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College Football DFS: Week 2 – Night Slate

Below are positional rankings for the 12-game night slate of DraftKings contests on Saturday with some commentary along the way. Keep in mind that salary has a huge impact on a player’s ranking. 

If you missed my write-up of the early slate, you can find that here.

Quarterback

  1. Dane Evans – $7,800 – Tulsa
  2. Gunner Kiel – $7,800 – Cincinnati
  3. Cody Kessler – $9,500 – USC
  4. Tanner Mangum – $7,200 – BYU
  5. P.J. Walker – $6,000 – Temple

After throwing for 424 yards last week, Dane Evans and the Golden Hurricane will travel to New Mexico to take on the Lobos in a potentially very high scoring affair. According to the offsite gambling website I use, Tulsa-New Mexico has the highest total of any game today, not just of the evening slate, with an over/under of 75. The only thing that would prevent you from using any of Tulsa’s options is price. But that’s a bigger concern at other positions, and their quarterback is more than reasonably priced. It’s going to be hard to stack with Evans, but we’ll get to that. And whether you stack a receiver with him or not, he probably has to be in your lineup.

Gunner Kiel has no business carrying the same price tag as Evans, but that’s more a reflection of Evans being underpriced than it is of Kiel being overpriced. Not that Kiel is a massive bargain, but he’s maybe $300 or $400 underpriced according to my model. The main reason I have Kiel ranked second is because I have a Cincy receiver ranked tops at that position. Given that Kiel was in the #2-#4 mix for me this week, I ultimately decided on him as my second option because he was the only one of the three guys behind Evans who provided a stack option that I liked.

I mentioned this in my write up of the early slate, but there’s not as much value to be had in this night slate. I think your practical options are going to be very limited. Cody Kessler should have no problem ripping up Idaho in a game in which USC is a 44-point favorite. But how much work is he actually going to see? Given the lack of value overall in this slate, I think it may be a stretch to pay up for Kessler when he could easily see little action in the second half.

If you need to go cheaper with one of your two quarterbacks, Tanner Mangum and P.J. Walker are your options depending on how cheap you need to go. Walker has the better matchup against a Cincinnati team that ranked 87th in pass defense last year according to the S&P ratings. Walker isn’t one to put up big numbers in the air, but a good matchup makes him more likely to throw for 200+ yards than under 200. If he can get to 200, avoid picks, and chip in 50 or so on the ground, he’ll hit value.

As for Mangum, he’ll take over for the injured Taysom Hill. All we’ve seen out of Mangum is 11 passes after Hill went down last week, including the Hail Mary you undoubtedly saw a thousand times. He completed seven of those 11 passes for 111 yards and the score, and he carried the ball five times for 26 yards. Still, it’s obviously a very limited sample size, and the matchup against Boise isn’t great, though it’s not horrible.

Running Back

  1. Jhurell Pressley – $5,100 – New Mexcio
  2. Jahad Thomas – $7,400 – Temple
  3. Tyler Ervin – $4,900 – San Jose State
  4. L.J. Scott – $4,100 – Michigan State
  5. Paul Perkins – $7,900 – UCLA
  6. Leonard Fournette – $8,800 – LSU

Remember that 75-point total I mentioned in the Tulsa-New Mexico game? Well, New Mexico is actually the favorite in that game by four points. That means Jhurell Pressley should be getting carries throughout the game. Pressley worked behind Teriyon Gipson last year, but Gipson is out. And Pressley only got 10 carries last week, but that’s because New Mexico beat Mississippi Valley State 66-0. This week the kid who averaged 9.5 yards per carry and scored 12 touchdowns last year as a backup should take on a lead back role in what should be a total shootout. Must play.

As was the case in the early slate, I’d prefer to pay up for a quarterback than a running back, but there are good high-end RB options in the night slate. Again, I’d rather spend to get Kiel into my lineup or even Kessler if I could make that work. But if you want to pay for a pricier running back, Jahad Thomas is a good option. With Kenneth Harper graduated, the Temple backfield is all Thomas’ as was demonstrated in Week 1 when he carried the ball 29 times for 135 yards and two touchdowns. The matchup with Cincinnati is as good for Thomas as it is for Walker, but the problem is that you might have to use Walker at QB to be able to fit someone like Thomas in. I certainly wouldn’t want to double dip on the Temple offense. If you can fit Thomas in with two QBs other than Walker, I’m all for it.

Another value option at running back is Tyler Ervin. Ervin carried the ball 20 times for 127 yards and three touchdowns last week. Sophomore Thomas Tucker carried the ball 19 times for 74 yards and two scores, but Ervin, the senior, is the lead back here. Ervin was also much more effective than Tucker averaging 6.3 yards per carry to Tucker’s 3.9. The bigger concern I have with Ervin is his matchup against Air Force who ranked sixth against the run last year according to S&P ratings. But I still have him ranked third because I don’t think there is any way you could pay up for Temple’s Thomas and one of the other expensive backs I have ranked. The question in my mind is really whether you’re pairing Pressley with Thomas or Ervin/another cheap option.

That said, there’s not much point in me ranking Paul Perkins and Leonard Fournette. They’re both great, and they could both do big things. But I like Thomas about as much as them, and he’s noticeably cheaper, so I see no point in paying more for Perkins or Fournette.

If you want to go cheap at your second running back spot but don’t feel safe with Ervin in his matchup against Air Force, Michigan State’s L.J. Scott is an option. Michgan State has a three-way committe at running back right now with three Spartan backs carrying the ball between nine and 13 times last week. Scott was tied with Madre London for the team lead in carries with 13. Madre was the back who found the end zone and did so twice, but Scott was more effective with his work averaging 5.9 yards per carry to London’s 4.5. London’s touchdowns obviously make Scott much less attractive, but Scott is also $2,800 cheaper than London this week. You could do worse than gambling on Scott against an Oregon team that ranked 52nd against the run last year according to the S&P ratings.

Wide Receiver

  1. Shaq Washington – $5,100 – Cincinnati
  2. Dezmon Epps – $5,400 – Idaho
  3. Tyler Winston – $5,800 – San Jose State
  4. Devonte Boyd – $6,600 – UNLV
  5. Keyarris Garrett – $6,000 – Tulsa
  6. Aaron Burbridge – $5,000 – Michigan State
  7. Fred Ross – $3,900 – Mississippi State
  8. Travin Dural – $4,600 – LSU
  9. Juju Smith-Schuster – $7,000 – USC

Let’s start by discussing the receivers that could be stacked with the quarterbacks ranked above. First, as mentioned, Shaq Washington’s ranking here is what ultimately pushed me to rank Kiel second at QB. Cincinnati has a wide array of receivers, but Washington led the team in receptions easily last week with seven after leading the team in receptions last year. He’s definitely Kiel’s favorite target. If there’s one knock on him it’s that his size doesn’t lend itself to red zone production, but with DK being a PPR site, his role as Kiel’s favorite target sets a good high floor. But the main thing to like here is Shaq’s price, which is nowhere near the top end.

Next up, Juju Smith-Schuster. Juju had an impressive touchdown against Arkansas State last week, and the kid is going to do other impressive things this year to be sure. But, as mentioned with Kessler, how much work is he really going to see in this game where USC is a massive favorite? He may well rip off a huge play, but he kind of needs to rip off two to be worth his price tag given the likelihood that he doesn’t see much volume in this one. Given the lack of value in this slate, stacking Kessler and Juju would be very, very difficult to do.

And finally, let’s discuss Tulsa. Keevan Lucas is an absolute monster. He may be one of my favorite college football players, and I love him for delivering last week when I labeled him an “automatic play” with 10 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns. The problem, of course, is that his big performance caused his price tag to jump $1,100 this week. At $8,900, Lucas becomes very hard to fit into a lineup. He’s unquestionably the top receiver of the slate, but I really don’t know that his price tag is worth it. Were he in the low eights, I’d find a way to make it work, but at this price point I just can’t.

The other Tulsa option is Keyarris Garrett. Garrett did plenty of damage himself last week with five catches for 163 yards. The senior was second on the team last year in all categories with 47 catches, 698 yards and five touchdowns. So he’s good, he’s just not great and is suffocated somewhat by Lucas’ greatness. At $6,000, he’s absolutely not a value, but he is almost exactly appropriately priced according to my model. Normally I want players who represent value to some degree, but I’ll make an exception for Garrett. I want Evans in my lineup, and I want as much exposure as I can get to Tulsa-New Mexico, so I’ll find a spot for Garrett.

Aside from the stack options, there are a wealth of good options at receiver. Dezmon Epps caught 15 passes for 160 yards in Week 1, and the Idaho offense should be throwing a ton playing from behind against USC. Tyler Winston from San Jose State has a better macthup than Ervin at running back as Air Force only ranked 60th against the pass last year as opposed to sixth against the run. Devonte Boyd started his sophomore season with a bang last week catching five passes for 107 yards and a touchdown. UNLV should be throwing plenty playing from behind against UCLA. And Aaron Burbridge cleared the 100-yard mark in Week 1 with a potential shootout coming up against Oregon. I’d focus on Epps, Winston and Boyd with a lean toward the cheaper guys given the lack of value in this slate.

But speaking of value, if you need it at receiver, I’d turn to Fred Ross or Travin Dural. Ross scored five touchdowns in his first real action as a sophomore last year, and he opened his junior season with five catches for 75 yards last week. His matchup this week with LSU is far less than ideal, but he’s cheap enough to be considered. You’re going to have to find salary relief somewhere, and Ross is an option.

On the other side of that game, Dural is also an option. The matchup isn’t great for Dural either, but it might be slightly better than Ross’ matchup. Dural is a real boom-or-bust, deep threat type guy as he averaged 20 yards per catch last year. But, to be honest, he’ll bust more than he hits. That said, he hit against Mississippi State last year with six catches for 124 yards. That doesn’t mean a ton to me, but with a decent price tag, he could be worth a gamble.

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