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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: June 2, 2015

Good morning folks! Welcome to another day of daily fantasy baseball strategy. Below I’ve included a discussion on tonight’s night slate (bypassing the two early parts of double headers). With the discussion I’ve included thoughts on the pitching situation, the best teams to stack from as well as player rankings.

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Forecast

Once again it appears that there might be rain troubles on the East coast, although nothing looks incredibly threatening. Make sure to monitor the forecasts throughout the day all the way up to lineup lock.

Pitching Perspective

Last night was a nightmare. King Felix might have blown up a lot of your lineups last night, but the great thing about Daily Fantasy Baseball is that we get to clean the slate and start all over tonight.

Tonight there aren’t as many standout names, but there are just as many options.

The first one that leaps off the page is Max Scherzer. Since making his way to the National League, Scherzer has been dominant, posting a 10.67 K/9 with a 2.88 xFIP. The Blue Jays offense is one of the better offenses in the league, but they are primarily right-handed. Scherzer has held right-handers to a .277 wOBA in his career and shouldn’t have much trouble making his way through their lineup tonight. He’s a huge favorite, with a huge price tag. He makes for a great GPP play, but might be tough to fit in your cash games, although he’s safe if you can fit him in.

The next biggest name is Johnny Cueto, who will be making his first start back from a minor issue that forced him to miss a start. The great thing about Cueto is he has a matchup with the hapless Philadelphia Phillies team, and he’s also a huge favorite. He doesn’t carry quite the strikeout upside (8.18 K/9) of Scherzer but the savings in salary might allow you to grab some more hitters from Coors Field. I haven’t seen anything that points to Cueto being on a pitch count, so he should be fine for your cash games tonight.

Below the top two pitchers are a bunch of other names that are viable options thanks to DraftKings two pitcher format. Chris Archer is priced well below his skill set as he travels on the road to Los Angeles. The Angels aren’t a scary offense (24th in wOBA), but they also don’t strike out that much (only 19.4%). Archer will have his great strikeout upside diminished a little bit because of that, but he’s still a great tournament option for his price.

Jacob deGrom dominated the Padres last night, and Noah Syndergaard will look to do the same tonight. Syndergaard is priced pretty fairly and allows you to pay up for the offensive hitters you’ll want while still giving you plenty of upside. The Padres strikeout the 6th most in the league and play in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Syndergaard has great strikeout upside and shouldn’t have too much trouble dealing with the 27th worst wOBA in the league.

Below Syndergaard is one of my favorite options of the night. Chris Heston is so cheap and so overlooked. Heston has a matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates at his home park (one of the best parks for pitchers) and is a slight favorite in this game. Heston grades out really well and has a decent K/9 and a groundball rate above 50%. Because of his price ($5,300) he really doesn’t even need to pitch that well to provide you with a great value, but I think he’ll exceed that tonight. He makes for a great value in cash games.

There are a few other tournament options I’d definitely consider going forward tonight on a big slate. Carlos Carrasco has immense strikeout upside and is in line to strikeout 10+ batters every single time he takes the ball. Don’t shy away from him if you’re using a lot of multi-entry in tournaments.

Jeff Samardzija and Lance Lynn are the two others I would keep my eye on tonight, with Lynn being in play also in cash games. Both have the potential to work deep into games and rack up plenty of strikeouts. They are lesser tournament options at their price point due to the fact that they hover around Archer and Syndergaard, but they should be considered nonetheless.

Stack Options

Much like yesterday, I should inform you that there is a game in Coors Field. Do note that this is going to be the second game of a doubleheader, so you’ll want to be careful and make sure lineups are confirmed before playing anyone from this game. The starting pitchers are scheduled to be Zack Grienke and David Hale, so lean towards a heavy dosage of Dodgers once again. It worked out pretty well last night, and I’d suggest having plenty of exposure in both cash games and GPPs.

Outside of Coors Field there a bunch of other stacks that you can deploy tonight to try and get more contrarian. First off, the Cleveland Indians have a matchup with Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is atrocious against left-handed hitters and the Indians are primarily left-handed. They’ll be able to field six left-handed hitters at the top of the order and most of them are great values for mix and match cash games or as stack fillers with your Coors Field game. Look to David Murphy or Lonnie Chisenhall to get some higher priced exposure.

Guthrie will try not to be outdone by Colby Lewis tonight. Lewis has finally started regressing to the mean in his last few starts and last time out he was pummeled by the Cleveland Indians. Lewis gets an easier matchup with the Chicago White Sox, but I still like the top options for the White Sox in tournaments tonight. Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera and Adam Laroche should round out the top-3. If Jose Abreu gets back into the lineup he also becomes a top option. The White Sox will be incredibly contrarian, but they have the potential to rack up plenty of runs tonight.

Much like last night, the Atlanta Braves have a solid matchup with Josh Collmenter. The Braves don’t carry much home run potential, but they do have a huge positive park shift since this game is in Arizona. Again, like the White Sox, the Braves will be more of a contrarian option, but they have plenty of players that will work as plug and plays in both cash games and tournaments. Freddie Freeman is the best play from this lineup, but the opportunity cost at first base is a little bit higher than at other positions.

Last but not least, don’t forget about the Detroit Tigers who get a home matchup with Kendall Graveman. The Tigers fly a little bit under the radar tonight because all of the games in better ballparks against even worse pitchers, but they are currently carrying a team total around 4.5 runs. The hard part about stacking the Tigers is that they all carry above average price tags and they aren’t easy to full stack. Believe it or not, you might not be able to get the Tigers stack as a more contrarian option than they are tonight.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Carlos Santana -$4,500 – Cleveland Indians

2. Yasmani Grandal -$4,400 -Los Angeles Dodgers

3. Evan Gattis -$4,400 – Houston Astros

First Basemen

1. Adrian Gonzalez -$5,300 – Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Brandon Moss -$4,600 – Cleveland Indians

3. Miguel Cabrera -$5,300 – Detroit Tigers

Second Basemen

1. Justin Turner -$4,000 -Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Jason Kipnis -$5,100 – Cleveland Indians

3. Howie Kendrick -$4,300 -Los Angeles Dodgers

Shortstops

1. Troy Tulowitzki -$5,300 – Colorado Rockies

2. Ian Desmond -$4,200 – Washington Nationals

3. Jhonny Peralta -$3,900 – St. Louis Cardinals

Third Basemen

1. Alex Guerrero -$3,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Kris Bryant -$5,000 – Chicago Cubs

3. Lonnie Chisenhall -$3,900 – Cleveland Indians

Outfield

1.Joc Pederson -$4,600 – Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Bryce Harper -$5,200 – Washington Nationals

3. Ender Inciarte -$3,900 – Arizona Diamondbacks

4. Andre Ethier -$4,000 – Los Angeles Angels

Starting Pitchers 

 1. Max Scherzer -$12,000 – Washington Nationals

2. Johnny Cueto -$10,400 – Cincinnati Reds

3. Chris Heston -$5,300 – San Francisco Giants

4. Lance Lynn -$8,500 – Milwaukee Brewers

5. Chris Archer -$8,900 – Tampa Bay Rays

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