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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: January 27th

Photo credit: Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
Photo credit: Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

 
Due to my finalizing of two season long articles the past two days, I don’t have my usual amount of time to type out a huge DFS piece, but I’ve still done the player and matchup research and will hit you with a couple of my top plays at each position and some cash game rankings for tonight’s 6-game slate.

First, let’s look at the game lines for tonight unlike last night where all but one game were projected blowouts (although only one team won by double-digits). Below are the six matchups showing who is favored by how many and the games projected total. This is a good way to note what teams are projected to win and if it’s expected to be close and how high scoring of a game it will be. The more points scored in a game the more fantasy points there are to spread around.

Toronto (-3.5) @ Indiana — 195.5

Cleveland (-7.5) @ Detroit — 205

Milwaukee @ Miami (-4) — 182.5

Memphis @ Dallas (-4.5) — 201

Chicago @ Golden State (-9.5) — 210.5

Washington (-8.5) @ LA Lakers — 197

Now that we know how the know-it-alls in Vegas see the games going, let’s look at players to target tonight.

POINT GUARD

Stephen Curry ($10,000) – I’m paying up for the first half MVP tonight against the Bulls in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night. Steph loves to show out in big matchups and here against a top team from the East, he’ll come out guns a blazing. Also, with Klay shadowed by Jimmy Butler all night, the Warriors will need Curry to deliver a full work load on offense and Derrick Rose isn’t going to stop that from happening. John Wall ($9200) is also worth a look if you can’t quite fit Curry tonight. Wall has a nice matchup but I’m a little concerned it will get out of hand despite the single digit spread.

D.J. Augustin ($5800) – DJ will be heavily used tonight because he’s still relatively cheap for a starting point guard and he’s coming off of a big time night where he scored 35 points. Everything looks set up for another solid night hitting above value for DJ but if you’re doing multi-lineups in a GPP you may want to fade him on a team or two just in case he has a dud then you’d likely have the 1-up on the 70% that will have him rostered.

Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes ($3500/$3000) – If Mike Conley can’t go tonight as I expect after spraining his wrist last night against Orlando, the backup point guards in Memphis will be great value/punt plays. Udrih would get the start as he did a little over a week ago when Conley missed two games. In those two games Udrih played 29 minutes in each and put up 26 and 31 DK point performances. Last night playing 26 minutes due to Conley leaving the game early, Beno took it to the Magic and delivered 33 DK points. Basically, if Conley is out, Udrih is a must use. Calathes is a punt play at the minimum price and he’s going to get 15-20 minutes with Conley out where he’ll get you 15-20 DK points likely.

 
SHOOTING GUARD

J.R. Smith ($5000) – I’m likely going fairly cheap at SG tonight and one of the guys I’ll be plugging in is the trigger happy J.R. Smith. He’s been on a semi-productive roll scoring 30 DK points in three of his last four games. He’s always a risk as he can easily have an off night and do next to nothing but the matchup and price are right and I’m going to be a big fan of JR Swish tonight.

Lou Williams ($4700) – Another somewhat cheap option I’ll use at SG tonight is, Sweet Lou. He relies heavily on scoring which is always scary but he’s been going for low-to-mid 20 DK point performances recently on a consistent basis with 30 upside. I like the safe value option he provides tonight despite the lack of upside.

O.J. Mayo ($4300) – See the trend here today? Low cost, hot recently but come with a rough shooting history that makes you feel like you’re on shifty ice but that’s why you get the friendly price tag. At $4300, if Mayo can drop another mid-20s DK point night as he has eight games, I’m very pleased with that given the flexibility I get to use elsewhere.

**I’m fading the fiery hot Klay Thompson tonight. I don’t like the price given the matchup against Jimmy B and the Bulls tonight.**

 
SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James ($10,700) – The other elite option tonight is King James. I’m definitely going to roll out a lineup with both he and Curry tonight using value options like Udrih and Mayo to still allow me to not have to go all bottom tier options elsewhere. If you started a lineup with LeBron, Curry, Mayo and Udrih, you’d still have an average of $5375 to use per player filling out the remaining four spots. LeBron has scored 50+ DK points in three straight games and looks back to his MVP form.

Khris Middleton ($4900) – Middleton is an ideal target tonight regardless if you’re going cheaper at most spots to fit in a couple studs or going with one stud and a strong balance elsewhere. Back-to-back 30+ point DK nights and plays 30 minutes every night. Luol Deng being out for Miami doesn’t hurt his chances of delivering a nice line either.

Danny Granger ($3000) – No, I’m not a big supporter of this route tonight even with Deng out of the picture. Granger has played over 24 minutes seven times in the last 16 games for the Heat and only three times did he hit the 20 DK point level. Now, if you want to roll out a lineup with Curry + LeBron + another $8k+ play, you may have to shrug all that off and just take him knowing he’ll play extended minutes and pray his threes are falling tonight. Just one more super sketchy punt option for tonight if you make it rain elsewhere.

 
POWER FORWARD

Greg Monroe and Zach Randolph ($8500/$8100) – Both Monroe and ZBo have been fantastic recently. ZBo has recorded double-doubles in five straight games and he’s destroying every team in his path, and Monroe has put up 40+ DK points in four of the last five Piston games. Both players have fair matchups and while their prices aren’t cheap, they’re not elite level either although their play has been.

David West ($6200) – West has been a little inconsistent lately but his price is just about right, he has a matchup against Amir Johnson and the Raptors who allowed Monroe to destroy them a couple nights back and he has at least a 23 DK point floor. I think he puts up 30 or better tonight though.

Risky business: If you need to go real cheap at PF tonight you can take a look at these options although there’s nothing safe about these routes but they’ve all shown recently that they can come through time to time. Pat Patterson ($4000) has scored over 20 in four of the Raps last five, Kris Humphries ($3800) coming off a big 41 DK point night but usually lands more around 20 but could see extra minutes if this game gets ugly and Damjan Rudez ($3000) has risen as a punt option with C.J. Miles out again tonight. Rudez went off on the Magic a couple nights back playing 29 minutes but another 26 point DK night should be seen as the ceiling and 15-20 is more realistic.

 
CENTER

Hassan Whiteside ($5800) – There’s no way around this one. The Heat already said Whiteside will start tonight against the Bucks and coming off of his huge triple-double game where he blocked 12 shots in just 25 minutes of play will have him likely the highest used player tonight right up there with Augustin. If you’re doing a GPP maybe consider fading just to go against the grain a bit but it won’t be easy to do with this price and matchup.

Timofey Mozgov ($5100) – Moz was on a hot streak for three games until he had a poor showing in his last game against a very tough Steven Adams of OKC. That down game and the attention to Whiteside will make Mozzy slip through the cracks as a not so highly owned value play at center tonight. Look for him to rebound (pun intended) and deliver another double-double performance against the Pistons tonight.

Chris Bosh ($8100) – If I’m going to pay for a center tonight, it’s going to be Bosh. With a good matchup against the Bucks and Luol Deng out of action, Bosh will be looked to early and often in this one. I prefer going cheap at center tonight but I may sprinkle in at least one lineup with the Bosh-ness monster. He’ll be very low owned I’d imagine as he’s been lingering around 27-35 DK points but he’s mixed in 52 and 46 point nights in the past couple weeks and this could potentially be the next big game. Like I said though, he won’t be a primary target for me.

 
Cash game rankings: (This isn’t which players I think will score the most points. It’s a combination of price and performance projected for tonight.)

PG:
1) Beno Udrih
2) D.J. Augustin
3) Stephen Curry
4) John Wall
5) Derrick Rose
6) Kyrie Irving
7) Nick Calathes

SG:
1) O.J. Mayo
2) J.R. Smith
3) Lou Williams
4) Monta Ellis
5) Bradley Beal

SF:
1) LeBron James
2) Khris Middleton
3) Danny Granger
4) Paul Pierce
5) Jeff Green

PF:
1) Zach Randolph
2) Greg Monroe
3) David West
4) Dirk Nowitzki
5) Pau Gasol
6) Kris Humphries/Pat Patterson
7) Damjan Rudez

C:
1) Hassan Whiteside
2) Timofey Mozgov
3) Chris Bosh
4) Marcin Gortat
5) Zaza Pachulia

 

For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions you may have answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44

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