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Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: February 18th

Photo Credit: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images North America
Photo Credit: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images North America

Six games are on tap tonight in the NHL. Building a DFS team isn’t always easy, and on nights with a lot of options, it becomes even more challenging to find the right combination of players to go with. It’s easy to fall into the trap of targeting a bad defensive team, but even those teams occasionally play well. It’s important for cash line-ups to find the perfect balance of teams to go with (I usually like to target three good matchups and stack players from those teams), and for GPP lineups it’s all about the high scoring games. With that, let’s take a look at each matchup and sort through which players you should be looking to start tonight.

Game Breakdowns:

Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators—Start Time—7:00PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Montreal is 17-8-1 at home this season
  • 23rd in goals per game (2.57 G/GP)
  • 1st in goals against per game (2.18 GA/GP)
  • 25th ranked power play (16.7%)
  • 4th ranked penalty kill (85.4%)
  • Averaging 28.3 shots per game (25th in the NHL)

 

  • Ottawa is 12-10-5 at home this season
  • 14th in goals per game (2.76 G/GP)
  • 21st on goals against per game (2.78 GA/GP)
  • 22nd ranked power play (17.3%)
  • 13th ranked penalty kill (82.1%)
  • Averaging 30.2 shots per game (14th in the NHL)

The night starts off with my Habs taking on the Sens at Canadian Tire Place. The Canadiens are coming off a 2-0 win against the Red Wings and are looking to keep things rolling tonight. This matchup should be a good one to target, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some goals by the end of the night.

Let’s start with Montreal, who I think should be able to come out of this one with a win. Max Pacioretty ($9000) is always a great option, but I don’t like his line mates very much or his price tag. The pairing I will be going with is Alex Galchenyuk ($4900) and Brendan Gallagher ($4500). They both see time on the power play together, and with Ottawa likely to start Andrew Hammond in net, the pair could be in for a big night. On defense, it’s basically the same two guys all the time, P.K Subban ($7400) and Andrei Markov ($5300). Subban’s price isn’t ideal, but if you want to go with a full stack, those four are the guysI would go with. In net, Carey Price is getting the night off, so it will be Dustin Tokarski ($7100). He has a decent matchup, but let’s face it, he isn’t very good, so I’d look to spend my money elsewhere.

For the Ottawa Senators, I’m in love with second line of Mike Hoffman ($4500), Mika Zibanejab ($4200), and Bobby Ryan ($5700). The trio is reasonably priced, and I expect them to lead the way for the Sens. On defense, the obvious play is Erik Karlsson ($7600), but if you want to save some salary, Cody Ceci ($3600) is a great option and plays on the second power play unit the Zibanejad line.

All Games: Alex Galchenyuk—C, Brendan Gallagher—W, Andrei Markov—D, P.K. Subban—D, Ottawa second line, Cody Ceci—D.

GPP Only—Max Pacioretty—W, Dustin Tokarski—G, Erik Karlsson—D.

Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks—Start Time—7:30PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Detroit is 14-9-3 on the road this season
  • 9th in goals per game (2.87 G/GP)
  • 5th in goals against per game (2.42 GA/GP)
  • 1st ranked power play (26%)
  • 10th ranked penalty kill (83%)
  • Averaging 29.5 shots per game (20th in the NHL)

 

  • Chicago is 18-7-3 at home this season
  • 8th in goals per game (2.90 G/GP)
  • 3rd in goals against per game (2.26 GA/GP)
  • 13th ranked power play (18.9%)
  • 1st ranked penalty kill (87.9%)
  • Averaging 34.6 shots per game (1st in the NHL)

This is going to be an amazing game as it features two of the best overall teams in the league. I’m going to give the edge to Chicago because they’re at home, but it could go either way.

For Detroit, I’m going to spend my money on Pavel Datsyuk ($6000) and Tomas Tatar ($5100). Their value isn’t great, and I expect the top paring of Keith/Rozival to be out there a lot with them, but they play on the power play together and are the mostly likely to contribute offensively. Gustav Nyquist ($4800) was recently moved to the third line, so if you want to save some money, Henrik Zetterberg ($6300) and Justin Abdelkader ($3600) are a cheaper option that I also like. On defense, Danny DeKeyser ($2800) is almost minimum price and plays with Datsyuk/Tatar on the power play. If you decide to go with Zetterberg/Abdelkader, Niklas Kronwall ($4300) is the player I would use.

Chicago is definitely one of the better offensive teams in the league and should be able to score at least three goals on the night. Jonathan Toews ($7300) and Brandon Saad ($5300) are reasonably priced, and they play on the team’s top power play together. Marian Hossa ($8800) has been good lately, but at that price, you can find much better value somewhere else. Patrick Kane ($8500) and Brad Richards are a pair I like, but because they don’t play on the same power play together, I would stick with the Toews/Saad instead. On defense, Brent Seabrook ($4900) is an excellent play as he plays on the team’s top power play unit. Another defenseman I really like is Michal Rozsival ($2500) who is minimum price and playing on the second power play unit.

All Games: Justin Abdelkader—W, Henrik Zetterberg—C, Pavel Datsyuk—C, Tomas Tatar—W, Danny Dekeyser—D, Jonathan Toews—C, Brandon Saad—W, Brent Seabrook—D.

GPP Only: Gustav Nyquist—W, Marian Hossa—W, Patrick Kane—W, Brad Richards—C, Michal Rozsival—D.

Minnesota Wild @ Calgary Flames—Start Time—9:30PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Minnesota is 12-14-2 on the road this season
  • 18th in goals per game (2.73 G/GP)
  • 18th in goals against per game (2.68 GA/GP)
  • 26th ranked power play (15.8%)
  • 3rd ranked penalty kill (85.8%)
  • Averaging 31.4 shots per game (6th in the NHL)

 

  • Calgary is 17-11-2 at home this season
  • 10th in goals per game (2.86 G/GP)
  • 11th in goals against per game (2.56 GA/GP)
  • 18th raked power play (17.7%)
  • 22nd ranked penalty kill (79.7%)
  • Averaging 27.1 shots per game (28th in the NHL)

I don’t think anyone expected Calgary to be this good this season. They’re taking on a Minnesota team that is 8-1-1 in their last ten and making a push for a playoff spot. It’s hard to go against a team that’s been so good recently, but I expect Calgary to come out of this one victorious.

For Minnesota, I really like the duo of Charlie Coyle ($3500) and Nino Niederreiter ($4100). I expect the top pairing of Giordano/Brodie to be busy stopping the first two lines, and both Coyle/Nino play on the second power play unit together. If you’re looking for a defenseman to pair with them, Matt Dumba ($2600) is just above minimum price and playing on the second power play unit with them. For a combined price of $10,200, that’s not too shabby.

Now to the Flames who are looking to push their winning streak to three games. I’m a huge fan of Johnny Gaudreau ($4400) and an even bigger fan of Sean Monahan ($4900). If you want to go full Calgary stack, Jiri Hudler ($4900) completes the line and T.J Brodie ($4800) plays with them on the power play. Mark Giordano ($7500) is always a great play, but his value isn’t great so I’ll be staying away from him to save some salary. In net, Jonas Hiller ($7900) is confirmed to get the start and is below $8,000, making him an excellent play tonight.

All Games: Charlie Coyle—W, Nino Niederreiter—W, Matt Dumba—D, Flames top line, T.J Brodie—D, Jonas Hiller—G

GPP Only: Zach Parise—W ($8100)& Jason Pominville –W ($6700), Mark Giordano—D.

Boston Bruins @ Edmonton Oilers—Start Time—10:00PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Boston is 11-11-4 on the road this season
  • 22nd in goals per game (2.59 G/GP)
  • 9th in goals against per game (2.50 GA/GP)
  • 24th ranked power play (16.9%)
  • 7th ranked penalty kill (83.4%)
  • Averaging 30.2 shots per game (13th in the NHL)

 

  • Edmonton is 9-16-2 at home this season
  • 26th in goals per game (2.26 G/GP)
  • 29th in goals against per game (3.31 GA/GP)
  • 28th ranked power play (14.8%)
  • 25th ranked penalty kill (78.6%)
  • Averaging 28.0 shots per game (26th in the NHL)

The Oilers almost ruined the party Tuesday in Winnipeg by taking the Jets to a shootout. Boston is in town tonight, and they aren’t the Jets, so I expect Boston to have their way with Edmonton and fill the net in what should be a pretty easy game for the Bruins.

If you’re going to stack a team tonight, it’s Boston. I’m perfectly fine with paying up for Patrice Bergeron ($7900) and Brad Marchand ($5000). They don’t play on the power play together, but against Edmonton, that doesn’t bother me. If you want to save some money, I suggest going with Milan Lucic ($4000) and David Krejci ($4400), but Lucic isn’t expected to see any power play time, and I just don’t feel good about using a player who isn’t on the power play every night. It’s rare that I’ll suggest this, but to benefit from both power play units, I’ll be using Zdeno Chara ($4200) and Dougie Hamilton ($4500). Chara’s price went up since Tuesday, but his price is still fair and he should hit his value tonight. In net, Tuukka Rask ($8800) has the best chance of winning, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Niklas Svedberg ($7200) get the nod. I would check to see who gets the start and roll with them.

I don’t suggest using any Edmonton players, but last time I said that, they provided decent DFS value, so I won’t make that mistake again. If you find yourself wanting to be bold, Derek Roy ($3300) and Nail Yakupov ($4800) are the only two I would roll with, but to be honest, I wouldn’t do it, but…….you never know.

All Games: Everyone I mentioned (excluding Edmonton of course).

GPP Only: The Oilers I mentioned.

Los Angeles Kings @ Colorado Avalanche—Start Time—10:00 PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Los Angeles is 7-12-6 on the road this season
  • 16th in goals per game (2.75 G/GP)
  • 10th in goals against per game (2.55 GA/GP)
  • 14th ranked power play (18.6%)
  • 26th ranked penalty kill (78.5%)
  • Averaging 31.4 shots per game (5th in the NHL)

 

  • Colorado is 15-11-3 at home this season
  • 24th in goals per game (2.49 G/GP)
  • 20th in goals against per game (2.75 GA/GP)
  • 29th ranked power play (12.4%)
  • 12th ranked penalty kill (82.8%)
  • Averaging 28.6 shots per game (24th in the NHL)

If this game was being played in LA, I would recommend stacking the Kings, but they are so bad away from Staples Center that Colorado has a better chance of winning tonight. The Avalanche don’t have great numbers this season, but I expect the Kings to continue being terrible away from home.

The Kings still have a pretty good matchup tonight. If I was going to use the Kings, the duo of Anze Kopitar ($5400) and Marian Gaborik ($4900) is the way to go. They are reasonably priced and should hit value against a terrible puck possession team. Jeff Carter ($8200) is also a good play, but it will be hard for him to hit his value at that price, and I’m not of fan of pairing him with Tyler Toffoli ($7200) at his current price. If you decide to go with Kopitar/Gaborik, Jake Muzzin ($4600) is reasonably priced as well and plays with them on the top power play unit.

For Colorado, I expect Patrick Roy to try his best to get his top line away from the top pairing of Doughty/Regehr. I like the duo of Ryan O’Reilly ($4500) and Nathan MacKinnon ($6100) at their current prices. If you really want the most bang for your buck, Alex Tanguay ($3900) and John Mitchell ($3100) are the way to go. Not only do they play together, but they also play on the team’s second power play unit together. On defense, Tyson Barrie ($4800) is always going to be an option as long as he plays on the team’s top power play unit. In net, Roy decided to throw a curveball at DFS players and pull Semyon Varlamov ($8100) after the second period Monday night. Assuming Roy doesn’t pull the same stunt twice (L.A will generate more than five shots after two periods), I will roll with him tonight if I need to save some cap space.

All Games: Anze Kopitar—C, Marian Gaborik—W, Jake Muzzin—D, Ryan O’Reilly—W, Nathan MacKinnon—C, Alex Tanguay—W, John Mitchell—C, Tyson Barrie—D, Semyon Varlamov—G

GPP only: Jeff Carter—C, Tyler Toffoli—W, Matt Duchene ($7700)—C, Jarome Iginla ($7700)—W,

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Anaheim Ducks—Start Time—10:30 PM

 Quick Stats:

  • Tampa Bay is 13-12-5 on the road this season
  • 1st in goals per game (3.20 G/GP)
  • 16th in goals against per game (2.63 GA/GP)
  • 23rd ranked power play (17.2%)
  • 9th ranked penalty kill (83%)
  • Averaging 29.6 shots per game (18th in the NHL)

 

  • Anaheim is 19-7-3 at home this season
  • 11th in goals per game (2.84 G/GP)
  • 19th in goals against per game (2.72)
  • 17th ranked power play (179%)
  • 16th ranked penalty kill (81%)
  • Averaging 30.1 shots per game (16th in the NHL)

The Lightning are not very good on the road, but they have the best offense in the NHL, and they are taking on a Duck’s team that has terrible goaltending. I expect Tampa Bay to be able to fill the net regardless of who starts for Anaheim.

For the Lightning, I like the duo of Tyler Johnson ($5800) and Nikita Kucherov ($4800), who both play together on the second power play unit. If you didn’t spend up on the earlier games, Ryan Callahan ($5600) and Steven Stamkos ($8900) play together on the first line and on the top power play unit, but at $14,500 combined, that’s too much for me. If you go with Johnson/Kucherov, I would look to use Anton Stralman ($3200) who plays with them on the power play. For some reason, Ben Bishop ($7600) is still below 8K, and I’m not complaining. If you need to save some money in net, Bishop is a good play.

For Anaheim, I expect them to trail a lot in this game, which means Corey Perry ($8600) and Ryan Getzlaf ($6500) will be on the ice a lot trying to score goals. If you can’t fit the two studs in your lineup, Ryan Kesler ($5400) and Kyle Palmieri ($3800) play together 5on5 and on the power play, and I really like their value. With Sami Vatanen on IR, Hampus Lindholm ($3700) will get a chance to play on the top power play unit and is an excellent GPP option.

All Games: Tyler Johnson—C, Nikita Kucherov—W, Anton Stralman—D, Ben Bishop—G, Ryan Kesler—C, kyle Palmieri—W.

GPP Only: Steven Stamkos—C, Ryan Callahan—W, Victor Hedman ($5000)—D (paired with Stamkos&Callahan), Getzlaf—C &Perry—W, Hampus Lindholm—D.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

 Center/Winger Stacks

  1. Alex Galchenyuk/Brendan Gallagher—Montreal Canadiens—$9400
  2. Sean Monahan/Johnny Gaudreau—Calgary Flames—$9300
  3. Patrice Bergeron/Brad Marchand—Boston Bruins—$12,900
  4. Charlie Coyle/Nino Niederreiter—Minnesota Wild—$7600
  5. Nathan Mackinnon/ Ryan O’Reilly—Colorado Avalanche—$10,600
  6. Tyler Johnson/Nikita Kucherov—Tampa Bay Lightning—$10,600
  7. Jonathan Toews/Brandon Saad—Chicago Blackhwaks—$12,600

Defensemen

  1. Zdeno Chara—Boston Bruins—$4200
  2. Andrei Markov—Montreal Canadiens– $5300
  3. Cody Ceci—Ottawa Senators—$3600
  4. Tyson Barrie—Colorado Avalanche—$4800
  5. T.J. Brodie—Calgary Flames—$4800
  6. Dougie Hamilton—Boston Bruins—$4500
  7. Anton Stralman—Tampa Bay Lightning—$3200

Goalies

(Make sure to check www.leftwinglock.com for starting goalies)

  1. Tuukka Rask—Boston Bruins—$8800
  2. Jonas Hiller—Calgary Flames—$7900
  3. Niklas Svedberg—Boston Bruins—$7200
  4. Ben Bishop—Tampa Bay lightning—$7600
  5. Semyon Varlamov—Colorado Avalanche– $8100
  6. Dustin Tokarski—Montreal Canadiens—$7100
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