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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: January 28th

Big Bad Boogie Photo credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Big Bad Boogie
Photo credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Today’s NBA daily fix features a couple players at each position that I highly recommend for tonight’s 11-game NBA slate. It’s going to be a tough one with all of the elite players active tonight including LeBron, Durant, Unibrow, Harden and Cousins. All of those guys are between $10,700 and $11,100 and if you pick the one who doesn’t go for 50+ DK points you’re digging yourself into a hole that is doubtful to win you any cash unless you miss nowhere else. It feels like it’s going to be one of those nights that there will be mega scores and a 300 point night on DK will just be solid not a guaranteed cash.

DAILY NOTES

Potential blowouts: Brooklyn @ Atlanta (-13.5), Charlotte @ San Antonio (-13), Oklahoma City (-9) @ New York (yes, even with KD out)

Highest point total lines: POR/CLE 206.5, SAC/TOR 207.5, DAL/HOU 207, WAS/PHX 211.5

Inactives: Kevin Durant, Mo WilliamsRicky Rubio, Kemba Walker, Jrue Holiday, Jose Calderon

 

POINT GUARD:

D.J. Augustin ($5800) – DJ will continue to be on this list as long as he’s the starter and priced so lowly. DJ has played like a tier-2 PG as a starter and he should do more of the same tonight against the pathetic Sixers. I can’t find a reason to not use him, even if he’ll be upwards of 80% owned. He’s put up 53 and 40 DK points in his last two games as the starter.

Langston Galloway ($4300) – Calderon is out again and that means another sure start at point guard for Galloway who just signed with the Knicks for the rest of the season. 21-32-32-32 DK points over his last four games and he still got a healthy amount of shots even when Carmello played. If Melo plays tonight Galloway is a solid play but if Melo is out, ALL THE GALLOWAY.

Kyle Lowry ($8900) – There’s plenty of good options atop the PG chain tonight but with so many good value options, I will likely save here and spend high elsewhere. I do like Lowry a lot tonight against the Kings though who are bottom-5 in DK points allowed to point guards. The pace in this one aligns great for Lowry to have one of his big time nights if you want to spend at the position.

Some cheap risk PG options: Zach LaVine ($3000) makes for a superb punt option with Mo Williams out. He’s not yet a great player but when he’s but up at least 20 DK points in all eight games that Mo Williams has been out this season. At the minimum, I’ll take it and pray for some upside although Marcus Smart will D him up tight. Brian Roberts ($4200) is starting at PG for the Hornets with Kemba sidelined and he’s not great but he’s productive enough to hit value at this price. With cheap risk plays you’re looking for minutes played and then hoping the production follows and that’s the case for both of the above.

 

SHOOTING GUARD:

DeMar DeRozan ($6500) – DeRozan came back from injury hot then went ice cold and now seems to be finding his shot again with back-to-back strong showings. DeMar now looks to the Kings and what should be a fast paced high scoring game. I’m betting on a back and forth scoring battle between DeRozan and Gay, so look for lots of opportunities and his usual good steals. Would be surprised if he had a let down and didn’t go for more than 35 DK points which is great considering his price is still down.

Tyreke Evans ($8200) – I love Tyreke against the Nuggets while starting at point guard with Jrue out. He should be able to reke
havoc and get to the bucket a lot tonight. His game can be spotty at times and it’s a little nerve wracking using a sporadic player at this price point but everything looks liked up for a full line in this one.

Some cheap risk SG options: Reggie Jackson($4400) tends to make the most of his added opportunity when Durant or Westbrook are out, and with KD out and at this price he’s worth mixing in. I hate myself for this one but I am feeling Lance Stephenson ($5000) tonight especially as a GPP play. The Hornets will need help at the point with just Brian Roberts and Neal there and Stephenson has shown he can excel at controlling and dishing the ball. There’s tons of reasons to stay away here which oddly is just added reason that I love him for a GPP contrarion play. Speaking of Gary Neal ($3000) he’s not a bad punt option playing backup PG for the Hornets tonight. Last game he was just terribly off going 0/6 from the field but he should see about 20 minutes and he can get hot from behind the arc quick.

 

SMALL FORWARD:

Rudy Gay ($7700) – You have to love Rudy falling into this price range. He can deliver elite production at the position on any given night but he does have the occasional stinker like last game vs the Warriors where he only put up 10 DK points. Tonight Rudy gets a revenge matchup against the Raptors who have proclaimed to have improved by removing him from the situation, and Rudy seems like the type who will have a chip on his shoulder and bring the pain any chance he gets versus Toronto. I see a big 40+ night ahead.

DeMarre Carroll ($5100) – While most of the Hawks players are tough to pay a high price for in a potential blowout game, Carroll is really fairly priced and I like him as a value play tonight. DeMarre just matches up really well with the subpar small forwards of Brooklyn. Carroll gets the minutes and the shots and they should be open looks tonight, so he should knock down some treys and fill the stat sheet well. He’s a safe bet for 25 DK points tonight with an upside into the 30s.

Some cheap risk SF options: Joe Ingles ($3700) has locked up a nice bit of playing time nightly at the SG position for the Jazz and he’s put up 25-28-21 DK points in the last three games. Look for that trend of solid play to continue which hits value at his near minimum price. Jerami Grant ($3400) is not a safe play but Sixers coach Brett Brown has raved about Grant’s energy and that explains Grant playing an average of 25 minutes a night over the past couple of weeks. Grant seems a cheap play for a floor 15 DK points but if he has one of his good block games — which he does here and there including four in his last game — he can hit upwards of 25. Perry Jones ($3100) makes for a nice punt play with Durant sitting this one out. He didn’t pad his stats last game with KD out but he saw 24 minutes and could see extended time if OKC puts the Knicks down big.

 

POWER FORWARD

Blake Griffin ($9800) – Griffin has been dominant of late and in three previous games against the Jazz this season he is averaging 47 DK points. Should be more of the same tonight. What you need more reasoning? Highlight dunks! Points! Rebounds! Assists (5.9 per game the last 30 days)! That’s all I got.

Thaddeus Young ($6400) – Thad has been immensely better since being switched to small forward in the Wolves starting lineup. 39 and 45 DK points in the past two games where he played primarily at SF and he matches up well against the Celtic wings. The price, matchup and recent play add up to a fantastic time to lock Young into your lineups.

Some cheap risk PF options: Donatas Motiejunas ($5400) has been putting up 25 DK points nightly and should do well against Dirk. Robert Covington ($5200) needs his shots to fall as they weren’t the last two games. I think he could have a bounce-back here against Detroit for his price, 30-ish. Patrick Patterson ($4000) has seen his playing time increase and he’s hit value five of the last six games. The Raptors will need his versatility tonight against Sacramento, look for 25 DK points at a good price here. Anthony Tolliver is simply the ideal type of stretch-four that Stan Van Gundy loves. He’s really cheap and getting court time and could see extra if they blow out the Sixers.

 

CENTER:

DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900) – Yeah, it’s a really steep price tag and a big slate with a lot of options but of the elite level players, I think Boogie is my favorite tonight. He’s coming off a four day break and this will be an uptempo game in Toronto where DMC should bully Jonas Valanciunas around in the paint on both ends. Don’t be surprised when he puts up a 60 DK point monster night.

Al Jefferson ($6700) – Big Al is back in the starting lineup for the Hornets tonight and with Kemba Walker out, the offense will have to run through Jefferson. The only cause for concern here is the Spurs potential to blow Charlotte out, but I think Jefferson puts up a big healthy double-double even if he sits half of the 4th quarter. Al is way underpriced here and until the price tag matches his talent, I’m rolling with him.

 

CASH GAME RANKINGS: (This isn’t who I feel will score the most tonight. It’s a combination of production and price value and who I think add up to be the best plays of the night in cash games)

PG:
1) D.J. Augustin
2) Langston Galloway
3) Zach LaVine
4) Kyle Lowry
5) Brian Roberts
6) Russell Westbrook
7) Michael Carter-Williams (if he plays, questionable)
8) John Wall
9) Isaiah Thomas
10) Ty Lawson

SG:
1) DeMar DeRozan
2) Tyreke Evans
3) James Harden
4) Reggie Jackson
5) Eric Gordon
6) Lance Stephenson (prefer in GPP)
7) Arron Afflalo

SF:
1) Rudy Gay
2) DeMarre Carroll
3) Gordon Hayward
4) Joe Ingles
5) Kawhi Leonard
6) Perry Jones
7) Andrew Wiggins
8) Jerami Grant

PF:
1) Thaddeus Young
2) Blake Griffin
3) Patrick Patterson
4) Anthony Tolliver
5) Paul Millsap
6) Donatas Motiejunas

C:
1) DeMarcus Cousins
2) Al Jefferson
3) Al Horford
4) Rudy Gobert
5) Gorgui Dieng

 

For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions you may have answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44

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