Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: April 26, 2015
Good morning Fantasy Fixers! Another day, another game at Coors Field (which makes my job just a little bit easier). Below I’ve got a discussion on today’s starting pitching slate as well as stack options and player rankings for the whole Sunday slate of baseball.
Typically I luck out and am presented with a bunch of aces on Sunday. Today, however, that is not the case. Jake Arrieta ($9,000) and Carlos Carrasco ($9,000) are tied for the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but both are a tad risky, for slightly different reasons. I’m not worried about Arrieta facing the Reds’ offense, but there is an extreme negative park shift against him today, as Great American Ball Park is a hitters’ paradise. Carrasco contains elite strikeout upside, but he’ll be facing the Detroit Tigers offense today. Make note, Carrasco also left his start on Tuesday with tightness, and was limited to just five innings of work. Barring any news on either of these fronts, I prefer Arrieta over Carrasco in cash games, but both are fine GPP plays.
Lance Lynn ($8,800) has a slightly depressed price and one of the most favorable matchups against Milwaukee today. Lynn has a 10.38 K/9 this season and Milwaukee is without some of their best bats. Again, Lynn is facing a negative park shift headed to Milwaukee and his FB% is alarming, but I don’t expect this Brewers offense to touch him up too badly. I think he’s a pretty solid option in cash game lineups.
Perhaps the most targeted cash game pitcher today will be left-hander Drew Pomeranz ($6,600). Pomeranz has good strikeout potential (9.0 K/9) and the Astros lead the league in K% as a team, striking out nearly a quarter of their at-bats. The good news for Pomeranz is that the Astros team is receiving a negative park-shift away from Minute Maid Park. The bad news is that the Astros as a team do much more damage against left-handed pitchers and they’ll feature a mostly right-handed lineup today. Because of his price-point, I like Pomeranz as a secondary option in cash games today, but, due to his inability to work deep into games and the Astros potential against left-handers, I’ll be staying away from him in GPPs.
Don’t sleep on Chris Archer ($8,900) who is becoming a thoroughbred number one starter in Tampa Bay. Archer possess great strikeout upside and will be facing a Blue Jays offense that is experiencing a negative park shift away from the Rogers Centre. Couple in the fact that Jose Bautista might be sitting, and Archer picks up an extra point or two of value.
As I mentioned above, there is a game in Coors Field today. Every bat that squares off against either Tim Lincecum or Tyler Matzek is in play. Be wary about forcing too much Buster Posey ($4,800) or Troy Tulowitzki ($5,800) into your lineups, as this feels like a day where they might take a seat. Of course that is just speculative, so don’t completely erase all exposure, and don’t forget, DraftKings allows you to late swap should they not be in the lineup. My favorites from this game come from the outfield. All three of the Colorado left-handed hitters (Corey Dickerson, Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez) are in play. Also, the Giants right-handers, preferably Angel Pagan ($4,800) and Justin Maxwell ($3,600) are excellent options.
If you’re looking to get exposure away from Coors Field, look to Camden Yards. Wade Miley and Bud Norris square off in what should be quite a slugfest, yielding a total of 8.5. Adam Jones ($4,800) becomes one of the best outfield plays on the day as he mashes left-handers (.434 wOBA and .260 ISO against left-handers last year). Steve Pearce ($3,800) should get a start against the southpaw and Manny Machado ($4,400) also makes for a decent play at third.
David Ortiz ($4,700) leads the way for the Red Sox against Bud Norris. He’s followed by Hanley Ramirez ($4,900) who carries SS eligibility and Mookie Betts ($4,400) who possess a lot of tournament upside due to his stolen base and homerun potential. All the players mentioned from this game hold cash game and GPP viability.
Furthermore, the young Cubs lineup squares off with Anthony DeScalifini in a huge park shift in their favor today. Anthony Rizzo ($5,400), Dexter Fowler ($4,800), Chris Coghlan ($3,400) and Miguel Montero ( $3,300) will be the guys to target with the platoon advantage against DeScalifini. However, all the other Cubs possess plenty of upside as well. Kris Bryant ($5,000), Jorge Soler ($4,500) and Starlin Castro ($4,300) all round out a solid top to bottom stack option that will be off a lot of people’s radars today with a game at Coors Field.
Don’t forget about Sunday Night Baseball at Yankee Stadium, a great place for hitters. Lucas Duda ($3,800) gets a great park shift and is an excellent tournament option against Nathan Eovaldi. His playing mates, Curtis Granderson ($4,300) and Daniel Murphy ($3,900) make for solid tournament options as well.
Jonathan Niese will take away the platoon advantage for a handful of Yankee hitters, but I’m not overly concerned about that. Niese has very little strikeout potential and doesn’t carry an extreme split to either side of the plate. Mark Teixeira ($4,500) has been red hot and Alex Rodriguez ($4,300) might join him tonight.
- Buster Posey – $4,800 – San Francisco Giants
- Miguel Montero – $3,300 – Chicago Cubs
- Nick Hundley/Mike McKenry – $3,300/$3,700 – Colorado Rockie
- Paul Goldschmidt – $5,400 – Arizona Diamondbacks
- David Ortiz – $4,700 – Boston Red Sox
- Anthony Rizzo – $5,400 – Chicago Cubs
- Justin Morneau – $3,900 – Colorado Rockies
- Matt Duffy – $3,700 – San Francisco Giants
- Robinson Cano – $4,700 – Seattle Mariners
- Jose Altuve – $4,600 – Houston Astros
- Troy Tulowitzki – $5,800 – Colorado Rockies
- Hanley Ramirez – $4,900 – Boston Red Sox
- Starlin Castro – $4,300 – Chicago Cubs
- Evan Longoria – $4,100 – Tampa Bay Rays
- Adrian Beltre – $4,200 – Texas Rangers
- Alex Rodriguez -$4,300 – New York Yankees
- Kris Bryant – $5,000 – Chicago Cubs
- Corey Dickerson – $4,800 – Colorado Rockies
- Carlos Gonzalez – $4,300 – Colorado Rockies
- Angel Pagan -$4,800 – San Francisco Giants
- Justin Maxwell -$3,600 – San Francisco Giants
- Adam Jones – $4,800 – Baltimore Orioles
- Mike Trout – $5,500 – Los Angeles Angels
- Jake Arrieta – $9,000 – Chicago Cubs
- Lance Lynn – $8,800 – St. Louis Cardinals
- Carlos Carrasco – $9,000 – Cleveland Indians
- Chris Archer – $8,900 – Tampa Bay Rays
- Drew Pomeranz -$6,600 – Oakland Athletics