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Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: THE PLAYERS Championship

After our week off for the Match Play event, DraftKings is back for PGA Daily Fantasy at THE PLAYERS Championship. And I’m back again to provide daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings’ PGA game.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

This week we head tee it up for the THE PLAYERS Championship at The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra, Florida just outside of Jacksonville. The Stadium Course is a 7,215 yard par 72 course with the shortest hole (the 17 th at 137 yards) being the most intriguing on the entire course with its Island Green. The course was built in 1980 with the idea this would be the permanent home of THE PLAYERS Championship. The tournament switched to the May date (from March) after the 2007 renovation so any stats prior to 2007 aren’t useful.

The weather looks solid for the week with some wind on Thursday (a little worse in the morning) and some showers on Friday afternoon. Keep tabs on the wind as we might avoid early morning tee times on Thursday completely with the rain affecting those players on Friday afternoon as well.

Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, ten (10) par fours and four (4) par fives. When the course was designed, the PGA wanted a course that would offer no favors to any player. No two consecutive holes play in the same direction. Each hole is nearly a course unto itself.

Field

It’s the mythical “fifth” major and as such we see a star studded field with 49 out of the top 50 in OWGR teeing it up this weekend. Even Tiger Woods is here. Victor Dubuisson withdrew leaving us down a man.

The full field can be found here.

Thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

2014 Winner: Martin Kaymer ended his more than two year drought picking up a one stroke victory over the Sunday surge of Jim Furyk. Kaymer led wire to wire though he was certainly sweating on Sunday. No one has defended his title here.

Here are the top 20s from the last three years’ tournaments to give you a wider view of the recent course history.

Top 20 - THE PLAYERS Championship - Last 3 years
Top 20 – THE PLAYERS Championship – Last 3 years

Statistical Review

Break out your Florida Swing players this week – they will be part of the analysis this week as we head back to Florida for a week. This is a tough course with no discernible weakness and as a result we won’t be able to pick on a certain type of player. The all-around player will be king this week and with the depth of the field, there will be many options.

Greens in Regulation (GIR) – You need to stay out of trouble here. Driving distance isn’t important this week, but getting the greens keeps you in the hunt. When you see names like KJ Choi and Fred Funk in the winner’s circle you know you can win here without length.

Scrambling – You are going to get in trouble somewhere on the course and you’ll need to get out. Four of the top five players in scrambling in 2014 finished in the top 6.

Par 5 Scoring – Even though I’m going to downplay driving distance this week, I still want players who can score on par 5s. These are the holes where the players will need to pick up birdies. Eagles are tough to come by with all par 5s playing 523 yards or longer and the leader in eagles for the tournament is generally someone who can put up two in the four rounds.

Ball striking – The stat that combines total driving and GIR is another quick check to make this week.

Players just need to hold serve on the par 3s and par 4s to have a shot this weekend.

Kaymer won last year finishing 19th in driving distance, T39 in driving accuracy, but third in GIR and fourth in scrambling. When Tiger won in 2013 he was T3 in GIR and sixth in scrambling while finishing T22 in driving distance.

DraftKings Expert Picks

Rory McIlroy | $13,200 – McIlroy played a ton of golf last week to pick up the win at the WGC Match Play. He’s finished in the top 10 here the last two years, but I think there is value down the board that means I don’t have to take Rory. He could make an interesting GPP play as I’m not sure a lot will be on him this week.

Jordan Spieth | $12,800 – The hottest player on the planet won two of this three first round matches at the Match Play, but didn’t advance to the Sweet 16. And that’s just fine with me. His last five stroke play tournaments have gone WIN, solo second, T2, WIN, T11. And his first trip here last year resulted in a T4. Well, his first trip as a pro – he finished second as a junior in 2010. Sure, bet against him.

Justin Rose | $10,500 – Rose’s history here has been uneven with six cuts in 11 tries and one top 10. That top 10 was last year (a T4). He comes in playing very well with a T2 at the Masters followed by a WIN at the Zurich Classic. He’s tied for 19th in ball striking, 22nd in GIR and 26th in par 5 scoring so he fits some of the categories we are looking for this week.

Henrik Stenson | $10,400 – Stenson won here in 2009 and then proceeded to miss the cut the next two years. His last three years have seen T15, T5 and a T34 last year. He sits second in ball striking, third in GIR, second in bogey avoidance and a respectable 43rd in scrambling.

Jim Furyk | $10,000 – Furyk lives in Ponte Vedra so I assume he plays here every day when he’s home (not actually true, but I’m sure he gets in rounds when he can). He is 25th in GIR and 14th in scrambling. He won his last time out at the RBC and lost in the consolation finals of the Match Play Championship. He finished second here last year (with a final round 66) and has four top 10s in 19 trips to the course.

Jason Day | $9,900 – I dig Day. I mean I have a tough time not including him every single week he tees it up (and even some week’s when he doesn’t). Day missed out last year and has made only two of four cuts here. Those two cuts resulted in two top 20 finishes. He checks a lot of the statistical boxes as he sits eighth in GIR and 20th in scrambling. He’s T19 in ball striking. He’s eight in par 5 scoring. He didn’t play well at the Match Play, but I don’t care. His worst finish on the season was a T31 at Doral.

Sergio Garcia | $9,800 – Sergio has a stellar track record at THE PLAYERS with 13 cuts made in 15 visits to TPC Sawgrass. He has back to back top 10 finishes here as well and won in 2008. Since missing the cut at Dubai in early February, he’s made five straight cuts, but has only one top 10 (at the NTO). He doesn’t fit the statistical profile (though he’s solid in many of the categories) so you’ll have to trust his track record.

Dustin Johnson | $9,700 – Johnson’s best finish in six trips here is a T34. His lack of accuracy off the tee (192nd in driving accuracy) and inability to hit greens (112th in GIR) can’t be offset by his scrambling (60th). He’s also tied for 99th in ball striking. Save DJ for another day as there isn’t a reason to trot him out there this week.

Matt Kuchar | $9,400 – Kuch’s game is made for this course. He’s made the cut six straight times and has four top 20 finishes (including a win) in those six years. He’s seventh in scrambling and 16th in bogey avoidance and 47th in par 5 scoring so he can keep himself out of trouble even if he doesn’t get to the green in a timely manner.

Bubba Watson | $9,200 – Watson’s best finish at the TPC is a 37th (done twice in 2009 and 2013). He’s neither an accurate driver (136th in driving accuracy and T113 in GIR), nor a particularly great ball striker (T66). He’s improved on his scrambling this year (T5 after 74th in 2014 and 150th in 2013) though that standing is in only 27 scored rounds this year. His worst finish this season is his T38 at the Masters, but he’s got a chance to challenge that record this week.

Louis Oosthuizen | $9,100 – Oosty! He checks a lot of boxes as he is 15th in par 5 scoring, 46th in ball striking, and eighth in GIR. He is a putrid 118th in scrambling so there is some concern if he gets into trouble. He’s made only one cut in four trips here, but I think he’s fully health which will allow him to succeed this year.

Adam Scott | $9,000 – Scott has three top 10s at THE PLAYERS, but none since 2006. He’s tied for 26th in par 5 scoring, fourth in ball striking and seventh in GIR so he’s got a shot to do some damage if he can get his putter to cooperate.

Tiger Woods | $8,900 – I’m not sure what to do with Tiger this week. He looked solid at the Masters on a course he enjoys. He won here in 2013 (his third win in a stretch of four tourneys in 2013) and has also withdrawn twice in his last five stops here. His price is reasonable, but I’d like to see some consistency first.

Hideki Matsuyama | $8,800 – Matsuyama is another statistical maven and ranks the best in my own combined stat of ScramblingGIR (patent pending). He is 11th in GIR and 17th in scrambling. In his inaugural trip to the tourney last year he finished T23. He lost to Rory  in the round of 16 at the Match Play, but he’s coming off a solo fifth at the Masters and a run of four straight top 25 finishes.

Jimmy Walker | $8,800 – Walker has back to back top 15 finishes at the TPC and has made the cut in four of his five trips here. After starting this year as hot as anyone, he’s slowed a bit (though he did win at the Valero at the end of March). He didn’t win a match last week, but his course history is good enough here to warrant consideration.

Hunter Mahan | $8,600 – Mahan always seems to play well on Pete Dye courses. He’s alternated made/missed cuts here the last four years. He has one top ten and three top 20s in his last five trips here. He lost in the round of 16 at the Match Play but put up a T9 his last time out at the Masters.

Lee Westwood | $8,400 – Westwood has back to back top 10 finishes at the Stadium Course and has seen the top 10 in three of his last four trips here. He did beat Jordan Spieth last week at the Match Play, but prior to that he had been a bit shaky with a T46 at the Masters and a missed cut at the Shell Houston Open. He doesn’t do much statistically for me, but his history is top notch.

Martin Kaymer | $8,300 – The defending champ hasn’t shown much on tour this year as he’d missed three cuts in a row heading into Match Play. He didn’t show much at the Match Play either winning only one of his three opening round matchups. He does have a good history here having never missed a cut in six tries, a win and two other top 20 finishes. You’ll have to latch on to his history here to put him in your lineup.

Zach Johnson | $8,200 – Johnson’s record here is nearly unparalleled with nine cuts made in 10 trips. His worst finish in the last five years was 2014’s T26. He has three top 15s during that period. He missed the cut at the RBC, but had three straight top 20s prior to that stumble.

Luke Donald | $8,000 – Donald hasn’t missed the cut here since 2006. In that time, he’s put up two top 10s and four top 20s. As we’ve learned this year, even when Donald isn’t playing well, he still can put up numbers where he’s had success in the past.

Kevin Streelman | $7,700 – Streelman’s record here is so-so with three made cuts in six tries. He does have a top 10 finish (T2 in 2013) and his profile fits the course (eighth in ball striking, 21st in GIR, 49th in scrambling, and 20th in bogey avoidance). He put up a T55 last time out at the RBC, but has made five cuts in a row and did go T12 at the Masters.

Billy Horschel | $7,700 – Horschel’s history here is short as he finished T26 last year and missed the cut the prior year. However, he fits the profile of a player who should do well here. He’s eighth in ball striking, 15th in GIR, and 62nd in bogey avoidance.

Patrick Reed | $7,600 – It is rare to find a player of Reed’s caliber this far down the board. He sits 16 spots lower on the DraftKings salary order than the oddsmakers give him credit for. Moreover, he stands fourth in scrambling. He missed the cut last year in his only trek to the TPC. He’s finished in the top 25 in five of his last six stroke play events.

Sean O’Hair | $7,600 – O’Hair has made eight of nine cuts with his only miss at the Valero. He comes in off a T12 at the Zurich which followed a solo sixth at the RBC. He has three top 25s here since 2007. There isn’t a lot else to recommend O’Hair other than his current form and some history here, but he’s looked like the O’Hair of old in 2015.

J.B. Holmes | $7,500 – For as much as his drives lack accuracy, Holmes has had some success here with top 10 finishes among his five cuts made. He’s missed the cut the last two times he’s made his way to Ponte Vedra. He’s been hit or miss this year with two missed cuts, a win and a solo second in his last four tournaments. He made it to the Sweet 16 last week losing to Jim Furyk.

Daniel Berger | $7,400 – Berger makes his debut here and that’s usually a recipe for disaster (or at least a disappointing finish). However, he’s got the bonafides to make it work – he’s 10th in ball striking, 26th in GIR, 40th in scrambling and 27th in bogey avoidance. Trust in the young man!

Ben Crane | $7,400 – Crane has four top 10 finishes in his last seven trips to TPC Sawgrass. He’s also missed the cut twice during that time period. He comes in not playing well with three missed cuts in his last six and no finish better than T37. But, his history here is tough to ignore.

Webb Simpson | $7,100 – Simpson sits near the top of two of the more important statistical indicators this week – he’s 14th in GIR and 32nd in scrambling. He’s also seventh in ball striking and 13th in bogey avoidance. He’s only missed one cut on the season, though he’s only made two cuts at THE PLAYERS in six tries.

Harris English | $7,000 – English is my statistical darling for the week. He enters 28th in GIR and 27th in scrambling. His course history isn’t great (missed cut last year, best finish T33 in three trips). He’s been on a pretty solid run starting with his T2 at the Farmers. He’s been in the top 30 in five of seven tournaments including the Farmers. He was solid at the Match Play but didn’t make it to the Sweet 16.

Gary Woodland |$7,000 – Woodland, much like J.B. Holmes doesn’t seem like a fit for this course as he’s a bomber who doesn’t often know where the ball lands after teeing off. However, he finished T11 here last year and made the final of the Match Play on the strength of his putting. I know, it’s Bizarro world, but ride Woodland while he’s hot.

Morgan Hoffmann | $6,900 – Hoffmann’s first try at the Stadium Course ended with a T17 last year. He comes in playing well with four straight cuts made including two top 10s. He doesn’t hit many of the statistical indicators outside of his seventh place standing in par 5 scoring. He also won here as a junior in 2007 so he’s got that going for him, which is nice.

Brendon de Jonge | $6,500 – De Jonge is 44 spots lower in salary than his odds say he should be. De Jonge put up back to back 15th place finishes in 2012 and 2013. He made the weekend last year, but struggled to a solo 70th place finish. He is tied for 35th in GIR and T27 in ball striking. He’s been in the top 25 in his last three tour stops.

Daniel Summerhays | $6,500 – Summerhays has played here the last two years and put up T26 and T23 finishes those two years. He’s played well lately with seven made cuts in a row and three top 20 finishes in that run.

David Hearn | $6,400 – Hearn has made the cut in all three of his trips here over the last three years. He’s alternated made and missed cuts in his last four tour stops. However, he comes in off his best finish of the season with a T6 at the Zurich. He is 48th in GIR, but a horrid 175th in scrambling. So if he can keep it on the straight and narrow, he can offer upside especially at his price which sits 29 spots lower in salary versus the odds.

Jerry Kelly | $6,400 – Kelly’s got a couple of top 10 finishes here a long time ago. He missed the cut last year and his best finish since 2007 was a T28. However, he’s an excellent scrambler (T5) and sits 24th in bogey avoidance so he has some of the characteristics of a player who can succeed here. He’s played well his last two times out with a T18 at the RBC and a T22 at Zurich.

Spencer Levin | $5,900 – Levin played here three straight years from 2010 to 2012 and hasn’t played since. Though, during that three year stretch he made the cut all three years and put up two top 15 finishes. He is currently 32nd in ball striking, 50th in GIR, 48th in bogey avoidance and a decent 95th in scrambling. He fits the profile of someone who can succeed here.

Jason Bohn | $5,900 – Bohn is six for eight in cuts made, but has never seen the top 10. He’s made 11 of 14 cuts on Tour this season and has two top 20s since the calendar turned to 2015. He’s T48 in ball striking, 23rd in GIR, 58th in scrambling and seventh in bogey avoidance. His profile fits even if he hasn’t seen the leaderboard here.

Bo Van Pelt | $5,500 – Van Pelt is five for ten in cuts made at TPC Sawgrass. He’s got three top ten finishes including two since the 2007 renovation. He missed the cut at the Zurich the last time out, but was T9 at the RBC (on another Pete Dye course).

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.

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