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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: July 26, 2016 – DraftKings & FanDuel Analysis

Below we’ve got breakdowns for each game of Tuesday’s 15-game evening slate on DraftKings and FanDuel along with player rankings, and a projections/research chart. Any discussion of a hitter’s stats date back to the beginning of 2015 unless otherwise noted.

Game Breakdowns

Rockies @ Orioles

Manny Machado’s price and SS eligibility continue to call to me. He’s come out of his slump lately with a five-game hitting streak, so there’s no reason to be hesitant about him anymore. His 143 wRC+ vs. RHP shows he’s just fine without the platoon advantage, and the opposing starter, RHP Chad Bettis, has had a harder time keeping balls in the yard against right-handers than left. Bettis has also been about the same at home and on the road, so no need to fear that his issues are only Coors-related.

As for Colorado bats, Trevor Story just finished a homestand with six home runs. Yeah, he went 0-for-4 last night in Baltimore, but it’s not like Baltimore isn’t pretty hitter-friendly in its own right. He may be too pricey on DK to use away from home, but at $3,600 on FD he’s quite appealing. And then Carlos Gonzalez is always appealing against a right-hander and CarGo has a seven-game hitting streak going. He’s priced plenty reasonably on both sites.

Mariners @ Pirates

Anytime Seattle faces a left-handed starter, Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez almost have to be considered. Cruz’s wRC+ vs. LHP is 192 and Gute’s is 151. They’ll face Francisco Liriano who has been a bit better of late but who still has a 4.65 SIERA this season with worse numbers against lefties. Cruz is pricey but worth spending on whenever you can. And Gutierrez is quite the bargain on DK.

Felix Hernandez is also a tad interesting in this one, though his first start back from the DL was not a good one. He can’t be trusted in cash games, and this matchup with Pittsburgh isn’t even a good one. But Felix at $8,600 on DK just catches your eye since it’s atypical to see him priced like that, though the reasons for it are obvious. If you wanted to take a shot on him in a GPP on DK, no one could fault you.

Padres @ Blue Jays

Of the starters in action today, Andrew Cashner is one of five that have been pitching very well over the last 30 days or so. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays are a dangerous matchup, especially in Toronto as opposed to San Diego. I’d say Cashner could make sense as a cheap GPP option, but there are plenty of cheap pitching options tonight. One of which, on FD anyway, is his opponent, Marcus Stroman. Stroman has been pitching well of late as well with a 67 percent ground ball rate and a 3.11 SIERA in his last five starts. The Padres have an 82 wRC+vs. RHP and a 24.6 percent K%. According to my own little matchup stat, they’re one of two superb matchups for pitchers today. Toronto is a huge favorite in this one, so lean more toward Stroman in cash games.

As for Jays bats, Michael Saunders is probably the best way to get exposure since he’s the only one of the bunch priced half decently, with his better price tag being on DK. He also has a 217 wRC+ in the last seven days. Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson seem to stay in a perpetual state of swinging it well, and both have been good since the Break. Encarnacion is close to appropriately priced on DK, but Donaldson is very pricey on both sites.

Phillies @ Marlins

Christian Yelich has been hot in July and even hotter since the Break, but his salary has pushed up to the point where he’s not much of a value outside of an excellent matchup. He has a decent matchup today with RHP Jerad Eickhoff, but not an excellent one. Other than Yelich, no one stands out in this one.

Nationals @ Indians

Danny Salazar is another one of those five pitchers in action today who has been pitching very well recently. His K-BB% is over 20%, and his SIERA is 3.08. Most importantly, his walk rate, which is 10.3% for the season is 3.8% in his last four starts. There’s not a lot of value in his price tags, and Washington doesn’t strikeout a ton vs. RHP. But Salazar is priced about right on DK and Cleveland is a -140 favorite, so Salazar could be a cash game option there.

The only bats to consider here are Daniel Murphy and Mike Napoli. Murphy has a 195 wRC+ in July and a 141 wRC+ vs. RHP. His recent play has his price tags up, but he’s close to reasonably priced on FD if you like him. As for Napoli, he has a 142 wRC+ vs. LHP, though Gio Gonzalez doesn’t have huge splits issues. Nap is pricey on both sites but is perhaps a GPP option.

Cardinals @ Mets

Just a couple bats worth a look here. First, Wilmer Flores has a 168 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 203 wRC+ in July. He’ll get LHP Jamie Garcia tonight, and Flores is priced quite nicely on FD at only $2,600. And for the Cards, Kolten Wong could be a punt play at second base if in the lineup. The Cards haven’t even been playing him against all righties recently, which doesn’t bode well for his future. But if you need a punt at 2B, check to see if Wong plays.

Tigers @ Red Sox

The Red Sox have a 120 wRC+ vs. RHP and get RH Mike Pelfrey today. What else do you need to know? The best way to get exposure to them in cash games on FD is Jackie Bradley, Jr. who is inexplicably priced at only 3K. On DK, feel free to just pay up for Big Papi in cash games since cheap pitching won’t be hard to come by tonight. Right-handers like Mookie Betts and Dustin Pedroia are just fine without the platoon advantage, but their price tags aren’t all that appealing. In GPPs, feel free to stack, but it’s probably a better idea to be more contrarian.

Behind the paywall you’ll find breakdowns of the remaining games, player rankings, suggested lineups and my projections/research chart.

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Cubs @ White Sox

Jose Abreu is the rare guy better without the platoon advantage, but his numbers against RHP are much better than his numbers against LHP. Kyle Hendricks is a tough matchup for righties, but Abreu could be a sneaky GPP play with a cheap price tag. As for Cubs, I’d stick to the big bats with guys like Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist really struggling. James Shields has a 4.59 xFIP and 1.86 HR/9 vs. LHP dating back to last season, so Anthony Rizzo is in a good spot. However, Rizzo is closer to being worth paying for on DK, which is also where you’d rather pay up for Papi.

As for Hendricks, his 0.74 ERA over his last four starts is impressive, but his 4.25 SIERA is worrisome. He’s the type of guy who generates weak contact to the point that his ERA can outperform his peripherals, but a 94.2 percent strand rate is really what’s driving his recent success. All that said, Hendricks basically never bombs and the matchup with the White Sox is above average. The Cubs should be a healthy favorite, so consider Hendricks in cash on FD where his price is better.

A’s @ Rangers

Nick Martinez will take Kyle Lohse’s spot in Texas’ rotation which is like replacing a brain tumor with a slightly smaller, yet still inoperable, brain tumor. At $2,900 on FD, Josh Reddick is in a nice spot against Martinez with Reddick owning a 136 wRC+ vs. RHP and a 134 wRC+ in the last seven days. Plus, this game is in Texas, not Oakland. Other Oakland lefties like Stephen Vogt and Yonder Alonso are options, though Vogt is DTD and Alonso is…Alonso. On the other side of the game Sonny Gray faces a Rangers team that strikes out less than average, so pass on him in the hitter-friendly park. But Texas has a 92 wRC+ vs. RHP, so they’re not the most attractive options themselves. Lefties like Rougned Odor or Mitch Moreland would be the way to get Texas exposure if you want it.

Diamondbacks @ Brewers

There could be a stack option here with Milwaukee bats. They’ll face LHP Patrick Corbin who has a 7.50 ERA (5.60 SIERA) in his last five starts. Corbin also has a 1.33 HR/9 vs. RHH dating back to last season, which is important because Milwaukee leans righty-heavy in the linuep. Ryan Braun has a 160 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 194 wRC+ in the last seven days. And switch-hitter Jonathan Villar is better against RHP with a 133 wRC+ vs. RHP. Both guys are very pricey, but Braun would be worth paying up for. Villar is best reserved for a Milwaukee stack. To fill out the stack you’d want to include Chris Carter and Jonathan Lucroy.

Yankees @ Astros

Here’s another stack option. CC Sabathia’s projected FIP v. RHH from here on out is 5.08, and Sabathia has been struggling with a 7.04 ERA (4.90 SIERA) in his last five starts. Jose Altuve and George Springer have both been hot and both have wRC+’s vs. LHP over 160. Carlos Correa and Evan Gattis have also been scorching hot, though they lack the great numbers Springer and Altuve have vs. LHP. Call-up Alex Bregman is also a decent value option on DK if he’s in the lineup again tonight. Jake Marisnick could also be a punt play in the OF if he’s in the lineup against a lefty.

Braves @ Twins

Let’s just move on…

Angels @ Royals

Tyler Skaggs is being recalled to start for the Angels tonight, and he’s been pretty good in seven starts down in Triple-A. He struck out 36 percent of batters faced and walked only six percent. The problem is that he only threw 32.1 innings, which averages out to less than five innings per start. He’s coming back from an injury, so there’s no way you can count on him for many innings. And honestly, his matchup with Kansas City sucks. But among the ultra-cheap starters going today, Skaggs may have the best chance to rack up some Ks for however long he’s in the game.

Other than that, have you heard about this guy named Mike Trout?

Rays @ Dodgers

This one is all about pitching. Both starters, Chris Archer and Bud Norris, are among the five guys in action tonight who have been pitching very well of late. Norris has arguably been the best of the bunch with a strikeout rate just shy of 30 percent and walk rate under four percent in his last five starts. And man does he have a great matchup against Archer’s Rays. The Rays have a wRC+ of 90 vs. RHP and a 24.2 percent K% vs. RHP. Per my own matchup stat, they’re the best matchup of the day for any pitcher. Norris is priced very cheaply across the board, so he’s my top pitching option of the day. I’m fine with him in any contest type. As for Archer, his matchup with the Dodgers is less appealing. But Archer is one of two or three guys starting today who are really capable of racking up Ks, so he’s a GPP option with a bit of value in his price tags on both sites. The only bat to consider is Corey Seager who has a 160 wRC+ vs. RHP. He could be a GPP option against Archer.

Reds @ Giants

Joey Votto continues to run extremely hot with a 335 wRC+ in the last seven days. He’s also facing RHP Matt Cain who has leans fly ball-heavy. Unfortunately this game is in San Francisco and not Cincy, which stifles Votto’s appeal just a bit, though his $3,300 salary on FD will be tough to ignore. For the Giants, right-hander Buster Posey has a 146 wRC+ vs. LHP and will face LHP Cody Reed today. Reed has a projected FIP of 5.70 vs. RHP, and Cincy’s bullpen is the worst in the league, so this is great matchup for Posey. He is priced quite nicely on DK. Mac Williamson could also be a salary relief option on DK with a 276 wRC+ in the last seven days.

Player Rankings

**Players are listed according to their FD positional eligibility

Catcher

  1. Buster Posey (better value on DK)
  2. Evan Gattis (better value on FD)
  3. Jonathan Lucroy (better value on FD)
  4. Stephen Vogt (better value on FD)
  5. Travis d’Arnaud

First Base

  1. David Ortiz
  2. Anthony Rizzo (better value on DK)
  3. Edwin Encarnacion (better value on DK)
  4. Joey Votto (better value on FD)
  5. Freddie Freeman (better value on DK)

Second Base

  1. Jose Altuve (better value on FD)
  2. Daniel Murphy (better value on FD
  3. Rougned Odor (better value on DK)
  4. Jonathan Schoop (better value on DK)
  5. Kolten Wong

Third Base

  1. Kris Bryant (better value on DK)
  2. Manny Machado (better value on DK)
  3. Wilmer Flores (better value on  FD)
  4. Josh Donaldson (better value on DK)
  5. Jake Lamb (better value on FD)

Shortstop

  1. Carlos Correa
  2. Jonathan Villar
  3. Trevor Story (better value on FD)
  4. Alex Bregman
  5. Corey Seager

Outfield

  1. George Springer (better value on FD)
  2. Ryan Braun
  3. Mike Trout
  4. Nelson Cruz
  5. Josh Reddick (better value on FD)
  6. Jackie Bradley, Jr. (better value on FD)
  7. Carlos Gonzalez
  8. Michael Saunders (better value on DK)
  9. Franklin Gutierrez (better value on DK)
  10. Carlos Beltran (better value on DK)
  11. Miguel Sano (better value on FD)
  12. Christian Yelich

Starting Pitcher

  1. Bud Norris
  2. Marcus Stroman (better value on FD)
  3. Kyle Hendricks (better value on FD)
  4. Chris Archer
  5. Danny Salazar (better value on DK)
  6. Felix Hernandez (better value on DK)
  7. Tyler Skaggs

Research Chart

Download today’s research chart from this Google Sheet. Projections are derived from Fangraphs Depth Chart projections, which are cut down to a per-game basis and then adjusted for ball park and matchup. A glossary for the columns in the ‘hitter research’ tab is included below the chart.

SP Adj. – Projected FIP (based on ZiPS) of opposing pitcher against hitters of that handedness

BP Adj. – 2015 Fangraphs HR park factor for LHH or RHH

Pen Adj. – xFIP of opposing bullpen against hitters of that handedness

Last 7 – Hitter’s wRC+ in last seven days

July – Hitter’s wRC+ in July

L/R – Hitter’s 2015-2016 wRC+ against LHP or RHP

Projections and values are then included for each site.

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