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Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: February 28th

This post covers both five game afternoon and evening slates of NHL contests on DraftKings.

Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

NHL DFS ex.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Teams to Target

Early Slate

Man, good luck with this slate. The Panthers are hosting the Sabres, which is obviously attractive, but the Panthers are just not a good offensive team. Jaromir Jagr might help, but his presumed insertion to the lineup today makes things a bit tricky considering it’s not clear where he’ll slot in. Plus, as I’ve mentioned several times recently, the Sabres are not giving up goals these days. Michal Neuvirth is playing out of his mind, and Buffalo is one game away from not allowing an opponent to score more than three goals in a game all month. I think Florida may be a team to fade. But for cash games, the pairing of Nick Bjugstad ($4,200, C) and Jussi Jokinen ($3,400, C) provides good value.

The two teams that grade out the best in my little matchup system are Boston hosting Arizona and the Islanders hosting the Hurricanes. Both of those teams played last night, so that takes a bit of the shine off them, but there aren’t necessarily better options. If Chad Johnson is in net for the Isles instead of Halak, the Canes turn into a very a nice play. The Isles have used two different goaltenders in nine of their 11 back-to-backs, so I’m expecting Johnson in net. But if Halak ends up going, I’ll probably pass on Canes and go with the Panthers as my third option in the early slate.

The top lines from Boston and New York are where you should probably spend your money in this slate. The cheap options provided by Florida, Carolina depth lines, and even the depth lines of Boston and New York, mean you should be able to fit the expensive guys in your lineups. For Boston that’s Patrice Bergeron ($8,000, C), Brad Marchand ($5,200, W) and Reilly Smith ($4,500, W). For the Isles that’s John Tavares ($9,100, C), Anders Lee ($5,000, C) and Josh Bailey ($4,300, W).

If Johnson starts for New York and I go with Canes, I’m leaning towards Carolina’s second line over the first line. New York’s top line and top D pair are very good possession-wise, so the second line should have an easier individual matchup. Plus, Jeff Skinner ($5,600, W) is a first line talent playing on the second line. He’s paired with Riley Nash ($2,700, C) and Elias Lindholm ($3,500, C). Add John-Michael Liles ($3,200, D) to get good exposure to both power play units.

Late Slate

While the afternoon slate is a bit tough because of limited good options, the evening slate might have too many. The top play is obvious; St. Louis in Edmonton is a big mismatch. You probably want exposure to both of their top lines, but the value of the top line is really nice today. Get you some David Backes ($5,000, C), Alex Steen ($6,100, W) and T.J. Oshie ($5,500, W). If you’re playing multiple lineups, you also need exposure to Jori Lehtera ($3,100, C), Jaden Schwartz ($5,100, W) and Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,900, W).

After the Blues, Ottawa and Minnesota both grade out pretty well. They both have good matchups against San Jose and Colorado, respectively, and Ottawa has been an above average offense lately while Minnesota has been on fire. For the Senators there are no real concerns about any line having a bad matchup because Colorado is a bad possession team basically across the board, so go with the top line of Mika Zibanejad ($4,400, C), Bobby Ryan ($6,000, W) and Mike Hoffman ($4,600, W). In Minnesota the line with Zach Parise ($7,700, W) on it is listed as the second line in some places, but they’re the top line to me. Go with Parise, Mikael Granlund ($4,100, C) and Jason Pominville ($4,600, W).

St. Louis, Ottawa and Minnesota are all on the road, which isn’t necessarily bad but it’s not ideal. So if you’re hesitant about any of them, Montreal hosting Toronto and Philadelphia hosting the Rangers are also options. I’m probably sticking with the three teams listed above, but there is value on Montreal’s second line centered by Tomas Plekanec ($5,300, C) and on Philly’s second line with Sean Couturier ($3,300, C) and Jakub Voracek ($6,300, W).

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

Early Slate

  1. Carl Soderberg/Loui Eriksson – Boston Bruins
  2. Nick Bjugstad/Jussi Jokinen – Florida Panthers
  3. Patrice Bergeron/Brad Marchand – Boston Bruins
  4. Riley Nash/Jeff Skinner – Carolina Hurricanes
  5. John Tavares/Josh Bailey – New York Islanders

Late Slate

  1. David Backes/Alex Steen – St. Louis Blues
  2. Mikael Granlund/Zach Parise – Minnesota Wild
  3. Jori Lehtera/Jaden Schwartz – St. Louis Blues
  4. Mikko Koivu/Thomas Vanek – Minnesota Wild
  5. Mika Zibanejad/Bobby Ryan – Ottawa Senators

Defense

Early Slate

  1. Aaron Ekblad – $3,400 – Florida Panthers
  2. Zdeno Chara – $4,600 – Boston Bruins
  3. Johnny Boychuk – $5,300 – New York Islanders
  4. John-Michael Liles – $3,200 – Carolina Hurricanes
  5. Brian Campbell – $3,200 – Florida Panthers

Late Slate

  1. Ryan Suter – $4,200 – Minnesota Wild
  2. Brent Burns – $6,600 – San Jose Sharks
  3. Dan Boyle – $3,900 – New York Rangers
  4. Alex Pietrangelo – $5,700 – St. Louis Blues
  5. Erik Karlsson – $7,400 – Ottawa Senators

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Early Slate

  1. Niklas Svedberg* – $7,000 – Boston Bruins
  2. Tuukka Rask – $8,800 – Boston Bruins
  3. Jaroslav Halak – $7,500 – New York Islanders
  4. Chad Johnson* – $7,000 – New York Islanders
  5. Keith Kinkaid* – $6,600 – New Jersey Devils
  6. Roberto Luongo – $7,900 – Florida Panthers

Late Slate

  1. Dustin Tokarski* – $7,000 – Montreal Canadiens
  2. Carey Price – $9,400 – Montreal Canadiens
  3. Alex Stalock* – $6,600 – San Jose Sharks
  4. Brian Elliott – $7,400 – St. Louis Blues
  5. Semyon Varlamov – $7,200 – Colorado Avalanche

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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