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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy, June 14th

Good morning folks! Welcome to another Sunday edition of Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy. Below I’ve listed my take on today’s pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as an individual set of player rankings for today’s all day slate at DraftKings.

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Forecast

Today is not going to be a fun day for weather. As of right now, the games in Detroit, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Texas and Chicago all have chances of thunderstorms. Most of these are day games, so there is a good chance teams will be able to wait out any real threats, but make sure to monitor the forecasts closely.

Pitching Perspective

I’ve been spoiled greatly the last few times I’ve gotten to write up this post. Today is no different as there are a plethora of pitching options to choose from. I’ll start with Chris Sale, who gets a really juicy matchup on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays. Sale will be getting a nice bump due to the park shift away from US Cellular Field, and he’ll also get the benefit of facing a very mediocre offense. The Rays are in the top ten in the league in strikeout percentage, and Sale has been on top of his game in that department (11.31 K/9). Sale is one of those pitchers who is consistently working deep into games as well as racking up the strikeouts, and he should be at the top of your list for cash game and GPP use today. Also make note of the fact that he’s not even the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he’s the top ranked.

It’s not much of a decline to the second set of pitching options, one that includes Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and AJ Burnett. Kluber is similar to Sale in terms of his DFS value. He typically works deep into games, and has the ability to rack up a ton of strikeouts. The problem with using Kluber today is the potential threat for weather, as well as a not so pleasant matchup with the Tigers offense. For those two reasons, along with his salary, I’m downgrading Kluber to more of a GPP play, but he’s an excellent one. If you’re playing a lot of multi-entry, make sure you have some exposure to him.

Scherzer has a much better matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers, and the threat of rain won’t hurt him under the roof at Miller Park. The Brewers lineup actually is a whole lot better with Jonathan Lucroy back, but I don’t expect it to slow down Scherzer. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but rightfully so thanks to his insane strikeout potential and juicy matchup. Because of his price, I’m ranking him a little bit behind Sale, but it’s close enough that I’m not against paying for Scherzer if you have some sort of personal vendetta against Sale.

Lester hasn’t been the guy that Cubs fans have wanted so far this year, but he could bounce back tonight. The Reds lineup has a lot of holes right now, and they just got even worse losing Zack Cozart earlier this week. Lester’s price is way below his skillset, and the matchup warrants him as a great second starting pitching option in cash games and GPPs. The strikeout potential is still there (8.75 K/9) and his xFIP says he isn’t pitching quite as bad as his ERA would tell you. Using Lester will also provide you with a bit of a late sweat, as the Cubs and Reds are the Sunday Night Baseball game. I’ll be using him as a SP2.

AJ Burnett would be the last guy I’d contemplate using in cash games today and solely due to his matchup. Yes, Burnett has the lucky wand that nets him a matchup with the hapless Phillies offense. This game will also be at home in Pittsburgh, resulting in a pretty significant negative park shift for the Phillies offense. Even with age, Burnett has been really solid this year, posting a 8.22 K/9 as well as a GB% at 55%. Like I’ve mentioned in the past, those are a healthy DFS combo, one that I’ll look to take advantage of today. The good thing about Burnett is while he has a decent floor, his matchup also gives him a solid ceiling, making him GPP and cash game worthy.

Stack Options

Because of all the plus pitchers today, the offensive stack options are somewhat limited. You’ll want to try and take advantage of the game at Camden Yards as long as weather is not an issue. Camden is one of the best offensive environments on the slate, and is particularly advantageous for left-handed hitters. As a result, the Yankees boppers, as well as Chris Davis get a nice boost playing here today, and should all be at the top of your list for tournaments. I’m more likely to pile up Yankees bats in cash games, as opposed to the Orioles, but a sprinkling of either is not a bad idea. As long as the weather stays away, you’ll want some exposure to this game.

Another great game for offense should be the game in Fenway Park. Eduardo Rodriguez has been fantastic in his first few starts for the Red Sox, but he hasn’t had to deal with an offense like the Blue Jays yet. On the other end of this, the Red Sox get the upper hand in a juicy matchup with home run prone, Marco Estrada. While this game has the makings of full stack potential, the salaries attached to both teams make it difficult, so perhaps a mix and match is the best way to go. I love Josh Donaldson against left-handers, and David Ortiz has dominated right-handed pitching. They are my top-2 guys in this game, followed just behind by Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. You can also find value in this game, assuming someone like Danny Valencia gets a spot start.

The highest run total of the day is the game in Texas that features the Minnesota Twins and the Texas Rangers. The pitching matchup features a pair of right-handers, Nick Martinez and Phil Hughes, with Vegas giving a slight nod to Martinez. I’m in favor of stacking up some Rangers left-handed bats, as they’ll feature a bunch with a lot of power (Fielder, Gallo) through the middle of their order. On the other side, the Twins don’t have much full stack potential, but if you’re looking to be contrarian, I always like Brian Dozier at a premium DFS position.

Here is my obligatory Houston Astros mention. The Astros are at home, in a good offensive ballpark facing a left-handed pitcher. I’ve said this a million times before, they are extremely boom or bust and could make you very happy, or very frustrated. I’m certain you probably won’t see prices this low for some of their best players, so you can easily fit in a full stack. Go for it.

Last but not least, I really like the Washington Nationals, and especially Bryce Harper in a nice offensive environment on a day where there might be a lot of outstanding weather concerns. The Nats will get a nice park shift, and are facing a right-hander who will be making only his second start of his career. With Anthony Rendon back, the Nats pick up a little viability as a stackable offense, but you’ll want to focus on the very top with Rendon, Span, Harper and, ugh, Yunel Escobar.

Oh, and also don’t forget about the Cubs against Anthony DeScalifini. The nice thing about DraftKings is although we won’t have lineups by the time the other games lock, you can swap in any Cubs that you’ll want to grab.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Brian McCann -$4,200 – New York Yankees

2. Russell Martin -$4,800 – Toronto Blue Jays

3. Matt Wieters -$4,200 – Baltimore Orioles

First Basemen

1. David Ortiz -$4,100 – Boston Red Sox

2. Anthony Rizzo -$5,200 – Chicago Cubs

3. Prince Fielder -$4,500 – Texas Rangers

Second Basemen

1. Jose Altuve -$4,100 – Houston Astros

2. Joe Panik -$3,600 – San Francisco Giants

3. Jimmy Paredes -$4,000 – Baltimore Orioles

Shorstops

1. Troy Tulowitzki -$5,400 – Colorado Rockies

2. Hanley Ramirez -$4,700 – Boston Red Sox

3. Carlos Correa -$4,100 – Houston Astros

Third Basemen

1. Josh Donaldson-$5,200 – Toronto Blue Jays

2. Joey Gallo -$3,400 -Texas Rangers

3. Manny Machado -$4,500 – Baltimore Orioles

Outfield

1. Jose Bautista -$5,500 – Toronto Blue Jays

2. Giancarlo Stanton -$5,600 – Miami Marlins

3. Shin-Soo Choo -$4,200 – Texas Rangers

Starting Pitchers

1. Chris Sale -$11,400 – Chicago White Sox

2. Max Scherzer -$11,700 – Washington Nationals

3. Corey Kluber -$10,300 – Cleveland Indians

4. Jon Lester -$8,600 – Chicago Cubs

5. AJ Burnett -$9,500 – Pittsburgh Pirates

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