Front Office

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: August 30, 2015

We’re coming to the close of another full week of baseball action and the summer is quickly fading away. Below though, as usual, I’ve included a discussion on the pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as an individual set of player rankings.

If you haven’t signed up at DraftKings, be sure to do so now!

Forecast

There are chances of thunderstorms near the back half of the games in Atlanta and Cleveland, but otherwise the rest of the slate is all clear.

Pitching Perspective

Oh, boy. Today, despite a full slate of games, there are not many pitching options to choose from.

Perhaps the best option of the day will make you wait all day long to see him pitch. Jake Arrieta takes on the Dodgers in Sunday Night Baseball, looking to extend his major league leading win total. Arrieta has been dominant, but quietly below the media attention that surrounds other big name stars. He strikes out more than a hitter per inning, doesn’t issue many walks and has pitched to an xFIP of 2.79. The Dodgers have been one of the best teams in the league this year against right-handed pitchers (3rd in team wOBA against righties) but not too many are the caliber of Arrieta. I’m okay with moving off of him due to price, but don’t shy away because of the matchup.

A couple thousand dollars cheaper than Arrieta drops in Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has been a stressful DFS commodity for the last year or so, but I love his prospects against the abysmal Marlins lineup. Vegas has the Marlins implied run total hovering around 2.8 runs, and Strasburg is a big favorite. While Strasburg has seen a dip in his swinging strike rate this season, he’s still producing at a quality of level in terms of fantasy production. The strikeout upside is still there, as he’s striking out more than a hitter per inning and his salary is very accessible today. You’re not going to find a better spot to use him, slide him in your rosters.

The last really exciting pitching option today is Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard showed what makes him such a viable daily fantasy option in his last time out, when he was shaky, and gave up a few earned runs, but struck out enough hitters to eclipse his value. His matchup today draws the Boston Red Sox away from Fenway Park and into a negative park shift at Citi Field in New York. The bad news is, the Red Sox are near the very bottom of the league in terms of K%, drawing down Syndergaard’s upside just a little bit. However, overall he’s a strong favorite, and much like Strasburg, his salary is accessible. Don’t fear rostering him.

If you’re looking for an even cheaper option today, try to ride the Nathan Eovaldi train. Eovaldi has always had really good raw stuff, but might just finally be putting it together for all of us to see. Aside from the uptick in BB/9, Eovaldi has slightly increased both his ground ball rate and strikeout rate for the positive. He’s still not sitting down guys at the level you’d like to see to rule him as a great upside pitcher, but given his price ($7.4K) you have a little more room for error. He gets a great matchup with the Atlanta Braves on the road and is a sizable favorite.

 

Stack Options

  1. The Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays offense is absurd, and I should essentially just copy and paste them into the top spot every single slate. They’re at home, against Alfredo Simon, and that’s really all you need to know. Try to grab value in this game like Justin Smoak or Ben Revere to allow yourself to pay up for the big bats like Tulowitzki, Donaldson and Bautista.
  2. The Washington Nationals – The Nats don’t stand out as one of the highest team totals of the day against Brad Hand, but they’re built to take down soft-tossing lefties. The top of their order is all primarily right-handed, and the lone lefty is Bryce Harper. Hand is a ground ball pitcher, but when he does give up flyballs, they are not staying in the infield (2.9% infield fly ball rate) giving us a better chance at chasing the home run.
  3. Tie: Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers – Both of these teams are similar stack options on given days. They provide a lot of usable value near the top of their orders and pack a mean punch in the middle. Look to use guys like Ender Inciarte and David Peralta from Arizona, and Shin-Soo Choo and Mitch Moreland to get exposure to Texas. Both of these teams have implied run totals approaching five runs, meaning you’ll want some exposure to both in your games today.

Player Rankings

Catcher

  1. Russell Martin -$3,600 – Toronto Blue Jays
  2. Jonathan Lucroy -$4,000 – Milwaukee Brewers
  3. Wellington Castillo -$3,800 – Arizona Diamondbacks

First Basemen

  1. Prince Fielder -$4,100 – Texas Rangers
  2. Edwin Encarnacion -$4,800 – Toronto Blue Jays
  3. Jose Abreu -$5,100 – Chicago White Sox

Second Basemen

  1. Jason Kipnis -$4,600 – Cleveland Indians
  2. Jose Altuve -$4,400 – Houston Astros
  3. Anthony Rendon -$3,700 – Washington Nationals

Shortstop

  1. Troy Tulowitzki -$4,700 – Toronto Blue Jays
  2. Jung-ho Kang -$3,700 – Pittsburgh Pirates
  3. Ian Desmond -$3,800 – Washington Nationals

Third Basemen

  1. Josh Donaldson -$6,200 – Toronto Blue Jays
  2. Adrian Beltre -$4,000 – Texas Rangers
  3. Jake Lamb -$3,400 – Arizona Diamondbacks

Outfield

  1. Jose Bautista -$5,800 – Toronto Blue Jays
  2. Ender Inciarte -$3,700 – Arizona Diamondbacks
  3. Shin-Soo Choo -$3,800 -Texas Rangers

Starting Pitchers

  1. Jake Arrieta -$12,400 – Chicago Cubs
  2. Stephen Strasburg -$10,000 – Washington Nationals
  3. Noah Syndergaard -$10,400 – New York Mets
  4. Nathan Eovaldi -$7,700 – New York Yankees
  5. Jaime Garcia -$11,000 – St. Louis Cardinals

 

Previous post

Fantasy Baseball Final: August 29th

Next post

Fantasy Baseball Final: August 30, 2015