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College Football DFS: Week 4 – Night Slate

Below are positional rankings for the 11-game night slate of DraftKings contests on Saturday with some commentary along the way. Keep in mind that salary has a huge impact on a player’s ranking. 

Matchup Chart

Below is a matchup chart I create each week that includes information from Vegas and information on each team’s opponent in terms of their defensive strength. The defensive numbers are rankings from Football Outsiders’ S&P+ ratings. One thing to note with the defensive ranks is that a team’s total defense rank is schedule adjusted, but the rushing and passing ranks are not adjusted. All the info is color coded as follows from most favorable to the offense to least favorable: purple-blue-green-yellow-orange-red-burgundy.

Quarterback

  1. Chad Kelly – $7,900 – Ole Miss
  2. Sean White – $5,200 – Auburn
  3. Kyle Allen – $7,700 – Texas A&M
  4. Josh Rosen – $7,600 – UCLA

There are five quarterbacks playing on this slate that are more expensive than anyone I have ranked here. The most expensive of them is Oregon’s Vernon Adams, but I don’t trust him with a finger injury that kept him out last week and that is reportedly lingering to some degree. Two others are USC’s Cody Kessler And Arizona’s Anu Solomon who have matchups that I’m not wild about. There’s also Dak Prescott, but he’s the second most expensive and Mississippi State has a below average projected team total for this slate.

For all those reasons, Chad Kelly is probably as expensive as I’m going in the night slate. Kelly has nine passing touchdowns to just one interception through three games, and he has a rushing touchdown in each game so far. He threw for 341 yards and scored four total touchdowns against Alabama last week, so he seems almost matchup-proof. Ole Miss also has the highest team total of this slate according to Vegas, so there’s plenty to like with Kelly at this price point.

Despite liking Kelly, I was pretty tempted to rank Sean White tops at the position. White will take over for Jeremy Johnson under center for Auburn, so we have a dirt cheap starting quarterback available to us this week. Auburn will face Mississippi State who ranks 53rd in total defense and 77th in pass defense, so the matchup is pretty good, even though the matchup would have to be pretty horrendous to ignore White at this price point. Trent Dilfer thinks White is going to be pretty good, but that means about nothing probably. Long story short, it won’t take much for White to hit value.

Kyle Allen was very impressive last week against Nevada throwing for four touchdowns, rushing for another, throwing for 270 yards and rushing for 55 more. His matchup is solid this week against an Arkansas team that ranks 77th in total defense and 80th in pass defense. If for whatever reason you don’t like Kelly or if you can’t trust White, Allen is a very good third choice.

As for Rosen, good lord he’d be hard to trust after his performance against BYU last week. But he does have a pretty solid matchup this week against Arizona who ranks 94th in total defense and 126th (out of 128) in pass defense. UCLA also has the sixth highest team total of the slate. Paul Perkins will get his, but with a 34.5-point team total, there should be enough to go around for Rosen. That said, there are more trustworthy options.

Running Back

  1. Tyler Ervin – $7,600 – San Jose State
  2. Justin Jackson – $6,700 – Northwestern
  3. Dare Ogunbowale – $4,700 – Wisconsin
  4. Paul Perkins – $8,400 – UCLA
  5. Nick Wilson – $7,500 – Arizona

It’s a good thing there’s salary relief to be had at quarterback today because there’s some money to be spent on backs. The guys that aren’t too expensive are Tyler Ervin and Justin Jackson. Ervin has 341 yards through three games with six touchdowns and a 6.4 yards per carry average. He has also chipped in 12 receptions, which adds a little value in DK’s PPR format. He also has a solid matchup against Fresno who ranks 88th in total defense and 96th in run defense.

Speaking of good matchups, Northwestern’s Jackson has a good one against Ball State who ranks 105th in total defense with game flow likely in Jackson’s favor with NW being a 20.5-point favorite. Jackson is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry, but he’s getting the ball more than enough to make up for his lack of efficiency. He has 85 carries through three games which has him averaging about 110 yards per game despite the 3.9 yards per carry. Volume will work, and he might be more efficient in this matchup.

I will say that Wisconsin provides the one spot to get some salary relief at running back. Taiwan Deal ($5,300) and Dare Ogunbowale ($4,700) have split the work the last two weeks in Corey Clement’s absence, and Clement will out be awhile longer. Deal and Ogunbowale each have 30 carries over the last two weeks, with Ogunbowale racking up 214 yards (a total that includes 27 receiving yards) and Deal managing just 129 yards. Deal has scored three times compared to two for Ogunbowale, but I’ll lean toward Ogunbowale because he has been more effective and is cheaper.

If you can afford it, Paul Perkins could have another monster day. I say ‘another’ because he has 394 yards from scrimmage combined in his last two games. The matchup is probably better for his quarterback, but it’s still pretty good for Perkins with Arizona having a below average run defense. If you can afford Perkins, get him in there.

Wide Receiver

  1. Johnny Jackson – $3,000 – Arizona
  2. Christian Kirk – $6,000 – Texas A&M
  3. Quincy Adeboyejo – $5,300 – Ole Miss
  4. Cody Core – $5,400 – Ole Miss
  5. Ricardo Louis – $4,100 – Auburn
  6. Jordan Payton – $5,700 – UCLA

Let’s start with Johnny Jackson. He’s not nearly one of the most talented receivers of the slate or anything, but he is the minimum price for no discernible reason. He has a touchdown in each of Arizona’s first three games, and he caught eight passes for 101 yards in Week 1. Admittedly, the last two weeks haven’t been that great absent the touchdowns with Jackson recording just five catches for only 42 yards. But, again, he literally could not be any cheaper. I don’t know how he’s not someone you automatically plug into a flex spot.

After Jackson, we’ve got a bunch of receivers who will have the ball thrown to them by quarterbacks that I ranked above. Christian Kirk is a phenomenal athlete and has been one of the players I’ve enjoyed watching the most so far this season. He has at least 100 yards or a touchdown catch in each of his first three collegiate games. Even if I don’t end up using Allen, I’d have a hard time passing on Kirk.

For Ole Miss, Quincy Adeboyejo and Cody Core are both options. Laquon Treadwell is probably the name more people are familiar with among the Ole Miss receiving corps, but Adeboyejo and Core both have more yards and more touchdowns than Treadwell this year. Core has more yardage but Adeboyejo has more touchdowns, so the two are tough to distinguish. I lean towards the touchdowns of Adeboyjo, but it’s honestly tough to choose one or the other.

If you’re rolling with White, you should definitely stack him with a receiver because he’s more of a passer than a guy who is going to pull it down and run. Ricardo Lewis leads the team in receptions and yardage so far, though his totals aren’t overly impressive. But the shaky play of Jeremy Johnson surely contributed to that, and if White plays well, Louis’ production should improve. He could be an excellent value at this price point.

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