Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: November 25, 2015
All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength and score-adjusted unless otherwise noted.
And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.
We have a huge slate tonight after only four teams were in action last night. Let’s dive right in…
Two of the best offenses in the league are in action tonight, and they’re playing each other. I’m talking about the Montreal Canadiens and the New York Rangers, but unfortunately that means I’m also talking about Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist, so DFSers may want to steer clear of that matchup. The Habs took the first meeting 3-0, but the Rangers get the home ice advantage this time around, and Montreal just lost Brendan Gallagher for the next six weeks. Of course anything could happen, but this one just has too many arrows pointing towards low-scoring game.
TEAMS TO TARGET
The best head-to-head matchup is Boston at the Detroit Red Wings. The Bruins are nearly four percentage points better than the Wings in puck possession, while holding distinct advantages in goals and shots per game, as well as faceoffs. Not to mention, Boston has the best power play in the league. The Bruins got goals from Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug and David Krejci in their 3-1 win over the Wings earlier this season. Having the last change doesn’t seem to phase the Bruins who are 7-2 on the road. David Krecji and his line spent most of the game paired against Pavel Datsyuk, who has been great since returning from injury. Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Jimmy Hayes have been getting the more favorable line matchups as of late anyway, so give the bump in value to that line.
If there is a game that has high scoring written all over it, it would be Ottawa at Colorado – assuming Ottawa has any scoring left in them after putting up seven against Dallas last night. Both teams are at, or near being, the worst in possession, shot attempts and goals against per game, while somehow ranking fairly respectively in goals per game, shooting and power play percentage. This means a lot of bad defense, and sets up for a high probability of turnovers on an ice full of players who can bury.
For Colorado, the trio of Nate MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene should get some time against Ottawa’s bottom six, but expect them to go toe-to-toe with Ottawa’s top line of Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan for the majority of the night. This line matchup has fireworks written all over it, as the most shot attempts for and against per 60 minutes come with these players on the ice among forwards for their respective teams. Colorado also gives up the most fantasy points per game to defensemen, so despite a hefty price tag, Erik Karlsson could potentially have a big night.
Another good matchup is the New York Islanders at home against the Flyers. The Isles won three of four games against the Flyers last season and have faired much better at home this season. They have been dominating all rivals from the Metropolitan Division, going 23-6-5 over the last two seasons. New York is averaging over a goal more per game than the Flyers, and they will be well rested – this will be New York’s first game since Sunday. New York does a great job of getting John Tavares away from the opposition’s top lines, so Tavares would be a very good buy against a Flyers team that is pretty terrible after Claude Giroux. Linemates Kyle Okposo and Brock Nelson should come much more economically priced, with Okposo getting the bump in value as a power play guy against a bad penalty killing team who likes to take penalties.
There are only three games that Vegas is projecting to go over 5 total goals, Colorado-Ottawa and NYI-Flyers being two, the other is Washington at home against Winnipeg. The Jets lead the league in penalty minutes, so anyone and everyone on the Caps dangerous power play should be in play.
1.) John Tavares – $8,100 – New York Islanders
2.) Matt Duchene – $5,700 – Colorado Avalanche
3.) Kyle Turris – $6,200 – Ottawa Senators
4.) Patrice Bergeron – $6,300 – Boston Bruins
5.) Nicklas Backstrom – $6,600 – Washington Capitals
6.) Nathan MacKinnon – $7,400 – Colorado Avalanche
1.) Kyle Okposo – $6,000 – New York Islanders
2.) Alex Ovechkin – $9,400 – Washington Capitals
3.) Bobby Ryan – $5,600 – Ottawa Senators
4.) Taylor Hall – $6,900 – Edmonton Oilers
5.) Mark Stone – $5,500 – Ottawa Senators
6.) Mike Hoffman – $5,200 – Ottawa Senators
7.) T.J. Oshie – $6,000 – Washington Capitals
8.) Gabriel Landeskog – $6,900 – Colorado Avalanche
1.) Erik Karlsson – $7,300 – Ottawa Senators
2.) Roman Josi – $6,300 – Nashville Predators
3.) Johnny Boychuk – $5,400 – New York Islanders
4.) Justin Faulk – $5,900 – Carolina Hurricanes
5.) Torey Krug – $5,900 – Boston Bruins
6.) Travis Hamonic – $3,800 – New York Islanders
1.) Jaroslav Halak – $7,400 – New York Islanders
2.) Braden Holtby – $8,100 – Washington Capitals
3.) Pekka Rinne – $8,000 – Nashville Predators
4.) Henrik Lunqvist – $8,300 – New York Rangers