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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: April 27, 2015

This is the cure for your case of ‘The Mondays’. It’s TheFantasyFix DFS breakdown. It’s a look at the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Monday’s 12-game evening slate on DraftKings. The Athletics and Angels have the day off, and we have two games that start at 6:05pm EST (Kansas City @ Cleveland and Toronto @ Boston), taking them out of the equation for all of the major contests tonight. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position. If you have any question prior to game-tme, find me on Twitter @RyNoonan.

Pitching Perspective

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

David Price ($10,400) leads the way today and faces the Twins in Minnesota. Price is coming off of a terrible start against the Yankees, but the snow was clearly an issue. He wasn’t able to grip the ball and it zapped his typically elite command. I like Price to bounce back big time against a Twins team that enters play with a .281 wOBA against left-handers, none near the quality of Price.

The Astros and Padres square off in San Diego, and both Collin McHugh ($8,700) and James Shields ($9,600) are in play today. I prefer McHugh, so the price break makes it an easy choice. McHugh takes the hill today with a pristine 1.77 FIP, and he’s minimizing damage with an elite ground ball rate of 54.7-percent. The Padres have been statistically average against right-handed pitching, but McHugh is far from average. I have no problem with the other upper-tier starters, Cole Hamels and John Lackey, who are going head to head tonight in St. Louis but I prefer McHugh.

The projections like Brett Anderson ($6,000) today, but I can’t advise it. I rostered Anderson last time he faced the Giants, and I believe the thinking was sound. That’s why he’s a good value again, because the Giants are left-handed heavy and the park factor is plus. It looks like a great option, but the system hasn’t begun adjusting based on in-season stats yet. We’re approaching some concrete stabilization rates which will allow us to better discern what we’ve seen in 2015.

I really like what we’re seeing from Jimmy Nelson ($6,900). The new spike-curve is a real weapon for Nelson, one that’s providing an out pitch against left-handers. It’s made his strike out rate jump, and his walks are down as well. His low batting average-against is supported by his top two hard hit rate to-date (via ESPN and Mark Simon). The pedigree is there for Nelson to be legit.

Chase Anderson ($5,400) is another young right-handed starter that’s going under the radar a bit. He’s a risky play today, facing a Rockies club that can give clubs fits. This is in Arizona and not Coors, but Arizona was second to Coors in run per game last season.

Stack Options

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

We have a number of places to go today for stack purposes. The Tigers are off to a strong start offensively, and are in Minnesota against Tommy Milone. The right-handed bats of Detroit, which can be all of the starters today, are worth a look. The power upside of Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes is expensive, but could pay dividends.

The Nationals are worth a look today, but stick with their righties. Eric Stults, the Braves left-handed starter, is allowing right-handed bats to slug .556 against him this season. This group will cost you a lot less than the Tigers stack, too. Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Ian Desmond, and Wilson Ramos.

The Orioles are hanging up some crooked numbers lately. Today they get the White Sox and Hector Noesi, who’s allowing 14.9-percent of hitters to walk this season. That’s one of the worst in the league so far, a bad combination against a Orioles club that’s hitting up and down the lineup. Wait and see how they construct their lineup tonight and get a share.

The Diamondbacks are a nice under the radar stack today, because their seasonal stats against left-handed pitchers don’t jump off the page. In a similar sense to the Orioles, it’s difficult to recommend a specific stack without seeing how the lineup looks, but focus on the top of the order right-handed sticks. I at least want A.J. Pollock and the power duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo.

Player Rankings

 Catcher

1. Wilson Ramos– ($3,700) Washington Nationals

2. Caleb Joesph- ($3,200) Baltimore Orioles

3. Miguel Montero– ($3,300) Chicago Cubs

4. Brian McCann– ($3,900) New York Yankees

First Base

1. Adrian Gonzalez– ($3,900) Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Paul Goldschmidt– ($5,700) Arizona Diamondbacks

3. Mark Trumbo -($4,300) Arizona Diamondbacks

4. Miguel Cabrera– ($5,100) Detroit Tigers

5. Ryan Zimmerman– ($4,500) Washington Nationals

Second Base

1. Ian Kinsler -($4,300) Detroit Tigers

2. Tim Beckham– ($3,200) Tampa Bay Rays

3. Jose Altuve– ($4,000) Houston Astros

4. Aaron Hill – ($3,800) Arizona Diamondbacks

Third Base

1. Miguel Cabrera -($5,100) Detroit Tigers

2. Luis Valbuena – ($3,600) Houston Astros

3. Josh Harrison – ($4,300) Pittsburgh Pirates

4. Nick Castellanos– ($3,700) Detroit Tigers  Not in the lineup.

Shortstop

1. Ian Desmond– ($4,500) Washington Nationals

2. Dee Gordon-($4,300) Miami Marlins

3. Adeiny Hechavarria – ($3,800) Miami Marlins

4. Tim Beckham– ($3,200) Tampa Bay Rays

Outfield

1. Jayson Werth– ($4,300) Washington Nationals

2. Adam Jones– ($4,800) Baltimore Orioles

3. Nelson Cruz– ($5,100) Seattle Mariners

4. Yoenis Cespedes-($4,500) Detroit Tigers

5. A.J. Pollock– ($4,300) Arizona Diamondbacks

6. Andre Ethier- ($2,800) Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting Pitcher

1. David Price-($10,400) Detroit Tigers

2. Collin McHugh– ($8,700) Houston Astros

3. Jimmy Nelson– ($6,900) Milwaukee Brewers

4. John Lackey– ($8,000) St. Louis Cardinals

5. Cole Hamels– ($9,800) Philadelphia Phillies

6. James Shields– ($9,600) San Diego Padres

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