Fantasy Hockey

NHL Season Review: Dallas Stars

Welcome to NHL season review: a series that will breakdown every NHL team this offseason. You can expect to see new posts all summer, starting from the 30th place team, and finishing with the Stanley Cup champions. With so many changes coming in the offseason, some teams will be improving dramatically, while others will be forced to make some tough decisions for the future. It’s going to be a fun summer of hockey talk, so sit down, hold on tight and enjoy the ride.

Year in Review

 2014-2015 Stats

  • Record: 41-31-10 (92 points)
  • Goals per game: 3.13 (2nd)
  • Goals against per game: 3.13 (27th)
  • Power play: 19% (12th)
  • Penalty kill: 80.7% (19th)
  • Shots per game: 31.2(7th)
  • Shots against per game: 29.9(19th)

The Dallas Stars were one of the NHL’s elite offenses last season, but the same can’t be said for their defense. There’s no question that this team can score goals—finishing second in goals per game—but in order for them to become a playoff team, defense needs to be the top priority moving forward. The Stars have only made the playoffs once in the last five-years, and they didn’t make it very far, getting eliminated in the first round by the Ducks. Unless Dallas finds a way to give up fewer goals per game next season, there won’t be any playoff hockey deep in the heart of Texas.

Only three teams gave up more goals per game than they Dallas Stars last season: the Edmonton Oilers, the Buffalo Sabres and the Arizona Coyotes. See anything in common with those teams? Yes, they all occupied the bottom three spots in the NHL. I’m not saying Dallas will finish 27th next season, but if you think their offense will carry them to the post-season, you might be a Leafs fan. The Stars will be involved in a lot of high-scoring games next season, but that usually isn’t the best way to win hockey games.

According to Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, The Stars finished last season with the 11th best Corsi-For percentage—ahead of the St. Louis Blues, Anaheim Ducks and New York Rangers to name a few. A lack of scoring chances isn’t the problem with this team, it’s really the number of goals they give up. Dallas gave up a whopping 260 goals last season—the third most goals in team history—and scored 261 goals, the most since 2005-06. They finished 19th in shots-against per game, meaning that their problem wasn’t entirely due to their defense being below-average, but their goaltending being absolutely dreadful.

Offseason Game Plan

Let’s start in nets, where the Stars struggled all season with inconsistency from their goalies. Kari Lehtonen finished the season with a 34-17-10 record in 65 games. The fact that he was able to win that many games is largely in part due to his offense bailing him out almost every night. According to puckalytics.com, of the 17 goalies to play over 2500 minutes last season, only Ben Scrivens and Mike Smith finished with a SV% below Lehtonen (91.43%). Not only was his SV% terrible, but also his goals against average was among the leagues highest, tied for 36th at 2.94 GAA. With numbers like that, it shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone that this team was unable to make a run for the post-season.

To make matters even worse, the Stars decided to acquire Antti Niemi from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for a seventh-round pick in the NHL draft. How much better was Niemi than Lehtonen last season? Not much better. Of the same 17 goalies to play over 2500 minutes, Niemi finished two spots ahead of Lentonen on that list (13th, 92.08%). The Sharks were a slightly better team than the Stars defensively last season, but Niemi played a significant role in the Sharks missing the playoffs (if you missed my breakdown of Niemi and the San Jose Sharks last season, you can find that article here). With both goalies locked up for the next three seasons at $10.4 million combined, the Stars officially have the most expensive goaltending duo in the league.

When it comes to their defense, Dallas has one of the weakest blue lines in the NHL. Their top four consists of: Alex Goligoski, John Klingberg, Johnny Oduya and Jason Demers/Jordie Benn. Outside of Klingberg—who had an amazing first season with the team—the rest of their defense is really nothing to be excited about. Goligoski finished second on the team in scoring by a defenseman with 36 points, but after that, the drop off is quite large. The signing of Oduya will help ease the loss of Trevor Daley, but he won’t exactly provide the Stars with a ton of offensive production. As for Demers and Benn, they will need to find a way to be better in their own zone. Both players will be vital parts of the team’s penalty kill and both should see anywhere from 13-15 minutes per night on a regular basis.

Offensively, the Stars are the most dangerous offense in the league on paper (even better than the Penguins). With Tyler Seguin and Art-Ross winner Jamie Benn leading the way, the Stars will always have a chance to win every night. With the addition of Patrick Sharp to the team via trade, Dallas now has a legitimate top-six group that will give opposing teams headaches. Sharp is expected to play on the second line with center Jason Spezza and see some power play time on the first unit.

Looking to rebound after an injury-plagued season is 20-year-old Valeri Nichushkin. Now fully healthy, the expectation is that Nichushkin will get the first crack at sticking with the top line come October. He played all of eight games last season, missing basically the entire season due to a hip and groin injury but is one of the most talented young players in the organization. Barring injuries, the Russian winger could easily finish the season with 40-plus points and be a steal for fantasy owners in deep league drafts.

I’d love to sit here and say that Dallas will make the playoffs next season, but this team still has too many holes to make them playoff contenders. With only $2.3 million left in cap space, it doesn’t look possible for the to add another quality defenseman before the start of the season. There’s no question that this team will finish in the top five in scoring come April, but they could also give up even more goals than they did last season. They should contend for a playoff spot all season long, but until management addresses the defensive side of this team, there will be no playoff hockey in Dallas for many Aprils to come.

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