particular, it’s the depth lines of the opposition that really do damage against Calgary. Their top D pair of Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie does a pretty good job of shutting down the opposition’s top players, but their other D pairs and depth lines get roughed up from a possession standpoint. Given that the Flames are allowing the most goals per game in the league, you can see just how much damage depth lines are really doing against them.
Enter Smith and Trocheck who play on Florida’s second line and second power play unit together. The pair has been undeniably cold recently with just one point between them in the last five games. But hockey is the streakiest of all sports, and this is the type of matchup to bust a slump. Their recent struggles have driven their price tags down below $4,000, giving them serious value potential in this sweet matchup. If you don’t feel comfortable using the mini-stack, that’s fine. Using one of them will provide excellent salary relief. But don’t be afraid of the mini-stack, and don’t be afriad to pair them with their other linemate, Jussi Jokinen, if you want use the whole line in a GPP. Using that line would free you up to spend big elsewhere, perhaps leaving you enough to roster multiple top liners from Dallas.
Alec Martinez – D – Los Angeles Kings – $3,100
The Kings have a very nice matchup tonight hosting an Arizona team that played last night. The Coyotes are always a good matchup because of their subpar goaltending, but playing on the back end of a back-to-back on the road makes them even more of a target.
The Kings rank second in the league in shot attempts per 60 at even strength, so they can be a dominant possession team. By far their best line is the Jeff Carter/Tyler Toffoli/Milan Lucic line as those three players lead the team in shot attempts per 60 by a comfortable margin. Martinez has the benefit of playing with that trio on the power play, and he has two goals in his last four games as a result. That quartet has netted nine goals in the last ten games. Look for Martinez to be involved in some fashion in another tally tonight.
Reto Berra – G – Colorado Avalanche – $6,400
Let’s start with why you wouldn’t play Berra. The Avalanche are in Philly tonight where they are a slight underdog at +114. If you’re chasing a safe win, Berra isn’t your guy. But he has upside and thus has value potential with such a low price tag. His upside comes from the fact that no team allows more shot attempts per 60 at even strength than the Avs. That’s a bit scary because it means the Flyers will have plenty of chances, but it also means Berra will have plenty of opportunities to rack up those point-twos you get with each save. The Flyers attempt a slightly above average number of shot attempts per 60, but they are next to last in goals per game. A lot of shots and not a lot of goals are exactly what you’re looking for in a goalie. So while Berra may not be a safe cash game play, he certainly has value potential in GPPs.