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Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: February 16th

Eight games are on tap tonight in the NHL. Building a DFS team isn’t always easy, and on nights with a lot of options, it becomes even more challenging to find the right combination of players to go with. It’s easy to fall into the trap of targeting a bad defensive team, but even those teams occasionally play well. It’s important for cash lineups to find the perfect balance of teams to go with (I usually like to target three good matchups and stack players from those teams). And for GPP lineups it’s all about the high scoring games. With that, let’s take a look at each match up and sort through which players you should be looking to start tonight

Game Breakdowns:

 New York Rangers @ New York Islanders—Start time—7:00PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Rangers are 16-9-1 on the road this season
  • 4th in goals per game (3.07 G/GP)
  • 4th in goals against per game (2.35 GA/GP)
  • 9th ranked power play (20%)
  • 13th ranked penalty kill (82.6%)
  • Averaging 30.6 shots per game (11th in the NHL)

 

  • Islanders are 20-6-0 at home this season
  • 5th in goals per game (3.07 G/GP)
  • 23rd in goals against per game (2.77 GA/GP)
  • 11th ranked power play (19.1%)
  • 29th ranked penalty kill (73.6%)
  • Averaging 33.5 shots per game (2nd in the NHL)

The “Battle of New York” should be a high-scoring game, which is good news for DFS. The Islanders are favorites to win, but I like the matchup better for the Rangers. Both teams can score goals, but the Islanders are not very good defensively and have a terrible power play. This game should be a north-south skating game, and I find that suits the Rangers much better.

The obvious players to target for the Rangers are Rick Nash ($8600), Derick Brassard ($4700) and Mats Zuccarello ($5400), but I expect them to see a lot of the Leddy/Boychuk pairing. The duo I would consider using would be Derek Stepan ($4800) and Martin St.Louis ($4300). The down side is they don’t play on the power play together, but for their prices, I can live with that. On defense, the only option I would consider is Ryan McDonagh ($5000). His price tag isn’t great, but with Dan Boyle a game-time decision and McDonagh’s top power play minutes, he’s worth the play.

For the Islanders, I expect Jack Capuano to do everything possible to get John Tavares ($8800) and Andres Lee ($5600) away from the pairing of McDonagh/Girardi. It could be a difficult task, and with their prices being so high, the value isn’t really there. I would use them in a GPP if that’s the route you want to take. The piaring I would be most comfortable using would be Ryan Strome ($4000) and Frans Nielsen ($5200). They are both listed as C, which makes everything so complicated for no reason, but they could possibly find the net by the end of the night. On defense, the only player I would consider using is Lubomir Visnovsky ($3000).

All Games: Derek Stepan—C, Martin St.Louis—W, Ryan Mcdonagh—D, Cam Talbot—G, Frans Nielsen—C, Ryan Strome—C,

GPP Only: Rangers top line, John Tavares—C, Andres Lee—C, Lubomir Visnovsky—D.

Montreal Canadiens @ Detroit Red Wings—Start Time—7:30 PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Montreal is 16-8-1 on the road this season
  • 21st in goals per game (2.58 G/GP)
  • 1st in goals against per game (2.22 GA/GP)
  • 24th ranked power play (16.8%)
  • 6th ranked penalty kill (85.2%)
  • Averaging 28.3 shots per game (25th in the NHL)

 

  • Detroit is 17-4-7 at home this season
  • 7th in goals per game (2.93 G/GP)
  • 5th in goals against per game (2.43 GA/GP)
  • Top ranked power play (26.3%)
  • 11th ranked penalty kill (82.9%)
  • Averaging 29.6 shots per game (2oth in the NHL)

My Montreal Canadiens are in Detroit to take on the Red Wings in what should be a low scoring affair. Detroit is a very good overall team, but when you’re facing a goalie like Carey Price, goals will be hard to come by.

If you decide to go with the Habs, I suggest using Alex Galchenyuk ($4700) and Brendan Gallagher ($5300). Their prices are respectable, and Galchenyuk is still listed as a C. If you want to use Max Pacioretty ($9000) you can, but his line mates are below average and his price tag is way too much for me. On defense, both P.K Subban ($7300) and Andrei Markov ($5700) are solid options. I would look to use Markov because of his salary. And finally, if you want to spend the money, Carey Price ($9400) is the way to go. He gives the Canadiens a chance to win every night, and that should be the case tonight as well.

For Detroit, it’s all about their top two lines. I expect Henrik Zetterberg ($6300) and Gustav Nyquist ($5000) to see the top pairing of Markov/Subban all night, so I’ll  go with Pavel Datsyuk ($6000) and Tomas Tatar ($5500) for about the same price. On defense, I really like Danny Dekeyser ($2900) at his price, and he plays with Datsyuk/Tatar on the second power play unit.

All Games: Carey Price—G, Alex Galchenyuk—C, Brendan Gallagher—W, Andrei Markov—D, Pavel Datsyuk—C, Tomas Tatar—W, Danny Dekeyser—D

GPP only: Max Pacioretty—W, Henrik Zetterberg—C, Gustav Nyquist—W, PK Subban—D

Carolina Hurricanes @ Ottawa Senators—Start Time—7:30PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Carolina is 8-18-4 on the road this season
  • 29th in goals per game (2.15 G/GP)
  • 14th in goals against per game (2.63 GA/GP)
  • 25th ranked power play (16.6%)
  • 2nd ranked penalty kill (87.5%)
  • Averaging 29.8 shots per game (16th in the NHL)

 

  • Ottawa is 12-9-5 at home this season
  • 15th in goals per game (2.76 G/GP)
  • 21st in goals against per game (2.72 GA/GP)
  • 19th ranked power play (17.6%)
  • 9th ranked penalty kill (83.2%)
  • Averaging 301 shots per game (13th in the NHL)

The Hurricanes are not a very good team and just terrible offensively. Ottawa is an average team offensively, so I give them the edge in this matchup. If you want to take a risk tonight, the only Carolina players I would suggest using are Eric Staal ($5400) and Jiri Tlusly ($3700). The prices are very good, and they play together on the power play.

As for Ottawa, I really like the line of Mike Hoffman ($4500), Mika Zibanejab ($3600) and Bobby Ryan ($5500). They are by far the best line in Ottawa and should be able to find the back of the net at least once tonight, even more if Cam Ward gets the start. If you want to use all three in cash or GPP and pair them with Erik Karlsson ($7800), go for it. Robin Lehner ($7800) is also a good play in all formats at his price.

All Games: Ottawa top line, Erik Karlsson—D, Robin Lehner—G

GPP Only: Jiri Tlusly—W, Eric Staal—C

Edmonton Oilers @ Winnipeg Jets—Start Time—8:00PM

 Quick Stats

  • Edmonton is 7-16-7 on the road this season
  • 26th in goals per game (2.23 G/GP)
  • 29th in goals against per game (3.30 GA/GP)
  • 28th ranked power play (13.9%)
  • 24th ranked penalty kill (78.5%)
  • Averaging 28.1 shots per game (26th in the NHL)

 

  • Winnipeg is 14-10-4 at home this season
  • 20th in goals per game (2.67 G/GP)
  • 12th in goals against per game (2.57 GA/GP)
  • 16th ranked power play (18%)
  • 14th ranked penalty kill (81.4%)
  • Averaging 30 shots per game (14th in the NHL)

Edmonton is playing, so the entire DFS community will be stacking the Jets heavily, especially after the 7-2 beating they took in Ottawa. The entire Winnipeg first line of Andrew Ladd ($4700), Bryan Little ($5100) and Blake Wheeler ($5700) are going to be used quite a lot, and with good reason. If you want to try and move away from that line, I would look to go with Mark Scheifele ($4600) and Mathieu Perreault ($4800). Both options are still very good. On defense, Dustin Byfuglien ($8000) is of course a great play but his price makes it hard to fit him into any lineup. A great value play I like a lot is Tyler Myers ($4500). He’s seeing time on the power play and should be able to hit his value against a terrible team like Edmonton. In net, it looks like Ondrej Pavelec ($6600) will get the start, and if you’re willing to take the risk on him, it should work out just fine.

As for Edmonton—don’t.

All Games: Everyone I mentioned.

Arizona Coyotes @ Colorado Avalanche—Start Time—9:00PM

 Quick Stats

  • Arizona is 11-15-3 on the road this season
  • 27th in goals per game (2.19 G/GP)
  • 28th in goals against per game (3.23 GA/GP)
  • 5th ranked power play (22.4%)
  • 27th ranked penalty kill (78.1%)
  • Averaging 29.5 shots per game

 

  • Colorado is 14-11-3 at home this season
  • 24th in goals per game (2.45 G/GP)
  • 22nd in goals against per game (2.77 GA/GP)
  • 29th ranked power play (12.1%)
  • 12th ranked penalty kill (82.7%)
  • Averaging 28.5 shots per game (24th in the NHL)

The Coyotes aren’t very good, both offensively and defensively, so the usually bad Avalanche get a plus matchup here. Colorado doesn’t have a great offense, but they have the better offensive team on paper, and I expect them to be able to score some goals tonight.

For Colorado, the pairing of Nathan MacKinnon ($5600) and Gabriel Landeskog ($5400) is the one I would go with. I also like the pairing of Matt Duchene ($5700) and Jarome Iginla ($5800), but their prices are higher than MacKinnon/Landeskog and they don’t play on the power play together. If you want to really go deep, John Mitchelle ($3000) and Alex Tanguay ($4000) are 7K combined and even one goal between them should hit value. On defense, Tyson Barrie ($4600) is an excellent play. He’s price is very nice, and he should be able to pick up an assist or two tonight. Semyon Varlamov ($8100) is a great start against a team who can’t score, and I would use him in multiple lineups if I can fit him in.

Arizona also has a good matchup against a team that gives up a lot of shots on a regular basis. If the Coyotes are going to score goals, it’s coming from the blue line, so Keith Yandle ($5500) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($5600) are the two I would consider using. I wouldn’t recommend playing them in the same lineup, seeing as they don’t play together 5-on-5 (imagine how nice it would be if they did though), so Yandle would be my first choice. Up front, the options are limited, but Antione Vermette ($4100) and Tobias Rieder ($3300) are reasonably priced, and play together on the power play.

All Games: Nathan MacKinnon—C, Gabriel Landeskog—W, Alex Tanguay—W, Tyson Barrie—D, Semyon Varlamov—G, Keith Yandle—D, Oliver Ekman-Larsson—D.

GPP Only: Matt Duchene—C, Jarome Iginla—W, Antoine Vermette—C, Tobias Rieder—W, John Mitchelle—C.

Boston Bruins @ Calgary Flames—Start Time—9:00PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Boston is 11-11-3 on the road this season
  • 22nd in goals per game (2.58 G/GP)
  • 9th in goals against per game (2.47 GA/GP)
  • 23rd ranked power play (17.2%
  • 7th ranked penalty kill (83.8%)
  • Averaging 30.3 shots per game (12th in the NHL)

 

  • Calgary is 16-11-2 at home this season
  • 11th in goals per game (2.84 G/GP)
  • 10th in goals against per game (2.55 GA/GP)
  • 21st ranked power play (17.4%)
  • 23rd ranked penalty kill (79.4%)
  • Averaging 27.1 shots per game (28th in the NHL)

I sometimes like to go with my gut, because no matter what stats tell you, sometimes its just about going with what you feel. I’m feeling Boston tonight (that’s hard for a Habs fan to say) because they look like a team due to win, and Calgary might not be ready for that

For Boston, I like the duo of Milan Lucic ($4200) and David Krejci ($4400) for two reasons—I believe Calgary will match Brodie/Giordano with the Bergeron line and the price of Patrice Bergeron ($7500) and Brad Marchand ($4600) is just too high for my liking. As for defenseman, Zdeno Chara ($3900) drops below 4K, making him a very nice play if you want to pair him with Krejci/Lucic, seeing as they all play on the same power play unit. Tuukka Rask ($8700) should get the start tonight, but I’m not thrilled about his price.

Calgary is an interesting team. I don’t expect them to win, but they have proven they can score goals on a regular basis. Sean Monahan ($4700) and Jiri Hudler ($4600) are going to see a lot of Chara tonight, but I expect Bob Hartley to do his best to find them some space away from the giant defenseman. The duo I would most likely use is David Jones ($3700) and Mikael Backlund ($3700) who both play on the power play together. On defense, Raphael Diaz ($2500) is minimum price and playing on the top power play unit for the Flames. He’s worth taking the risk if you need to go cheap on the back end. If you want to go with a full stack, Mark Giordano ($5700) would complete the stack with Diaz/Backlund/Jones on the power play

All Games: Milan Lucic—W, David Krejci—C, Zdeno Chara—D, Mikael Backlund—C, David Jones—W, Mark Giordano—D

GPP Only: Patrice Bergeron—C, Brad Marchand—W, Tuukka Rask—G, Sean Monahan—C, Jiri Hudler—W, Raphael Diaz—D.

Minnesota Wild @ Vancouver Canucks—Start Time—10:00PM

 Quick Stats

  • Minnesota is 12-13-2 on the road this season
  • 17th in goals per game (2.74 G/GP)
  • 18th in goals against per game (2.67 GA/GP)
  • 26th ranked power play (15.9%)
  • 4th ranked penalty kill (85.7%)
  • Averaging 31.5 shots per game (5th in the NHL)

 

  • Vancouver is 15-11-1 at home this season
  • 14th in goals per game (2.78 G/GP)
  • 13th in goals against per game (2.62 GA/GP)
  • 18th ranked power play (17.6%)
  • 5th ranked penalty kill (85.3%)
  • Averaging 29.6 shots per game (19th in the NHL)

The Wild have been one of the hottest teams recently—going 8-0-2 in their last ten games. I expect their strong play to continue, even on the road. The Canucks have been an average team lately, and pretty much all season, but they still have a decent matchup as well.

For Minnesota, I really like the combo of Mikko Koivu ($5200) and Jason Pominville ($6600). Pominville’s price is a bit high for my liking, but he’s still cheaper than his fellow winger Zach Parise ($7600). If you’re looking for a cheaper pair, Thomas Vanek ($5200) and Mikael Grandlund ($3600) are a combo I would consider using, but they don’t play on the power play together, so I’ll spend a bit more for the first option. Devan Dubnyk is confirmed to start for the Wild and has been solid since coming over from Arizona.

If you decide to go with the Canucks, the first line is a good option, but I don’t like the fact that Radim Vrbabta ($6800) isn’t playing on that line. Instead, I’d look to use Chris Higgins ($4500) and Linden Vey ($2900) as a cheaper alternative. They both play on the power play together and benefit from having Vrbata on their line. If you want to pair a defenseman with them, Dan Hamhuis ($3200) is the player I would recommend.

All Games: Mikko Koivu—C, Jason Pominville—W, Zach Parise—W, Devan Dubnyk—G, Chris Higgins—W, Linden Vey—C, Dan Hamhuis—D.

GPP Only: Thomas Vanek—W, Mikael Grandlund—C, Henrik & Daniel Sedin

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Los Angeles Kings—Start Time—10:30PM

Quick Stats:

  • Tampa Bay is 12-11-5 on the road this season
  • 1st in goals per game (3.22 G/GP)
  • 14th in goals against per game (2.62 GA/GP)
  • 21st ranked power play (17.3%)
  • 11th ranked penalty kill (82.7%)
  • Averaging 29.7 shots per game (18th in the NHL)

 

  • Los Angeles is 18-6-6 at home this season
  • 18th in goals per game (2.74 G/GP)
  • 11th in goals against per game (2.56 GA/GP)
  • 12th ranked power play (18.9%)
  • 26th ranked penalty kill (78.2%)
  • Averaging 31.5 shots per game (6th in the NHL)

The final game of the night should be a beauty. The Kings are one of the best teams at home this season, and Tampa is playing their second game in as many nights. Probably the hottest line in the NHL right now is the second line of Dwight King ($3900), Jeff Carter ($6500) and Tyler Toffoli ($7100), but their prices are so high that playing them isn’t really worth it. Marian Gaborik ($5300) and Anze Kopitar ($5200) have seen their price drop because of the recent success of the second line. Tampa Bay, for some strange reason, has Andrej Sustr paired with Hedman, and I expect that pairing to be out against the Carter line, leaving a lot of space for the top line. On defense, Drew Doughty ($5500) is reasonably priced, and plays on the top power play unit with Gaborik/Kopitar. If you find yourself unable to fit Doughty in your lineup, Jake Muzzin ($4500) is another good alternative. It might not be ideal, but if Martin Jones ($6500) gets the start, I’ll be plugging him in a few of my lineups at his low price.

As for Tampa Bay, Doughty/Regehr will surely match up against their second line, and Steven Stamkos ($8300) isn’t a great value tonight. If you do decide to go with Tampa, Stamkos and Alex Killorn ($3700) play together both 5 on 5 and on the power play. On defense, Victor Hedman ($5400) is always a good play, and he plays with Killorn/Stamkos on the power play. In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy ($7200) has put up decent numbers in the NHL the season, and is a good GPP play if you don’t want to spend on the goaltending position.

All Games: Marian Gaborik—W, Anze Kopitar—C, Drew Doughty—D, Jake Muzzin—D, Martine Jones—G, Steven Stamkos—C, Alex Killorn—W, Victor Hedman—D.

GPP Only: Kings second line, Tampa second line, Andrei Vasilevskiy—G.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

 Center/Winger Stack

  1. Nathan MacKinnon/Gabriel Landeskog—Colorado Avalanche—$11000
  2. David Krejci/ Milan Lucic—Boston Bruins—$8600
  3. Linden Vey/ Chris Higgins—Vancouver Canucks—$7400
  4. Bryan Little/ Blake Wheeler—Winnipeg Jets—$10,800
  5. Alex Galchenyuk/ Brendan Gallagher—Montreal Canadiens—$10000
  6. Mika Zibanejad/ Bobby Ryan—Ottawa Senators—$9100
  7. Derick Brassard/ Rick Nash—New York Rangers—$13300

Defenseman

  1. Drew Doughty—Los Angeles Kings—$5500
  2. Zdeno Chara—Boston Bruins—$3900
  3. Tyler Myers—Winnipeg Jets—$4500
  4. Tyson Barrie—Colorado Avalanche—$4600
  5. Keith Yandle—Arizona Coyotes—$5500
  6. Jake Muzzin—Los Angeles Kings—$4500
  7. Dustin Byfuglien—Winnipeg Jets—$8000

 Goalies

(Make sure to check www.leftwinglock.com for starting goalies)

  1. Ondrej Pavelec—Winnipeg Jets—$6600
  2. Martin Jones—Los Angeles Kings—$6500
  3. Carey Price—Montreal Canadiens—$9400
  4. Semyon Varlamov—Colorado Avalanche—$8100
  5. Robin Lehner—Ottawa Senators—$7800
  6. Tuukka Rask—Boston Bruins—$8700
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