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Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: March 3, 2015

Welcome to The Fantasy Fix daily fantasy hockey strategy. Below you will find rankings and projections for tonight’s NHL action. Building a winning lineup isn’t easy, so we’ll do our best to guide you in the right direction and help you win some serious cash. With that, let’s take a look at some matchups you should be targeting tonight.

As always, make sure to check out LeftWingLock for goalie confirmations.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.

Teams To Target

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Minnesota Wild v. Toronto Maple Leafs

This has become somewhat of a new rule in NHL DFS: every time the Leafs are in action, you stack against them. Toronto may be a better team with William Nylander and Kasperi Kapanen in the lineup, but on defense, they’re still a mess. For Minnesota, they’ve become a whole new team ever since Mike Yeo was relieved of his duties as head coach. The Wild have been scoring goals in bunches—including scoring six last game against Colorado—so it’s a real possibility that they put up four-plus goals by the end of the night.

Let’s start with the obvious. Minnesota’s top line of Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu and Charlie Coyle is the line to stack. With so many great options available tonight, if you decided to go with just Parise/Coyle as a mini-stack, no one would call you crazy. The beauty of going with that mini-stack is that Coyle is still listed as a C on DK, so you’ll benefit from that greatly.

For GPPs, Minnesota’s third line is just too good to pass up on. They won’t be highly owned and their matchup against a weak Toronto bottom six is a mismatch. Jason Pominville has probably benefitted the most from the coaching change and Nino Niederreiter has been a great compliment player to Pominville. The best news is both players play together on the second power play unit. They aren’t a sexy play, but they may very well help fill your bank account by the end of the night.

On defense, Matthew Dumba is getting the opportunity to be a part of the top power play unit. Depending on which site you play on, Dumba is by far the better value in comparison to Ryan Suter, who’s priced over $6K on DK. Suter is always a great play because of how many minutes he plays a night, but Dumba is the player to go with if you need to save some salary to pay up for the big fish.

San Jose Sharks v. Vancouver Canucks

It’s no secret that the San Jose Sharks are a stronger team away from SAP Centre. For some reason, they just play better hockey, and tonight they have a terrific matchup against the Canucks in Vancouver. The Canucks are a below-average defensive team at home (24th, 2.46 GA/60) and are ranked last in GF/60 (yes, even New Jersey scores more goals at home than Vancouver). It’s a matchup that daily fantasy players will want to take advantage of.

The Sharks top line of Tomas Hertl, Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski is where DFS players should start. Thornton/Pavelski play together during both five-on-five and on the power play, and both are reasonably priced across all platforms. Pavelski is the sniper on that line, so if you need to pick just one forward to roll with, go with him.

San Jose’s second line has now become an option with Logan Couture joining Patrick Marleau and Joonas Donskoi. Marleau & Couture play on the top power play unit and there’s an excellent chance the duo won’t see very much of Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin. Couture has been pretty hot of late, registering 11 points in his last ten games.

It may be impossible to fit him in, but Brent Burns is an option every time the Sharks take the ice. He’s crazy expensive everywhere, but you know that when you roster Burns, you’re basically playing an extra forward. It’s going to be hard to fit him in, but he’s worth the headache from figuring it out.

As mentioned earlier, the Canucks just can’t score goals at home. Assuming Martin Jones gets the start, he becomes an elite option for DFS players to consider. If you want to make life really simple, roll with Jones and don’t look back.

Tampa Bay Lightning v. Ottawa Senators

The Lightning didn’t exactly destroy the Leafs in their last outing like everyone expected them to, but most people will be going back to the well and hope that Tampa can find a way to score a bunch against a Senators team that really isn’t that good defensively. To make matters even worse for the Sens, the Lightning are ranked 4th in GF/60 on the road (2.68).

Everyone will be looking at Steven Stamkos and his linemates as the best trio to roster, but Tampa’s second line of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov is the line that you should be stacking, especially in GPPs. Ottawa’s top defensive pairing of Erik Karlsson and Marc Methot will be on the ice every time Stamkos takes a shift, which means Cody Ceci and Dion Phaneuf will see a lot of Tampa Bay’s second line, and that’s a mismatch. Yes, Karlsson and Methot play a lot, but they can’t be on the ice all the time. There’s no way that Ottawa treats the Johnson line as the top line, so coach Cameron will use home ice advantage to try and neutralize Stamkos and hope the other two defensive pairings can shut down the rest of the team.

The only bummer is that Palat/Kucherov join Stamkos and Victor Hedman on the top power play unit, while Johnson plays on the second unit with Alex Killorn and Ryan Callahan. It’s always more beneficial to play a winger-winger stack on DK and FantasyDraft because of the utility spot, but if you want to roll with two wingers on FD as well, go for it.

Other Options to Consider:

* Chicago Blackhawks v. Boston Bruins: The Bruins are ranked last in GA/60 at home and Patrick Kane is in town. He’s crazy expensive, but Kane has a real chance of scoring two goals tonight against this Bruins team, even if Patrice Bergeron shadows him on the ice all game. A Kane-Artemi Panarin stack is going to be expensive, but it’s going to be hard to fade them completely.

* Montreal Canadiens v. Los Angeles Kings: My Montreal Canadiens lost 3-2 in a SO last night to the Anaheim Ducks and there’s a good chance they lose again tonight. LA isn’t particularly good at scoring goals at home, but Montreal isn’t particularly good at playing hockey out West. If you can find a way to fit Tyler Toffoli and Jeff Carter into your line, do it.The same goes for Jonathan Quick, assuming he gets the start.

Player Rankings

 Ranking are price sensitive

DraftKings

Forwards

  1. Sam Reinhart—Buffalo Sabres–$4200
  2. Charlie Coyle—Minnesota Wild–$4700
  3. Tyler Johnson—Tampa Bay Lightning–$5500
  4. Logan Couture—San Jose Sharks–$6200
  5. Jeff Carter—Los Angeles Kings–$5800
  6. Jonathan Toews—Chicago Blackhawks–$5900
  7. Joe Pavelski—San Jose Sharks–$7500
  8. Connor McDavid—Edmonton Oilers–$7000
  9. Steven Stamkos—Tampa Bay Lightning–$7200
  10. Ryan Getzlaf—Anaheim Ducks–$6300

Wingers

  1. Jamie McGinn—Anaheim Ducks–$3900
  2. Ondrej Palat—Tampa Bay Lightning–$4300
  3. Jason Pominville—Minnesota Wild–$4800
  4. Patrick Marleau—San Jose Sharks–$5700
  5. Filip Forsberg—Nashville Predators–$6300
  6. Tyler Toffoli—Los Angeles Kings–$5900
  7. Patrick Kane—Chicago Blackhawks–$8700
  8. Zach Parise—Minnesota Wild–$7100
  9. Nikita Kucherov—Tampa Bay Lightning–$6600
  10. Artemi Panarin—Chicago Blackhawks–$6500

Defenseman

  1. Matt Dumba—Minnesota Wild–$4400
  2. Sami Vatanen—Anaheim Ducks–$5100
  3. Shayne Gostisbehere—Philadelphia Flyers–$5800
  4. Victor Hedman—Tampa Bay Lightning–$6100
  5. Jake Muzzin—Los Angeles Kings–$5300
  6. Duncan Keith—Chicago Blackhawks–$6100
  7. Brent Burns—San Jose Sharks–$8000
  8. Ryan Suter—Minnesota Wild–$6200
  9. Jared Spurgeon—Monnesota Wild–$4400

Goalie

  1. Pekka Rinne—Nashville Predators–$8000
  2. Martin Jones—San Jose Sharks–$7500
  3. Jonathan Quick—Los Angeles Kings–$8400
  4. Devan Dubnyk—Minnesota Wild–$7500
  5. Thomas Greiss—New York Islanders–$7900

FanDuel

Forwards

  1. Artem Anisimov—Chicago Blackhawks–$4900
  2. Mikko Koivu—Minnesota Wild–$5200
  3. Jeff Carter—Los Angeles Kings–$6400
  4. Tyler Johnson—Tampa Bay Lightning–$6400
  5. Logan Couture—San Jose Sharks–$7100
  6. Steven Stamkos—Tampa Bay Lightning–$8500
  7. Ryan Getzlaf—Anaheim Ducks–$8600
  8. Connor McDavid—Edmonton Oilers–$7200
  9. Joe Thornton—San Jose Sharks–$6700

Wingers

 Right Wing

  1. Sam Reinhart—Buffalo SAbres–$4500
  2. Charlie Coyle—Minnesota Wild–$4800
  3. Tyler Toffoli—Los Angeles Kings–$5700
  4. Nikita Kucherov—Tampa Bay Lightning–$6300
  5. Joe Pavelski—San Jose Sharks–$8100
  6. Wayne Simmonds—Philadelphia Flyers–$7700
  7. Jason Pominville—Minnesota Wild–$6400

Left Wing

  1. Patrick Marleau—San Jose Sharks–$5100
  2. Nino Niederreiter—Minnesota Wild–$5000
  3. Ondrej Palat—Tampa Bay Lightning–$5800
  4. David Perron—Anaheim Ducks–$5900
  5. Taylor Hall—Edmonton Oilers–$6400
  6. Alex Killorn—Tampa Bay Lightning–$5900
  7. Artemi Panarin—Chicago Blackhawks–$6600
  8. Zach Parise—Minnesota Wild–$7800
  9. Filip Forsberg—Nashville Predators–$8400

Defenseman

  1. Matthew Dumba—Minnesota Wild–$4400
  2. Aaron Ekblad—Florida Panthers–$4700
  3. Ryan Suter—Minnesota Wild–$5000
  4. Shayne Gostisbehere—Philadelphia Flyers–$5100
  5. Sami Vatanen—Anaheim Ducks–$5400
  6. Jake Muzzin—Los Angeles Kings–$5300
  7. Duncan Keith—Chicago Blackhawks–$5600
  8. Victor Hedman—Tampa Bay Lightning–$5700
  9. Brent Burns—San Jose Sharks–$7100
  10. Brent Seabrook—Chicago Blackhawks–$5100

Goalie

  1. Pekka Rinne—Nashville Predators–$8700
  2. Jonathan Quick—Los Angeles Kings–$8600
  3. Martin Jones—San Jose Sharks–$8600
  4. Devan Dubnyk—Minnesota Wild–$7800
  5. Robin Lehner—Buffalo Sabres–$7500

FantasyDraft

Forwards

  1. Sam Reinhart—Buffalo Sabres–$8400
  2. Charlie Coyle—Minnesota Wild–$9300
  3. Artem Anisimov—Chicago Blackhawks–$9300
  4. Tyler Johnson—Tampa Bay Lightning–$11,400
  5. Jeff Carter—Los Angeles Kings–$12,000
  6. Logan Couture—San Jose Sharks–$12,900
  7. Steven Stamkos—Tampa Bay Lightning–$15,000
  8. Joe Pavelski—San Jose Sharks–$15,500
  9. Connor McDavid—Edmonton Oilers–$14,600
  10. Ryan Getzlaf—Anaheim Ducks–$13,200

Wingers

  1. Ondrej Palat—Tampa Bay Lightning–$8600
  2. Patrick Marleau—San Jose Sharks–$11,700
  3. Alex Killorn—Tampa Bay Lightning–$8500
  4. David Perron—Anaheim Ducks–$9600
  5. Jason Pominville—Minnesota Wild–$9800
  6. Tyler Toffoli—Los Angeles Kings–$12,100
  7. Zach Parise—Minnesota Wild–$14,800
  8. Nikita Kucherov—Tampa Bay Lightning–$13,600
  9. Artemi Panarin—Chicago Blackhawks–$13,500
  10. Patrick Kane—Chicago Blackhawks–$18,000

Defenseman

  1. Matthew Dumba—Minnesota Wild–$9000
  2. Aaron Ekblad—Florida Panthers–$9700
  3. Sami Vatanen—Anaheim Ducks–$10,500
  4. Shayne Gostisbehere—Philadelphia Flyers–$11,900
  5. Duncan Keith—Chicago Blackhawks–$12,400
  6. Victor Hedman—Tampa Bay Lightning–$12,400
  7. Brent Burns—San Jose Sharks–$16,400
  8. Jake Muzzin—Los Angeles Kings–$10,900
  9. Ryan Suter—Minnesota Wild–$12,700

Team G

  1. San Jose Sharks–$15,200
  2. Minnesota Wild–$15,200
  3. Nashville Predators–$16,200
  4. Los Angeles Kings–$17,200
  5. Buffalo Sabres–$14,300

 

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