Fantasy HockeyFront Office

Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: February 26, 2015

Welcome to The Fantasy Fix daily fantasy hockey strategy. Below you will find rankings and projections for tonight’s NHL action. Building a winning lineup isn’t easy, so we’ll do our best to guide you in the right direction and help you win some serious cash. With that, let’s take a look at some matchups you should be targeting tonight.

As always, make sure to check out LeftWingLock for goalie confirmations.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.

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Teams To Target

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Edmonton Oilers v. Anaheim Ducks

While the Anaheim Ducks look to solidify their position in the Western Conference, the Edmonton Oilers look like a team destined for another first overall pick. Anaheim has finally found their game after a slow start to the season and should have no problem imposing their will on a weak Edmonton defense.

The Ducks top line of Ryan Getzlaf, David Perron and Mike Santorelli is the line to target in cash games. Santorelli isn’t really fantasy relevant, so avoiding him should be easy, but if you need to save some salary to fit the high priced superstars in, he’s worth a look. As for Getzlaf and Perron, the pair plays together both five-on-five and on the power play, so mini-stacking them is the way to go. If you want to move away from players with high ownership, Rickard Rakell and Corey Perry are options to consider. The pair doesn’t play together on the power play, but Edmonton’s depth won’t be able to contain both of Anaheim’s top two lines, and there’s a good chance that Anaheim’s second line get’s the “easier” matchup.

The benefit of going with the Duck’s top line is that it allows you to go with Sami Vatanen for a power play stack. His price tag doesn’t offer much value, but he’s definitely the defenseman to own tonight.

And finally, John Gibson is pretty much a must start in cash games. He can be faded in GPPs because of his high ownership, but he’s as close to a sure win as you’ll find tonight. Even if Edmonton has a ton of dangerous weapons up front, they won’t be able to find much room against a strong, well-balanced Anaheim defense.

Minnesota Wild v. Washington Capitals

The Capitals are coming off an embarrassing 4-3 loss to the Montreal Canadiens that saw Braden Holtby get pulled midway through the second period. It was a lackluster performance by Barry Trotz’s team and there’s no chance the Caps come out flat again like they did Wednesday. As for the Wild, they’ve been much better since Mike Yeo was fired as head coach, but as the saying goes, what goes up, must come down, and I expect the Wild to start regressing as of tonight.

The number one question that everyone will be asking is: should I fade Alex Ovechekin? Let’s do some quick math, shall we?

Over his last ten games, Ovi has recorded 13 points (ten of those points have been goals) and has totaled 64 shots on goal—an average of just over six shots per game. Ovechkin’s season average FPPG on DraftKings is 5.6 points, and over his last ten games, his average has risen to 7.3 points. According to my breakdown, in order for him to reach his value based on his $9100 price tag, he would need to hit 6.3 fantasy points. Over his last four games, he’s managed to surpass his value three times (although he failed to do so against Montreal) and has done so in a convincing fashion (10.5 pts, 8 pts & 11 pts). I’m not saying you need play Ovi, but he’s kind of been the Steph Curry of hockey all season and even more so over the last seven days.

Ok, back to business. Evgeny Kuznetsov and Justin Williams join Ovechkin on the top line. The problem here is Kuznetsov/Williams play on the second unit, while Ovi plays on the top unit. As much as that brings their value down, it still won’t be enough to turn me away from the line. It may be hard to fit Ovechkin/Kuznetsov in any given lineup, but that’s the mini-stack to go with.

For those of you looking to move off the top line, Nicklas Backstrom and T.J Oshie play together both five-on-five and on the top power play unit. Their price tags are a little more appealing on DK than FD &FDraft, but you can still use them on all three sites.

On the blue line, John Carlson is an option to consider if you’re looking for the top power play stack. If you decided to go with the top line, Carlson is an easy fade since only Ovi plays on the top unit, but if you roll with Backstrom/Oshie, Carlson is worth a look. Don’t feel the need to completely overhaul your lineup to fit him in, because there are other options worth considering.

This section wouldn’t be complete without mentioning how great of a play Holtby is tonight. As mentioned earlier, the Wild have been a better team since Yeo was let go as head coach, but Holtby has been a monster all season. He’s been exceptionally good at home, posting a 20-2-1 record with a 2.13 GAA and a .924 SV%.

Buffalo Sabres v. San Jose Sharks

If you are familiar with the term “tilting”, then you know how difficult it is to roster any Sharks player not named Brent Burns. San Jose is the definition of a love/hate relationship; you just never know how good, or bad, they are going to be. The Sabres just aren’t the same team without Ryan O’Reilly, so the Sharks should be able to score a few goals and win this game fairly easily, right? Vegas has them as an early -245 favourite to win this game (as of 10PM ET Thursday night), but somehow it doesn’t feel like it’ll be that simple.

If you decided to fade Ovechkin because you trust your gut, the next superstar up worth playing for is Joe Pavelski. The good news is, he’s much more affordable than Ovi and it also gives you some wiggle room to fit it Joe Thornton. As usual, Pavelski is listed as a C on DK, so you’re going to need to get creative to fit both Joes in.

If you want to go with a power play stack, Burns is the player to add. The bearded warrior is an offensive juggernaut that just can’t be stopped. Yes, he’s expensive, and yes, you may want to fade him, but by playing Burns you essentially have another forward in your lineup.

Other Options to Consider

  • Brad Marchand V. Caroline Hurricanes: Marchand has been so good this season and his price on DK is still below 7K. The pesky goal scorer is playing some of his best hockey ever, and is an excellent option to consider in cash games against a mediocre Carolina team.
  • Tampa Bay Lightning V. New Jersey Devils: Use Steven Stamkos. The end.

Player Rankings

Rankings are price sensitive

DraftKings

Forwards

  1. Rikard Rakell—Anaheim Ducks–$4700
  2. Sam Reinhart—Buffalo Sabres–$4300
  3. Ryan Getzlaf—Anaheim Ducks–$6000
  4. Joe Thornton—San Jose Sharks–$5500
  5. Elias Lindholm—Carolina Hurricanes–$3900
  6. Evgeny Kuznetsov—Washington Capitals–$6700
  7. Steven Stamkos—Tampa Bay Lightning–$7200
  8. Joe Pavelski—San Jose Sharks–$7500

Wingers

  1. David Perron—Anaheim Ducks–$4700
  2. Justin Williams—Washington Capitals–$5300
  3. Loui Eriksson—Boston Bruins–$5600
  4. Alex Ovechkin—Washington Capitals–$9100
  5. Brad Marchand—Boston Bruins–$6900
  6. Corey Perry—Anaheim Ducks–$6300
  7. Jeff Skinner—Carolina Hurricanes–$5100

Defenseman

  1. Noah Hanifin—Carolina Hurricanes
  2. Cam Fowler—Anaheim Ducks–$4200
  3. Sami Vatanen—Anaheim Ducks–$5100
  4. Brent Burns—San Jose Sharks–$8200
  5. Torey Krug—Boston Bruins–$5700
  6. John Carlson—Washington Capitals–$5800

Goalie

  1. John Gibson—Anaheim Ducks–$7400
  2. Ben Bishop—Tampa Bay Lightning–$7800
  3. Braden Holtby—Washington Capitals–$8600
  4. Martin Jones—San Jose Sharks–$7500

FanDuel

Forwards

  1. Sam Reinhart—Buffalo Sabres–$4500
  2. David Krejci—Boston Bruins–$5800
  3. Rickard Rakell—Anaheim Ducks–$6300
  4. Joe Thornton—San Jose Sharks–$6600
  5. Eric Staal—Carolina Hurricanes–$6000
  6. Ryan Getzlaf—Anaheim Ducks–$8300
  7. Evgeny Kuznetsov—Washington Capitals–$7300
  8. Steven Stamkos—Tampa Bay Lightning–$8000

Wingers

 Right Wing

  1. Mike Santorelli—Anaheim Ducks–$4200
  2. Joel Ward—San Jose Sharks–$4400
  3. Joe Pavelski—San Jose Sharks–$7700
  4. Justin Williams—Washington Capitals–$5500
  5. Corey Perry—Anaheim Ducks-$7000
  6. Victor Rask—Carolina Hurricanes–$4600

Left Wing

  1. Elias Lindholm—Carolina Hurricanes–$3900
  2. Loui Eriksson—Boston Bruins–$5300
  3. David Perron—Anaheim Ducks–$5600
  4. Alex Ovechkin—Washington Capitals–$10,700
  5. Tomas Hertl—San Jose Sharks–$5100
  6. Brad Marchand—Boston Bruins–$8200

Defenseman

  1. Noah Hanifin—Carolina Hurricanes–$3100
  2. Sami Vatanen—Anaheim Ducks–$5100
  3. Rasmus Ristolainen—Buffalo Sabres–$4000
  4. Brent Burns—San Jose Sharks–$7400
  5. John Carlson—Washington Capitals–$5100
  6. Torey Krug—Boston Bruins–$5500
  7. Cam Fowler—Anaheim Ducks–$4400

Goalie

  1. John Gibson—Anaheim Ducks–$7900
  2. Braden Holtby—Washington Capitals–$9500
  3. Andrei Vasilevsky—Tampa Bay Lightning–$7900
  4. Martin Jones—San Jose Sharks–$8400

FantasyDraft

 Forwards

  1. Elias Lindholm—Carolina Hurricanes–$7800
  2. Sam Reinhart—Buffalo Sabres–$8500
  3. Rickard Rakell—Anaheim Ducks–$9300
  4. Ryan Getzlaf—Anaheim Ducks–$12,500
  5. Joe Pavelski—Anaheim Ducks–$15,500
  6. Steven Stamkos—Tampa Bay Lightning–$15,000
  7. Evgeny Kuznetsov—Washington Capitals–$13,900
  8. Joe Thornton–San Jose Sharks–$11,300

Wingers

  1. David Perron—Anaheim Ducks–$9600
  2. David Pastrnak—Boston Bruins–$8500
  3. Loui Eriksson—Boston Bruins–$11,600
  4. Justin Williams—Washington Capitals–$11,000
  5. Corey Perry—Anaheim Ducks–$13,200
  6. Alex Ovechkin—Washington Capitals–$18,900
  7. Brad Marchand—Boston Bruins–$14,300
  8. Tomas Hertl—San Jose Sharks–$10,700

Defenseman

  1. Noah Hanifin—Caroline Hurricanes–$7300
  2. Cam Fowler—Anaheim Ducks–$8700
  3. John Carlson—Washington Capitals–$11,900
  4. Sami Vatanen—Anaheim Ducks–$10,500
  5. Brent Burns—San Jose Sharks–$16,800
  6. Torey Krug—Boston Bruins–$11,700
  7. Victor Hedman—Tampa Bay Lightning–$12,400

Team G

  1. Tampa Bay Lightning–$16,100
  2. Anaheim Ducks–$15,500
  3. Washington Capitals–$17,500
  4. San Jose Sharks–$15,200

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