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Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: November 5th, 2015

Welcome to the machine! As we dive deeper into November, there is still a ton of uncertainty as far as Daily Fantasy Hockey is concerned. It may possibly be until Thanksgiving where a better handle on new data is established. Until then, there are frankly a few tendencies, some hunches, and, of course, in your face fantasy hockey advice. You would expect nothing less from The Fantasy Fix. When you get right down to it, there are several teams that seem to scream “obvious target.” However, there are some risk/reward type of scenarios and then ones to possibly run far away from.

As always, make sure to check out LeftWingLock for goalie confirmations and let’s begin. 

Teams to Target

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Let’s look at this nine game slate with an open mind. There are some nice scenarios and well rested teams that will be glad to welcome a couple tired and battered franchises. It has the makings of being a moderately high scoring night if you play the right lines and, of course, goalie. That seems like a bit of a problem lately in these six to nine game slates. There does at least seem to be a few good options on this Thursday night.

One thing any Calgary Flames game is going to feature is just pure craziness. While it may be hard to map out which lines are better plays over others, the one common thread is that goaltending may not be such a way to go here. Do you gamble with the Philadelphia second line perhaps while hedging Claude Giroux? It has to be considered at least. It is foolish not to use Johnny Gaudreau and potentially Sam Bennett as a mini-stack. There is some chemistry there and though they do not play all the time together, maybe they strike some gold here. One other thing would be to avoid Dougie Hamilton unless you are the Flyers. His pairing may be one to pick on.

Hello Ottawa line number one. It is nice to see Mike Hoffman paired with Kyle Turris. This still makes a heck of a mini-stack against a Jets team that may be a little tired at least. Curtis Lazar should provide a little bit of salary relief. There really is not a Winnipeg pairing that can truly shut that first line down for an entire game. As Montreal found out the hard way, all it takes is one mistake and Ottawa line one can put it in the back of the net. Now Winnipeg’s line two would avoid the Erik Karlsson pairing and Mark Scheifele could really benefit along with Nikolaj Ehlers and Matthieu Perreault. People do forget that Perreault once had a 17 points in 13 game binge last year. This is a line that could get hot at any time.

The Montreal Canadiens “Dutch Gretzky” line with Dale Weise is such interesting cap relief that some DFS owners have played a mini-stack with Tomas Fleischmann. It is so crazy that it might just work. With John Tavares uncertain at press time, it may be prudent to steer towards what is the makeshift first line of Frans Nielsen and Kyle Okposo as a mini play. Goaltending is questionable with Jaroslav Halak facing Mike Condon. At some point this Montreal goalie has to give up goals, right? If you can find a way to play Brendan Gallagher and at least one of his linemates, it might not be that bad of a plan.

Rolling the Dice

There is no secret that we love Las Vegas and the shifting odds that entice hockey bettors everywhere. However, these numbers and lines can play a role in who we play and who we fade. It is still a little surprising that Tampa Bay is a -180 favorite in Buffalo. Tampa Bay’s new second line with Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov now has Alex Killorn on the left side who has played on the top line in the past with Steven Stamkos so he is more than used to top six play. This trio will avoid the Buffalo top pairing and top offensive line most of the time. The Lightning still have a top six that can flat out scare teams. It is why Vegas likes them here in a game where Buffalo’s goaltending still comes into considerable question.

Los Angeles and Columbus is kind of odd too in the sense that the Kings are a -200 favorite here but with what exactly? The first line is your stack play if you like Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli. After that it is a crap shoot especially if Anze Kopitar does not play. That may change things a little but no matter what the Kings will just relentlessly attack. Columbus will be ready but it is a bit much to ask them to play against such a nasty, hard hitting team.

Lastly, the Boston-Washington game features a lot of potential along with Arizona-Colorado for about the same reasons. Yes Washington is more of a favorite but all four of these teams can play offensively carefree and that is all I care about here. Boston has too many moments where they make the wrong decision. They could suppress shots and still give up four or five goals in a night. Colorado can do much the same thing in an instant. Arizona has not had the greatest goaltending of late from Mike Smith so high scoring potential in both of these games would not shock anyone. Look for sneaky plays here.

Player Rankings

Ranking are price sensitive

 Centers

  1. Sam Bennett–$3500—Calgary Flames
  2. Frans Nielsen–$5000–New York Islanders
  3. Tyler Johnson–$5600–Tampa Bay Lightning
  4. Tomas Plekanec–$6000—Montreal Canadiens
  5. Nicklas Backstrom — $6200– Washington Capitals
  6. Kyle Turris–$6400—Ottawa Senators
  7. Jeff Carter –$5800-Los Angeles Kings
  8. Evgeny Kuznetsov–$5600—Washington Capitals

Wingers

  1. Mike Hoffman—LW–$4800—Ottawa Senators
  2. Alex Killorn—LW–$3800—Tampa Bay Lightning
  3. Tyler Toffoli–RW–$5700–Los Angeles Kings
  4. Brendan Gallagher—RW–$5500—Montreal Canadiens
  5. James Neal–RW–$6300–Nashville Predators
  6. Nikita Kucherov–RW–$5400-Tampa Bay Lightning
  7. Max Pacioretty—LW–$7700—Montreal Canadiens
  8. Ryan O’Reilly—LW–$5100—Buffalo Sabres
  9. Blake Wheeler–RW–$7200–Winnipeg Jets
  10. Joel Ward—RW–$4400—San Jose Sharks

Defenseman

  1. Erik Johnson–$4600—Colorado Avalanche
  2. Erik Karlsson—$6800—Ottawa Senators
  3. Andrei Markov–$5000—Montreal Canadiens
  4. Brent Burns–$6500—San Jose Sharks
  5. Mark Streit – $4600– Philadelphia Flyers
  6. Calvin DeHaan – $3100 – New York Islanders
  7. Ryan Suter – $5400 – Minnesota Wild

Goalie

  1. Mike Condon–$7400–Montreal Canadiens
  2. Steve Mason–$6800–Philadelphia Flyers
  3. Ben Bishop–$7400–Tampa Bay Lightning
  4. Martin Jones–$7300–San Jose Sharks
  5. Jonathan Quick–$7400—Los Angeles Kings
  6. Braden Holtby–$7900–Dallas Stars

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